Over the past two years, as the entire world became paralysed by a deadly new pandemic, an altogether different ‘epidemic’ was silently ripping through one of the West’s most marginalised communities. Last year, we’re told, was the ‘deadliest’ year for transgender people since records began. With the situation so grave, is it any surprise that last November, on the Transgender Day of Remembrance, a long list of public and private organisations in the UK lined up to pay homage to trans murder victims?
As the mother of a son who identifies as part of the transgender community,1 the prospect of there being an epidemic of trans murders holds an added weight: is my son’s life in danger? Should I be beside myself with worry when he travels to work, let alone when goes out to a gig at a weekend? Suffice it to say that this is not an issue that I can afford to take lightly.
Facts always matter — but they take on a particular importance when they’re being used to claim that your child could be murdered. So I decided to delve into the research used to inform these claims. For me, it was personal.
The Government doesn’t publish data on the number of transgender people in the UK, though in 2018 it “tentatively” estimated that the figure stood between “approximately 200,000-500,000”. What proportion of that number must have been killed to warrant today’s warnings of trans murder epidemic? 10? 100? 1,000?
To find out, I analysed data collected by the trans-led organisation Transgender Europe, which has received more than a million dollars from the Arcus Foundation, who are based in the US and take a keen interest in transgender issues. As well as donating almost $150,000 to Stonewall, in 2015 the Arcus Foundation handed $312,000 to Transgender Europe specifically to supply reliable global data on transgender murders. The website it created provides an interactive map and links to documents naming the transgender victims.
Looking at Transgender Europe’s list of cases, it became clear — to my relief — that the total murders reported for the United Kingdom since 2008 amounted to 11. This translates as a murder rate of around 0.165%.
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Subscribegreat piece, thanks. can you do one that drills down on the claims around high trans suicide rate too – leading to the claim that it’s ‘better to have a (transitioned) son/daughter than a dead (cis) daughter/ son’ that is held over parents… when you look at the studies these claims come from, the numbers are equally tiny and suspect
Given that the article is all about ‘drilling down’ into the headline figures, and trying to add a little bit of ‘nuance’ to an otherwise ‘politicised’ headline grabbing campaign. I wonder, given that it appears a good proportion of those murdered were ‘sex workers, how many, if any, were murdered because they were ‘found out’, pretending to be something they were not ? I can’t claim any insights, or deep understanding, of prostitution and, in particular, trans-prostitution, or indeed the people who avail themselves of their services, but it seems to me that it is not beyond belief that a ‘punter’ who may feel that they have deceived into engaging in something that they might otherwise consider with disgust might feel so enraged that they ‘attack’ the object of that disgust ? Even that question is only skimming the surface of potential motives, however the fact that there appears to be a disproportionate connection between the murder, or violence, towards some trans people engaging in ‘sex work’ probably cannot be emphasised enough. Out of curiosity, it would also be interesting to know how violence against trans-prostitutes compares to violence against straight, or gay, prostitutes, rather than simply compared to violence against women in general ?
This is a good article in that it drills down into the facts to reveal that trans people are really not subjected to a disproportionate level of murder just for being trans. I agree that comparisons and numbers might usefully be refined but this seems to be the work of one woman rather than a department involved with statistics professionally.
The truth is that the alleged high murder rate is a political statement of victimhood by activists. The fact that for example the death at work rate in the US is over ten times higher for men than women is not highlighted as a man’s issue as it would be if the figures were reversed is because it doesn’t fit the popular political narrative that women are oppressed. Just as drilling down into the number of police shootings of blacks in the US reveals that blacks are slightly more likely to be killed than whites but that that probably relates more to the level of crime perpetrated by blacks, but that doesn’t suit the political victim narrative.
And the number of unborn children aborted by women over the same period was just under two million.
For the perspective, in case anyone thinks men are prolific killers.
Love the downvotes.
About a quarter of women has an abortion in their lifetime. When a man attacks a woman, the woman can sometimes run, hide, or fight back. When a woman attacks her unborn child, none of that is possible so there’s only one outcome, 194,000 times a year in the UK, and it’s 100% a woman’s decision; no child has ever been aborted because a man insisted that it be. Isn’t it annoying when this comes up in the context of what an awful time women have?
An abortion in its early stages is removing a ball of cells that could have become a child. It’s not killing a child. Many pregnancies at that stage self terminate without the woman even knowing she was pregnant. Nature designed it that way.
Then according to your “clump of cells” logic many women who seek abortion must not even realize they’re pregnant. Got it.
Are you actually deranged? Seek help.
I had 7 spontaneous abortions… What does that make nature? Men usually die towards the end if their lives. Other men kill them, no loss.
In fact, there are only 2 definite in life : you are born, you die. Men being killed by other men according to your argument, is not murder either. Just nature…
Some folks are just not very bright…
You really don’t like women, do you? Bad mother? Wife divorce you? I suppose being on here and giving your opinion actually protects women in the real world from men like you…
the womb the most dangerous place to be in Western society…
As a man I repudiate your misogynistic nonsense. God/nature is the biggest abortioner of all and equating abortion with the murder of women (which is overwhelmingly an act of male violence) is grossly offensive to me as a man, let alone what it must feel to the women reading your crazy ‘men’s rights based’ bs
I do not think this article is correct as far as the comparative numbers are concerned. As I understand the data there were seven murders of transgender people between 2008 and 2017 and none in the last three years. 7 in 12 years equates to 0.58 murders per year over that period. Even at the lower end of the quoted estimate of how many trans people there are in the UK that is a murder rate of 1 in 340,000. At the higher end of the range (500,000) the rate drops to 1 in 860,000. I believe that Stonewall thinks that there may be as many as 600,000 trans people in the UK (though I accept that I might be wrong on that score as I have not checked recently) which would reduce the rate further down to 1 in 1 million. Compare these to the ONS figure in the article for the population as a whole (11.7 per million in 2021) and the conclusion that the murder rate of trans people is ‘still significantly higher’ than average is revealed as nonsense. To look at the figures another way, to equal that rate of 11.7 murders per million there would have to be 2.3 murders per year of trans people (if the trans population is 200,000) rising to 5.85 trans murders per year if the population is 500,000. Thus, the risk of murder for trans individuals is significantly lower than average, however one looks at the numbers.
One implication of this piece is that the trans cases are so few as to make meaningful comparisons impossible (in statistical terms)
There are very few trans women who would fool anyone even with all their clothes on. Men who procure them may have a lot of repressed emotions, but I doubt they are being fooled.
It may also be informative to know how many murdered trans were surgically altered trans.
It’s never (or very rarely) about “deception”; it’s about self-loathing. Lots of “straight” men get excited by the idea of “chicks with dic*s”. Some will relieve that itch by watching p*rnography. Some will do it in the real world. Many of them feel disgusted with themselves after the event. And a tiny number will feel so disgusted that they kill.
Funny how the Arcus Foundation is basically funded from a medical supply company. I know it is theoretically possible for grants from big pharma to be benign but do bear in mind that Sockpuppet charities generating fake facts are pretty much standard marketing practice. Watch Dopesick for a 101 lesson in this.
Great article, and I’m glad you have done the research, but really – colour me shocked to discover trans people aren’t being murdered willy-nilly in Britains by random transphobes.
The figures in this article are all over the place and the analysis is deeply flawed.
First of all, take the claimed trans murder rate of 0.165%. Let’s assume the lower estimate of the number of trans people, 200,000. 0.165% of 200,000 is 330 people – and that would be for a single year. Over a period of 12 years, to achieve a rate of 0.165% of a 200,000 population there would have been around 4000 murders of trans people in the UK over the period. And that is assuming only the lower figure for the population – if it was the upper estimate of 500,000 then the number of murders to achieve 0.165% would need to be around 10,000 over the period!
In fact 11 murders over 12 years in a population of 200,000 amounts to a rate of around 0.00046%. This would compare with a 2020 rate for the whole population of 0.0012% – not far short of three times higher. So murders of trans people in the UK would appear to occur at a rate of roughly 5 per million per annum, compared to 11 per million for the population at large and 6 per million for women. In other words, far from having a raw murder rate higher than the general population, as the author claims, trans people are LESS likely to be murdered than the average citizen – a fact that is disguised by skittering between inaccurate percentages and genuine rates per million.
Admittedly this makes the case even stronger but if you’re going to claim to have ‘analysed the data’ it doesn’t inspire confidence if you’re out by a factor of nearly 300.
But on the other side the author makes the classic mistake of analysing the data according to different standards. She goes to enormous trouble to explain away the majority of the killings as not really being down to the person being trans – drugs, pimps, prostitution are all called in aid. Having done that she glibly provides the “context” that 1800 women were murdered by men over the same period. But unlike the analysis of the trans figures she makes no attempt to discern how many were murdered because they were women – no list of deaths attributable to drugs, prostitution etc. Apparently only the deaths of trans people need to be explained away.
Such sloppy work appearing under the guise of ‘analysing the data’ does nothing for the reputation of Unherd as a credible source of information. As the author points out: “Facts always matter”.
Note: a far more coherent analysis can be found at FactCheck: how many trans people are murdered in the UK? – Channel 4 News
Thanks for this very helpful
Thanks for pointing this out. I noticed the same absurdities in the numbers and should have responded. You did a much better job than I would have done. A shame, because the writer weakened her own case by giving us sloppy calculations.
It would be so helpful in discussing trans issues if everyone could agree on a definition. When the article says there are perhaps 500,000 trans people in the UK does it mean people who do not conform or identify with their birth gender, people who take hormones that alter their secondary sex characteristics but may/may not have a full sex change, or people who have had gender reassignment surgery? Or all of the above?
If you open the linked doc it says (and I agree it is meaningless, but at least it is more than putting on a dress):
“What is trans?
Trans is a general term for people whose gender is different from the gender assigned to them at birth. For
example, a trans man is someone that transitioned from woman to man. Trans people do not feel comfortable living
as the gender that they were born with. They take serious, life-changing steps to change their gender permanently.”
Thanks – still none the wiser though. To me it has always meant ‘someone who has had a sex change’ as opposed to a transvestite or other gender non conformist behaviour
Quite. For decades that was the definition, the term used was ‘transsexual’ and the numbers were tiny and mostly male to female adults. Now we have ‘gender’ ideology with the idea that people should ‘identify’ with the social stereotypes that they wish to follow, and call themselves by the sex that mostly aligns with those stereotypes. Anyone who does not align with rigid sex-role stereotypes is considered to be ‘non-binary’. In reality, that is probably most of the population.
This is a very dangerous development, particularly when children are being told in school that they can choose their sex depending on which toys they like to play with, and aggressive men in dresses are demanding access to female facilities.
Very few people undergo ‘sex-change’ surgery. The vast majority of so-called transwomen are male-bodied and will always be so.
Gender assigned at birth is one of those nonsense phrases we are all supposed to embrace for no logical reason. My previous doctor had it on my record. I’m male, was born male and had it assigned to me when sperm met egg.
“Trans people do not feel comfortable living as the gender that they were born with. They take serious, life-changing steps to change their gender permanently.”
….
Is that claim about the majority of trans people a fact?
Establishing facts around trans is important for the public to understand properly the scale of the issues and how they weigh against the issues created against other sections of our society, such as women and children.
By life-changing it means at a minimum hormones and surgery.
Other commentators have said the proportion of transwomen that actually take the maximal transition measures (surgery, hormones) is roughly 10% of all the trans who are men (by sex). And that the 90% (contradicting that claim) that don’t remain heterosexual. i.e. they are men, identifying as transwomen, who are sexually interested in women.
This is why women are, on the whole, very much against transwomen being able to enter women-only and girl-only spaces. They do not want men and boys (by sex) in them. The majority of men don’t want it either. The masses, the English public don’t either. To inform the law markers and to prove that one way or another, let’s have a public referendum on it.
Except gender isn’t ‘assigned at birth’. Sex is observed at birth and often before birth.
All of the above are usually included, as are people who announce that they’re ‘non-binary’ or ‘gender-fluid’ or similar but continue as they are, unchanged.
And on what basis is 200k to 500k “estimated.” Its sounds like one of those figures plucked out of the air, which includes all sorts of lifestyle choices falling well short of even the woolly definition provided.
I wonder where a government department would go to get such estimates- Stonewall maybe?
Half a million people is an issue deserving of legislative time and effort, the real number almost certainly not.
Agree, my own guess would be in the low hundreds.
Number of Transits seems seems high. Thats 1 out of 136 to 1 of 340 in UK play dress up to self mutilate.
Based on the wail I would have assumed they were suffering from genocide. Glad that’s not the case.
Wonder what rates of suicide, crime and psychological issues might be and comparison to a similar demographic.
Kathleen Stock has done some excellent research on this subject and come to the same conclusions. Violence is a great story for trans ‘activists’ but not supported by the data.
Most murders are committed either by people who know the victim or in circumstances where the victims are involved in crime. Transexual prostitution has to be very nearly the most marginal lifestyle there is. I didn’t need a study to tell me that random people aren’t being killed in large numbers because of their gender identity.,
With complete understanding that everything is a crisis if the situation applies to you, I think that society is the true victim here. It’s very difficult to sit back and watch a deep psychological issue within a tiny fraction of the population rise to this level of urgency, whilst we have true epidemics taking place with opioid overdoses and homelessness.
sorry about your son, it’s painful when fashionable ideologies claim kids for their sacrifice . Indeed, nothing new under the sun but pain is still pain
No surprises here for me, but my biggest takeaway is the comment about an annual Remembrance Day for murdered women.
I’m usually not a fan of such virtue signalling but I think in this case it would serve a good purpose in raising awareness of how much violence is visited upon women by men. I don’t think most people realise the enormous scale of it.
How about a remembrance day for aborted children? That would take in a much, much wider demographic. 194,000 children are aborted by women in the UK every year, which means roughly one woman in 58 who is of childbearing age has an abortion every year.
Bravery and thank you!!
Could someone, next, research the claims about trans-women being made suicidal by opposition to their access to women-only spaces, such as refuges and changing rooms.
Chelsea Clinton tweeted that transgender people have a higher rate of murder than men or women, especially black transgender people, citing a DC human rights organization. Andy Ngo looked at the organization’s data, and found that
A. transgender people have a lower murder victim rate than women, and women than men, and
B. most of the black transsexuals killed were murdered by black men.
He tweeted his findings, and Twitter deleted it.
Yes, facts can’t get in the way of the agenda.
An excellent, and moving, piece. All the more so as I’m currently reading Carol Ann Lee’s “Somebody’s Mother, Somebody’s Daughter”: Ms Lee records the lives and stories of the Yorkshire Rippers victims.
Great piece, thank you TS for unpicking the stats.
I’d likeinsight as to why transgenders are so drawn to sex work compared to the general population.
Are they,”drawn” to it, or is the employment available? Answering that would be a whole new article.
It’s about time there were reliable statistics published on gov.uk about trans people, so that there is a common base for discussion and agreement.
I get the sense that trans numbers are inflated, that claims by activists are exaggerated, based on my experience and perception, but that could be wrong. It would be helpful to read about facts, not unsupported claims.
What ‘punter’ is really going to allow himself to be filmed with a transgender prostitute ? Scripted with an actor most probably .At any rate he sounds polite , not murderous .
The killings of transgender prostitutes is not to do with transphobia so much as rage when their clients suddenly realise they have been conned into having sex with what they regard as a bloke .
Thanks!
Sadly, nothing in this article surprises me.
Sadly, nothing in this article surprises me.
Fair enough, but would the author use the same rationalisation in relation to women who had been murdered? Would they be kind of discounted if they were prostitutes, for example?
And how many of the women killed each year are genuinely killed for “simply being women” as opposed to it being spun that way by ideologues and activists?
Just out of curiosity, is being killed, without premeditation, a problem for the Trans community in so far as it then all gets lumped in as murder ?
A new offence perhaps “Trans-slaughter “ , the prejudicial killing of a Trans person ?
People are usually murdered because of their relationship and lifestyle choices. Drugs, alcohol, poverty and mental illness are probably the main factors. The fact that some of those people consider themselves to be ‘trans’ is largely irrelevant and simply a manifestation of their mental illness.
I didn’t realise that poverty and mental illness were “lifestyle choices”. What strange choices some people make 🙂
So a political stunt – rather like trans day of remembrance.
google hack
Headlining “The Truth About” generally leads to articles that are not true or do not contain truth. This was bourn out to me in reading this article