It’s unsurprising that Nigel Farage’s reported claim — that a pact between Reform UK and the Conservatives is “inevitable” — was allegedly made at a meeting with party donors. Whatever the sentiments of the infantry, it’s always those of the paymasters that tell in the end. Publicly, the Reform leader stated yesterday that his real intention is a “reverse takeover” of the Tories, while senior figures in his party briefed that Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick ought to defect to their side.

With Reform now flatlining in the polls — although it must be noted that it still holds first place — there is no longer the bullish confidence that Farage will be able to form a majority government after the next election. So the people being asked to reach into their pockets want to know: is there a plan B?

The barriers to such an arrangement are formidable on both sides. Farage reportedly told this same meeting that he was wary of making any deal with the Tories, and he’s right to feel that way. Last year, the Conservatives suffered the most shattering rout in their long history; the last thing Reform needs is to appear to voters as nothing more than the Tory Party 2.0.

This is especially the case because the two parties, although often discussed as though they were interchangeable on “the Right”, have different electorates and electoral maps. Of the 98 seats where a Reform candidate placed second at the 2024 election, no fewer than 89 are currently held by Labour MPs. Its fresh brand allows Farage’s party to be competitive in many places — not just so-called “left behind” areas but cities such as London and Liverpool — where the Tories have been on the retreat (or extinct) for a decade or more.

On the other hand, the Conservatives have been driven back to their traditional, more prosperous Southern heartlands and now have a tenuous grip even on those. While the Green threat is likely to recede as the sheen of Zack Polanski’s leadership election wears off, MPs will still be wary of a pact with Farage exposing them to a strong local challenge from the Liberal Democrats. These differences point to the biggest hurdle: what would a joint Conservative-Reform programme for government actually look like?

Hard as it might be for some to believe, the Tories still lead in the opinion polls when it comes to who voters trust to manage the economy — although Reform is now in second place, and that data was collected before the Budget. The Tories’ obvious strategy at the next election is to lean into that strength, but would Reform voters be prepared to sign up to a serious programme of spending cuts?

On the other side of the coin, Farage is riding a wave of popular fury about immigration. Given that many Tory MPs remain squeamish on the issue, and the previous government’s record was so terrible, would he be able to get Kemi Badenoch to sign up to an acceptably punchy reform package? Could she even sell it to her MPs?

Both leaders need to think this scenario through extremely carefully. It might seem counterintuitive, but a parliament where the Conservatives and Reform could form a government after the next election may end up being the worst possible result for the British Right.

If they are incapable of forming one, it will allow Labour — and a collection of other Left-wing parties — back in. If Reform and the Tories really do form one and it fails, both Right-wing parties will be discredited at once.

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Henry Hill is Deputy Editor of ConservativeHome.

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