Just about every issue related to gender identity and trans kids has declined in favorability in the United States in the past few years. Support for medical transition, for trans girls competing in girls’ sports, and for dividing spaces by gender identity instead of sex are all declining.

Now, a new Gallup poll suggests not just scientific or legal objections to “changing genders”, but moral objections are rising. Only 38% of those polled considered gender transition morally acceptable, while 57% considered it morally unacceptable. The figures form a broader trend, where net acceptability is on the decline, compared to previous years — this year it was -19%, whereas last year it was -14% and in 2021 just -5%.

Unsurprisingly, what’s considered morally reprehensible differs along party lines; Republicans are more likely to reject gender transition, and Democrats are more likely to favor it. Yet Gallup noted “record-low points in moral acceptability” for the country at large. What’s changed?

For one thing, more Americans understand what falls beneath the umbrella of “trans rights”. While it may be suggested that those who modify their bodies or opt into categories at odds with sex deserve the same basic protections against discrimination as other citizens, the data show that the general population sees the specifics of trans rights. That includes males having legal access to women’s spaces, from locker rooms to prisons, as well as the reality that the evidence for youth gender medicine is of very low quality. It’s impossible to know who will benefit and who will be harmed.

Further to this, the censorious nature of cancel culture prevented many Democrats and liberals from asking questions and dissenting to the institutionalization of gender identity over the past decade, leading to “preference falsification”. Many people expressed support, hiding their real feelings, for fear of recrimination. Now they can speak freely, based on greater knowledge of the issues, with more support from other dissenters.

But perhaps they also see that what was thought of as a movement for liberation and equality has, in fact, wreaked havoc on the country. Transgender issues have proved remarkably divisive for families and communities. It therefore makes sense if the population at large, on a moral level, concludes that institutionalizing gender identity can lead to more harm than good.

Some of that pain has hobbled the Democrats in particular. The party’s politicians still can’t support policies that the majority of Americans want to see passed. This includes dividing sports by sex, not gender identity, or ensuring parents are kept informed of their children’s social transitions at school. There is, however, cause for optimism as some Democrats have defected from their party on recent bills.

Yet just last week, at a Senate hearing called “Protecting Our Children: Exposing the Dangers of Irreversible Gender Transition Procedures on Minors”, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders repeated falsehoods about the science of gender-affirming care. “What the medical and scientific community tells us is that gender affirming care is associated with a lower risk of depression, severe anxiety, and suicidal thoughts,” he said. Yet this ignored the caution by the American Society of Plastic Surgeons against gender surgery for minors, due to the low-quality evidence involved in those very assertions, as well as the unknown benefits and harms.

More than anything, then, this Gallup poll illustrates just how far Democrats still have to go — not just to catch up and garner votes from the majority of Americans, but also to match their moral compasses.

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Lisa Selin Davis is the author of Tomboy. She writes at Broadview on Substack.

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