17 useful concepts to survive the election Listen to the losers, not the winners

1. False Consensus Effect

“Everyone driving slower than you is an idiot and everyone driving faster than you is a maniac.” — George Carlin. Our model of the world assumes people are like us. We don’t just do whatever we consider normal, we also consider normal whatever we do.

2. Fredkin’s Paradox

The more similar two choices seem, the less the decision should matter — yet the harder it is to choose between them. As a result, we often spend the most time on the decisions that matter least. To avoid being paralysed by meaningless choices, use decision-making heuristics.

3. Package-Deal Ethics

“If I can predict all of your beliefs from one of your beliefs, you’re not a serious thinker.” — Chris Williamson. Being pro-choice and being pro-gun control don’t necessarily follow from each other, yet those who believe one usually also believe the other. This is because most people don’t choose beliefs individually, but subscribe to “packages” of beliefs offered by a tribe.

4. Ovsiankina Effect (aka Hemingway Effect)

We have an intrinsic need to finish what we’ve started. Exploit this by taking your breaks mid-task; the incompleteness will gnaw at you, increasing your motivation to return to work. (When writing, I end each day mid-sentence because it

5. Champion Bias

We assume winners have the best advice, but those who win rarely examine why they won, while those who lose often regretfully dwell on their mistakes. So you’ll often obtain the best advice on winning not from winners but from losers.

6. Premortem

Instead of waiting for something to go wrong and then conducting a post-mortem, conduct a “pre-mortem” by imagining it went wrong — and then using the power of hindsight to deduce the likeliest reason it went wrong.

Imagine you get drenched during a big campaign speech. What could have been the most likely reason? Is there anything you can do today to prevent that?

7. Youngest-Kid-in-Class Syndrome

A study of 300,000 children found that the youngest kids in class were more likely to be diagnosed with ADHD. This suggests that immaturity is sometimes being mistaken for disorders.

8. Woozle Effect

When a source makes an unproven claim and it’s then cited as proof by another, which is cited by another, and so on, until the chain of citations looks like evidence. This is common because, while many writers check their sources, few check their sources’ sources.

A recent example: evidence that puberty blockers are safe and effective was overestimated because institutions were circularly citing each other.

9. Post-journalism

The press lost its monopoly on news when the internet democratised info. To save its business model, it pivoted from journalism into tribalism. The new role of the press is not to inform its readers but to confirm what they already believe.

10. Roseto Effect

Many long-term studies, including the 50-year Roseto study and the 85-year Harvard Study of Adult Development, found that having close-knit relationships is as important for longevity as diet, sleep and exercise, yet it’s often neglected by fitness gurus. If you want to live, love.

11. Hitchens’s Razor

“What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.” ― Christopher Hitchens. If you make a claim, it’s up to you to prove it, not to me to disprove it.

12. The Liking Gap

Multiple studies have found that people consistently underestimate how much a conversation partner likes them and enjoys their company. So don’t be shy, you’re probably cooler than you think.

13. Boomerang Effect

Deny someone something, and they’ll want it even more, out of defiance. If you want your child to eat broccoli, tell them they’re not big enough to eat broccoli. This also helps to explain why censorship often backfires (the Streisand Effect).

14. Anchored-to-your-own-history bias

“Your personal experiences make up maybe 0.00000001% of what’s happened in the world but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.” — Morgan Housel. Boomers and Generation X had wildly different experiences of how the economy works, and this gave them different dispositions, world views, and political preferences.

15. Common Knowledge Effect

Groups are meant to be better decision-makers than individuals, because they combine many perspectives. But in practice, a group doesn’t base its decisions on the info specific to each member, but only on the info common to them all. This casts doubt on the idea that “two heads are better than one”, and helps explain why, despite popular wisdom, diversity generally does not make teams better.

16. Gibson’s Law

“For every PhD there is an equal and opposite PhD.” Both sides in a court case or policy debate will have support from experts, no matter how crazy the position, because education doesn’t make someone right, it often just makes them more skilled at being wrong.

17. Cached Thoughts

Most of your beliefs were formed earlier in your life, when you were more naive. You continue to believe them only because you’ve never reconsidered them. When you’re about to offer an opinion, consider when you formed it, and ask: is it really your belief, or that of your younger self?

And one final thing: as usual, don’t mistake these rules of thumb for laws of nature, as that would be a fallacy called Secundum Quid.

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Gurwinder Bhogal is a freelance writer. His work can be found at gurwinder.substack.com

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