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Who will bring down Michel Barnier? French politicians are playing a dangerous game

'There is no principled defence or critique of the Barnier government.' Ludovic Marin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

'There is no principled defence or critique of the Barnier government.' Ludovic Marin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images


November 29, 2024   4 mins

During a recent visit to a Michelin factory, on the outskirts of Paris, the minister for industrial affairs Marc Ferracci was heckled and shouted at. The factory is one of many to be shut down as part of a wave of industrial closures across France. Added to this are expected strikes by public sector workers and the railways. Right now, it is too early to say whether the republic will experience a protracted social crisis as it has in the past, but the situation is far from promising.

In spite of these severe economic woes, the French political class is consumed by strategising and tactical manoeuvres, all tied to the possible fallout from the collapse of the Barnier government. It looks increasingly likely that Barnier will push through his budget using the famous Article 49:3 of the Constitution, which allows legislation to be passed without a parliamentary vote. The Left has said it would respond by seeking to bring down the government. The far-Right, whose votes will be decisive, has said that as things stand they are minded to vote with the Left. In which case, the Barnier government will collapse some time between 15 and 21 December.

In the last few days, the possibility of an even earlier move to bring Barnier down has been suggested — perhaps as early as next week. French public opinion is divided on the matter, though it seems surprisingly favourable to the prospect of a collapse. A recent poll found that just over half of those surveyed supported dissolution, despite the turbulence of the legislative elections over the summer. This number falls a little when the prospect of a financial crisis is evoked, but even then a hefty 46% still support a move against Barnier.

When the Barnier government was first put together, at the end of the summer, after an extended period of feverish uncertainty, it seemed as if it might signal some kind of return for the country’s centre-right Républicains. They were given some of the most powerful roles — the minister of interior, for instance — whilst Barnier himself came from this wing of the political spectrum. The Left cried foul, as they considered themselves the winners of the legislative elections, and yet the centre-right was back in power.

However, it was always dangerous to rest the revival of a party and a political tradition on an edifice as fragile as the Barnier government. Less than six months later, we see that the fundamental dynamic of political fragmentation — where no political force is able to create a majority of any kind — is reasserting itself. And the Barnier government is a distillation of that fragmentation rather than a way of overcoming it.

This fragmentation has not come out of the blue. It was already evident in the early 2000s, but it was masked by the rallying effect that came from surprisingly good scores by the French far-Right. The fact that neither the Left nor the Right could command the same sort of vote share as in the past was hidden by the power of the cordon sanitaire: majorities were built on a fear of letting the far-Right into power.

This resistance to the far-Right has steadily fallen away, leaving the centre-right exposed and unable to secure its place in the presidential run-off. At the same time, the Left has split between the centre and the far-Left. Macronism, for a time, functioned as a broad centrist coalition, able to govern and thus seeming to reverse this trend of fragmentation. However, lacking any ideological consistency, this was only a temporary solution.

Today, with a shrunken Macronist party, the only thing keeping the Barnier government in place are the fears of his opponents about what exactly might happen should he be brought down. The far-Left, dominated by Jean Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise, is determined to censure the government: it has never accepted its legitimacy in the first place. Though Mélenchon clearly relishes the prospect of a chaotic end to Barnier’s tenure as prime minister, there are others on the Left who are more cautious about what the voters will make of this parliamentary coup de grâce.

“There is no principled defence or critique of the Barnier government today in France.”

The same consideration lies on the far-Right. Marine Le Pen is unquestionably the one holding the cards at the moment. The Left can only bring Barnier down if they also have the support of the far-Right. Le Pen has up until now judged the government on a pragmatic basis, keeping her powder dry. The Rassemblement National has not managed to get over its own sense of betrayal in the legislative elections, when enough of the other parties united against it to keep it out of power. Moreover, it has not won any obvious battles in the debates on amendments to the budget. This week, Marine Le Pen declared that as things stand with the budget, she would also support a dissolution of the government. Even so, she is cautious about triggering an unnecessary crisis. She is also wary of being seen to play political games typical of the Parisian elite, games that appear unintelligible to her voting base.

There is no principled defence or critique of the Barnier government today in France. Current discussions and decisions are overwhelmingly tactical. Those eying up the presidency in 2027 — such as former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, and former leader of Les Républicains Laurent Wauquiez — are asking themselves whether a dissolved government will be good or bad for their chances. Both are watching events closely.

But despite this uncertainty, a full-blown crisis of the eurozone still seems far-fetched, given the broadly robust nature of the French economy. A sense of governability at the national level, however, is a key criterion for eurozone stability. And in France, the budget and the country’s future economic trajectory have become subordinated to political calculation. The government currently survives: but its existence is an expression of the indecision of others. And even though France has a government today, it remains no more governable than in the dramatic weeks after the dissolution of the legislature.


Christopher Bickerton is a Professor in Modern European Politics at the University of Cambridge.

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Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
7 days ago

To the editor of Unherd: the constant use of the term ‘far right’ by your contributors needs to stop. The people referred to this way are not ‘far right’ at all. What separates them from their opposition is solely their belief that governments should act above all in the national interest and not on behalf of a supranational elite. Repeatedly describing them in this way is both dishonest and misleading.

Georgivs Novicianvs
Georgivs Novicianvs
7 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

I suggest we call the Rassemblement National ‘right’ or ‘just right’ and everyone else ‘kinda right’.

Ted Ditchburn
Ted Ditchburn
5 days ago

Or the opposite to the Far Right are the Far Wrong?

Raphus cuculatus
Raphus cuculatus
7 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

There used to be the term ‘right (or left) wing’, which perfectly described political views clearly to one side or other of the political spectrum. Why can’t this be used as a less contentious label?

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
7 days ago

The labels no longer mean anything. ‘Left’ used to mean solidarity with the working class, now it just means statist.

Charles Hedges
Charles Hedges
2 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

The Labour Party was founded by a Christian , Keir Hardie who wanted to improve the quaity of life of the un and semi skilled; he was against class war. Lenin believed in a small group of revolutionaries taking power; he had contempt for the lumpen proletariat.
Hardie was a democrat, Lenin a dictator who believed any action, be it murder, rape, mutilation was justified if it furthered the cause.
In France the revolutionaries adopted the belief in the Divine Rigtht of the King and the concept of Droit Administratif used ruthlessly by Cadinal Richlieu.Those running the EEC/EU have no experience of English Common Law and believe in the Divine Right of Politicians and Bureaucrats and the ruthless use of the Le Droit Administratif.
The modern day civil service have the same attitude as the higher echelons( abbots, bishops and above ) of the Romn Catholic Church pre- Reformation.

Nick Faulks
Nick Faulks
7 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

Agreed. This nonsense screams out of the page every time and makes it difficult to take seriously anything else in the article.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
6 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

Why do we have to keep using these outdated terms of left and right at all?

charlie martell
charlie martell
4 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

All part of the language control and manipulation used by the left for many decades.

Old Stalin knew what he was doing when he called Trotsky “Right wing”, before he had him done away with. All good communists together.

Katharine Eyre
Katharine Eyre
7 days ago

I do feel a bit sorry for Barnier. Macron must have thought he was just the ticket to be dealing with a fractious coalition due to his skills at keeping people with different interests united which we saw during Brexit (you have to admit that, even if you’re still moody about it. Which personally I’m not).
If he’d have just stayed in retirement, then that would have been the crowning glory of his career. Now he’s added this car crash to the resumé. Quit while you’re ahead and all that.

Paul K
Paul K
7 days ago

Far-Right, Far-Left, left, right, centre-right, centrist.
What is going on with the capitalisation here? Is there a code I’m not in on And when is someone going to actually define these terms for me?!

Emmanuel MARTIN
Emmanuel MARTIN
7 days ago

Seen from France, our situation is an inextricable mess.
There are basically 3 camps in France (center, farleft, farright) and they have each one third of the vote.
So at some point, we’ll get an IMF administrator, maybe in a few years.

Lancashire Lad
Lancashire Lad
7 days ago

Sounds like you need a parliamentary guillotine.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
7 days ago

Unfortunately all 3 camps are made up of fervent believers in the existence of the Magic Money Tree.

Santiago Excilio
Santiago Excilio
7 days ago

“a full-blown crisis of the eurozone still seems far-fetched, given the broadly robust nature of the French economy.”

I would disagree with this. Since the start of September, the French economy has undergone a marked economic downturn. Investment is slowing down, the unemployment curve is reversing, redundancy plans and bankruptcies are multiplying, the country’s economic attractiveness is deteriorating, and the social climate is tense. They cannot seem to reign in spending, the budget deficit is running at 6% plus (in complete contravention to the EU’s 3% rule) and their largest trading partner, Germany, is in recession. There is nothing very robust in this picture.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
7 days ago

Once Trump gets going the same fate awaits all of us. His cheap oil, low-regulation, AI turbo-charged economy is going to suck every last penny of capital out of the sclerotic EU. If Starmer doesn’t ditch the Net Zero nonsense (and David Lammy) pretty promptly our future looks even worse.

Santiago Excilio
Santiago Excilio
4 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

I 100% agree with you, which is why on the day Trump won the election I switched the weighting across all my portfolios to overweight US.

Warren Trees
Warren Trees
4 days ago

Wise move.

Jim Haggerty
Jim Haggerty
7 days ago

France and Germany in political upheaval can not be a good omen for the EU. Especially with Trump back in the USA. How will they pay for increased defense spending, high social welfare costs, and the “green net zero transition?” Very tough choices ahead.

Norfolk Sceptic
Norfolk Sceptic
7 days ago
Reply to  Jim Haggerty

You are repeating yourself: the high social welfare costs are for the injured Windmills. 🙂