Enoch Powell may not be a household name in America, yet he famously offered a verdict on political careers that John Cornyn, the senior senator from Texas, might find that it hits a little too close to the ranch right now. “All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure,” Powell said, “because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs.”

There have always been exceptions, of course, such as the Roman emperor Augustus, or Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore. Until recently, Cornyn, though not in their league, might fairly have considered himself a political winner as well. For decades, he easily chalked up a string of election victories. However, with Donald Trump’s surprise endorsement of his Republican primary opponent, Ken Paxton yesterday, Cornyn suddenly finds himself facing the very real possibility that he may soon be out on his ear, like the recently vanquished Thomas Massie of Kentucky.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Ted Cruz was the annoying one — the Tea Party obstructionist unloved in his own party, famously described by former House speaker John Boehner as “Lucifer in the flesh”. When Beto O’Rourke ran for the Senate in 2018 it was against Cruz, because he thought he stood a chance of winning. Against Cornyn, a party stalwart and veteran of Texas politics, he would have flamed out much earlier.

And had Paxton not decided to challenge Cornyn, that self-assured dominance would most likely have continued against the Democrat candidate James Talarico. Although the victory of the uber-progressive aw-shucks seminarian over Jasmine Crockett sparked much enthusiasm among Democrats and their media stenographers back in March, Texans have seen this movie before. Most polls showed Cornyn winning in the Senate race in November; Paxton, dogged by a multitude of scandals and levels of charm that make Cruz look like Cary Grant, had a much tougher ride.

This, of course, is what Cornyn has been warning against ever since he failed to win an overall majority in the first Republican primary. He and many others in the party establishment called on Paxton to stand down for the greater good. However, Paxton, having been roundly abused for months in merciless attack ads, was not in a “greater good” kind of mood. The Jason Voorhees of Texas politics, he has survived serious accusations of corruption, impeachment and denunciations from his own side and come out fighting. Perhaps this is why Trump likes him — besides the 100-odd lawsuits he filed against the Biden administration, of course.

Against this, Cornyn’s attempts to play by the rules of Big Man politics have ended not just in failure, but in humiliation. The millions spent on ads in which he pledged his fealty to Trump, the photograph of himself reading The Art of the Deal (“highly recommended”), the 1000-mile-long stretch of highway he had just proposed naming the “Trump Interstate” in the President’s honor: clearly, it was all for nought.

Cornyn’s not out yet, of course. Although early voting has begun, the final result will not be known until 26 May. Yet when he spoke at a campaign event in the city of Lubbock after Trump endorsed Paxton, he seemed rattled: “I think that will certainly have an impact but we’re not giving up the fight. I know who gets to choose our senators, and it’s the people of TX and there’s no substitute for that.” He then canceled his planned campaign events for Wednesday and flew back to Washington.

There will doubtless be much rejoicing in the Talarico camp over the next couple of days. For while Cornyn’s humiliation is his to bear alone, it shall be as nothing compared to the humiliation Trump and the Republicans will endure if the senator’s warnings about his opponent’s weaknesses prove correct.

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Daniel Kalder is an author based in Texas. Previously, he spent ten years living in the former Soviet bloc. His latest book, Dictator Literature, is published by Oneworld. He also writes on Substack: Thus Spake Daniel Kalder.

DanielKalder

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