Could Malcolm Offord, Reform UK’s leader in Scotland, be the next first minister after Thursday’s Holyrood elections? A glance at the polls suggests it’s an unlikely outcome, but, as the party sits neck and neck with Labour for second place, Reform is increasingly positioning itself for power north of the border.

Finishing equal or close to Labour would be an impressive outcome for a man who only took over the party in January. However, despite this rapid rise, Reform still has some way to go to become the biggest party at Holyrood and Offord himself has much to prove to a public who have in recent years shown support for parties of the Left.

Achieving second place would be dramatic, given the series of controversies surrounding Offord in recent months. There was the dredging up of a dodgy joke concerning George Michael, made in a speech at a Burns Night supper eight years ago, which even Offord admitted was “a bit homophobic”. Then Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar accused Offord of lying when the latter claimed Labour had tried to solicit Reform’s help in stopping the SNP.

Last week, Offord was goaded into revealing his considerable wealth in the Scottish leaders’ debate on STV, declaring that he owned “six houses, five cars, and six boats”. Yet his critics must have missed the part about his modest background. Offord shared a tenement flat with five siblings and attended state school before going to Edinburgh University. He then arrived in London, saddled with £2,000 of debt, which he turned into a fortune from banking and finance.

I can confirm the modesty of these origins. Offord was five years above me at Greenock Academy, the well-run “old-school” secondary that served the city’s West End and which later doubled up as the home of the BBC’s Waterloo Road. Offord came of age in an era in which Greenock was declining, and the shipyards were winding down. But it was Margaret Thatcher who offered hope to the enterprising and ambitious. Some deplored it and clung to the past but others, like Offord, embraced the new possibilities and made good.

This upbringing has surely informed his policies for Reform. Hidden in the media furor is a 10-year program for the revitalization of Scotland. Personally drafted by Offord, Reform UK’s Scotland manifesto focuses on growth but includes plans for an overhaul of Scottish bureaucracy, education, industry and healthcare. Anyone doubting its ambition should consider policies to water down the power of Holyrood, devolving more power to local councils and reducing the number of constituency MSPs from 73 to 57.

Those close to Offord suggest his original plan was to get into Holyrood and establish himself for a serious bid for the top job in 2031. In the intervening period, he would gain recognition and credibility in opposition to the SNP government’s shoddy administration. That may be how things turn out — though one wonders if Offord’s patience will endure, or whether what will be left of Scotland by 2031 will be salvageable.

Only the Scottish people can accelerate the timetable. Offord has clearly done well to build up Reform’s popularity in Scotland, but developing it into the party of government may be a step too far. Still, he offers a clear alternative to the status quo, and that may be all that Scottish voters need.

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Philip Patrick is a lecturer at a Tokyo university and a freelance journalist.

@Pbp19Philip

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