Most Britons think that World War III is likely in the next decade, according to new polling.

YouGov found that 53% of the population think a global conflict is probable in the next 5-10 years, a 12-point increase from a year ago. A total of 16% believe this outcome is “very likely”, while 37% believe it is “fairly likely”. Less than a third of respondents (32%) think World War III beginning in that timeframe is unlikely, including 7% who consider it “very unlikely”. Last year, the proportion of voters who thought the outcome was unlikely stood at 42%.

This attitude is shared across different age groups. A majority of those aged 25 and over think World War III will take place in the next decade. The only age group surveyed where there is no such majority is the 18-24 demographic, yet there is still a plurality (46%) who see an imminent global conflict as likely. Women are significantly more likely than men to hold this view at 59% to 46%. While only 22% of women believe that a third world war is unlikely to happen in the next few years, this figure rises to 41% among men.

Additionally, over half of Britons (54%) say they have little to no confidence in the UK military’s ability to effectively defend the country. Only 36% have confidence in the armed forces in the event of another global conflict, including 5% who express “a great deal of confidence”. Reform UK voters are least likely to have confidence in the army, at 22%. Older age groups are also far more skeptical of the British military: 65% of over-65s claim they have little or no confidence in the armed forces, compared to 40% of those aged 18-24.

The polling was carried out this month against the backdrop of debates over whether Britain should involve itself in the US-Israeli war against Iran. YouGov data from the beginning of March, shortly after the initial strikes, showed that a plurality of British voters opposed the action (49%) compared to 28% who supported it. Asked the same question a week later, the proportion of respondents who opposed the US-Israeli operation rose to 59%. While Reform UK and Conservative supporters backed the strikes by a majority and plurality respectively, an opposite view was taken by voters for the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and Greens across both surveys.

While the new YouGov figures about a potential third world war mark a rise in public fears since 2025, the same pollster found in 2024 that 53% of Britons thought such a conflict would take place within the next decade. A plurality said that a Western alliance would triumph over combinations of opponents including Russia, China and Iran.

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is UnHerd’s Deputy Editor, Newsroom.

RobLownie

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