When was the last time you saw a genuinely new vision of the future — one that didn’t simply rehash notions that have been around since long before you were born? They are remarkably hard to find these days. Take a close look at the props that clutter up images of the future in popular culture, and you’ll find that most of them are antiques.
Flying cars are a great example. They’re anything but new; US aviation pioneer Glenn Curtiss built and tested the first flying car in 1917. There have been many others since then, and some of them worked, after a fashion. The problem is that the engineering compromises needed to make a vehicle that’s both roadworthy and airworthy guarantee that your flying car will have lousy performance in either role. It will also cost so much that for the same price, you could buy a good car, a good plane, and put a down payment on a midsized yacht. That’s why we don’t have flying cars. They’ve been tried, they’ve failed, and only the fact that people won’t let go of the fantasy keeps engineers perpetually pushing on a door marked “Pull”.
Take any other iconic technogimmick that popular culture assigns to the future and you’ll find that it was a familiar notion a century ago. Fusion power? Jules Verne wrote about that in 1869. Replacement of human labour by robots? Introduced in 1921 by Karel Capek, the writer who invented the word “robot”. 24/7 internet connectivity for all? It’s a major plot point in E.M. Forster’s 1909 tale The Machine Stops. Space travel? Already done to death before the pulp magazines of the Twenties got to it. All of them, interestingly enough, turned out to have the same problem that doomed the flying car: sure, they’re possible — well, except for fusion power; the jury’s still out on whether that can be done on a scale smaller than a star — but the limited benefits don’t begin to cover the sky-high costs.
Yet the same old futures, grey with decades of dust, remain stuck in place in the popular imagination. Take Star Trek, the show that still defines the future for an embarrassingly large number of people. It premiered in 1966. In that year cars still had tailfins, surfer movies starring Annette Funicello and Frankie Avalon were all the rage, books on space travel had chapters beginning “When man lands on the Moon,” and slide rules were the standard calculating device because computers were fragile contraptions the size of warehouses. That was the year when Ronald Reagan began his political career. Star Trek isn’t our future. It’s the embalmed corpse of a future that fell over dead a long time ago.
There’s an ugly political subtext behind this act of mummification. The rebels of the 1960s and 1970s framed their challenges to the status quo in visionary terms, portraying futures dramatically different from the present. Theodore Roszak’s Where the Wasteland Ends (1972) and Ernest Callenbach’s Ecotopia (1978) were among the most widely read of the literature that resulted. Those challenges caused stark panic among the comfortable classes. When the backlash hit in the 1980s, the corporate establishment set out to erase the idea that the future could differ from the present in any way that mattered.
Those who lived through those years will recall how environmental action groups were bought out and neutered, the scruffy radicals who founded them abruptly replaced by slick corporate enablers. The same thing happened to every other movement that threatened the existing order of things: that’s when feminism gave up on changing society, for example, and settled instead for giving middle-class women prestige jobs within the system. Stuffing the visionary futures of the previous decades down the nearest available memory hole was part of the same process.
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SubscribeMaybe the answer is to stop imagining utopian futures altogether, thank you very much. How about focus on loving your nearest and dearest, hold steady and do what has to be done as best you can.
Indeed, rather than reflecting a diminution of scope, moving from global, societal transformation, to simply tending to one’s own garden, is the greatest positive change possible. (I say this as someone who finally acquired a family in 2021, and hence a garden to tend!)
My dream for the future is for the working classes to be paid enough to be able to afford a modest family home with a garden, rather than being stuck renting and handing their hard earned wages over to landlords much richer than themselves
Billy, I thought you were a plumber. Plumbers make good money really. “The average Plumber salary in the United States is $59,250 as of November 29, 2021, but the range typically falls between $51,530 and $67,780.”
An independent with a small crew can make a lot more than that. I do plumbing, electrician, and Carpentry professionally, and I make good money. As far as owning a house, I own a number of them – ones I built with my own hands, usually I build a house every second to third year, ground up, with one helper – every last bit of it. As a tradesman you could do this. If you can do one trade professionally – you can soon learn any other one as you have the skill/mindset of a tradesman.
I am breaking ground on my next one, the surveyor coming this week, the land clearing permit in hand, by next month I hope to be getting the pilings driven (it is a quasi waterfront 2 floor cottage). I can build a turn key house, nice one, ready to move in with all appliances, high off the ground, for $110 a sq ft. $1100 sq m. That is doing it myself. (I even do the plans). (this was what it cost me for my last one, in 2020 – 2021 with the high prices). Land here is cheap. I know British, Auz, Nz, Ca, all pay a lot more, but I am in a nice, smallish, town in USA. Big city is 50 miles off)
It usually takes me a year to build as I do not work at it full time, about 28 hours a week. The thing of being a professional tradesman is you can work as much as you wish – I could work 24-7 if I was able and wanted. You also can build your own house – I have built many over the last couple decades.
Tradesmen can make good money if they are entrepreneurial and keep getting skills.
I do not understand why more people do not build their own house. Also – it is a very good thing to become instead of university. Good money, and you can be your own boss, and if you can stand the work and stress, own a successful business. Like I have done – you can get your intellectual education on the side.
I’m guessing the regulations in the States are much more lax than in the UK or NZ then, you simply couldn’t sign off plumbing, electrical or structural work unless you have your qualifications. You’d also need much more capital to get started with land a build costs far above anything you’ve quoted.
However I wasn’t referring to myself in my comment, I’ve enough for what I need more through luck than judgement. Many others aren’t as fortunate though despite working much harder
I had many years in trades, did a lot of electrical industrial, and did some plumbing, and did mostly carpentry – so could show the time in work, and here then just had to pass the licensing tests. I used companies like this for my electrical and plumbing licenses – so I can pull permits and sign off on jobs. It is a real miserable chore studying, but then the tests are not hard – they really just screen out the ones who do not bother with it all. https://www.athomeprep.com/ look in there to see what a class to pass the State licenses are like. I think the electrical, books and class was $500, the test is $220, the license is $100. Under $1000 total. Plumbing similar.Then I have to have builder’s liability insurance to get a license – mine is $2,000,000 coverage and is $900 p/a. In my state you do not have to have college or apprenticeship to get licensed, just time in the trade and list jobs you did, and can document. (I have 5 years industrial electrical, a couple years plumbing, many years building can document off reference letters and tax returns.)
To get my general contractor’s license was $800 for the books, $500 for the online class, $100 for the license, $250 for the test, and the same insurance covers all three. I studied it for about a month at half time for the contractor license.
Workers Comp insurance on any employees is the biggie, it runs about $.17 per dollar you pay – so really adds to the cost of labour, then you have to pay their Social security of $.07%, and unemployment insurance. I keep away from actual employees as much as possible. I use an old guy as my employee who has his own insurance.
The land is cheap here. I just have money to use as cash, and buy the materials and pay work, as I go. I had to borrow my first couple houses I built, but selling them gave my capital. Now I no longer sell the ones I build as I have enough to do a couple more. And have kept several over the years.
This type of entrepreneurial attitude and career is where the future lies.
My dad was an electrician and, as you said, he was also pretty good at the other trades. But it was hard work and he’d accumulated some injuries by the time he turned sixty and went part time soon after. He always wanted me to get an office job because he said manual labor was just too hard past fifty.
So I went to college, collected degrees, managed to stay employed but the career paths for graduates outside IT and certain types of stem keep narrowing. It’s the tradespeople who’re in demand. We’ve come full circle. Don’t know what my dad would make of all that.
I wouldn’t want my kids to follow me into the trades, it’s a mugs game quite frankly.
You spend your days trying to work to ridiculous deadlines on razor thin profit margins for people who know nothing about the trade, destroying your body in an industry that’s horribly boom and bust and earning no more over the course of your working life than lads shuffling papers in an office.
Look at the old boys towards the end of their working lives and you’ll often see broken men with no extra money to show for their troubles
Billy – the biggest crime against the young is ‘Student Loans’. The young think they have to do university – in USA loans are guaranteed – and huge. Kids finish university in debt like half a house mortgage – And that is insane. Most university degrees are not so well paying, so they are not able to get married and have a family and buy a house with this debt. I think it is a sin to burden the young, just beginning life, with such debt.
Here in USA local ‘Community Collages’ are free or dirt cheap for locals, and give 2 year programs in trades, or university prep, or adult education – they are a better deal for the average young person. That is how I ended up doing my high school as an adult – then the first of higher maths and science to begin university – in 4 different colleges – all virtually free.
Labouring, and real manual graft, sure. But trades are not all about that. To be a sparky or a plumber is physical but it also takes mental acuity, and doesn’t involve humping tonnes of hardcore. My brother is a sparky and he’s not broken, in fact he’s fit as a fiddle because he is active and does things properly.
In that case he’s one of the lucky ones. Most sparkies I know have problems with their knees as they get older caused by hours kneeling on joists in the loft pulling cables
Hey Guys, get back on track! This is about the future. Listen to the druid guy and this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg5Ovdu6bOE
I have many injuries, in fact Billy once said I did trades work all wrong to have been hurt so much – But working rough construction sites, and not having budgets to scaffold and use man-lifts and so on, and needing to just get it done, you get hurt.
The plus side is us old timers are tough. We can work there with the young guys – not as long a day, but otherwise as well, but with more skills.
Bryant, I am the first in my family, in all the branches, not to have university degrees. I made such a mess of school as I was wildly rebellious so did not finish, and left basically uneducated and just hit the road for decades – I did construction sometimes, but mostly other kinds of work – often weird stuff – and did my high school as an adult in my 20s here and there in USA at community colleges, and even nailed a couple years of university – but could not hack the working and full time university at the same time and went back on the road, then school, then on the road, till I gave up and stayed on the road. (my parents had gone broke when I left home so never could help me financially – I could have gone back to London and live there and University – but was over UK life.)
If I had not dropped out of school I would have done university and been a professional – and that would have suited me best – but I F-ed school up too much – so just ended up working with my hands my life. I dislike construction very much – but it is a real way to make a living.
I could have become a millionaire – but it was too much work. Building, growing, building…. I made a good load in 5 years of 80 hour weeks doing 2 full time jobs (one for a company, one as my own business) – and was poised to really get it in gear, but I was spent. I was mid 40s and just could not keep it, I was used up mentally, so went back on the road, and later just went back to part time, building houses by myself, and make a living at about 20 hours a week.
I really screwed up my life by not behaving in school – but I just could not. I just have a craziness with authority, I just could not behave. My life would have been so easy, and I became so well off, if only I had not been a rebel from when I hit puberty.
But then I have seen a very great deal of the world – and a large amount of the really unusual places, people, situations – and so I justify my dropping out as I would not have seen anything like I have if I had done the right thing. But it was a waste
And it is now 2022, and I hope to do well this year. I say I have three houses left in me. I am beginning one now, clearing the land… Then I have been buying land and have some lovely spots for the other two, and then I think my work life will be over. I do not have to work – but I do not seem to care for travel now, so think not building is just wasting my skills and time – so hate building, but it is better than just being a wastrel. And although I do not like construction at all – I guess I like being constructive – and I am macho – and so hand building houses gives me some pride, as not many people can do it.
happy 2022
Like I told you last time, working dangerously when there’s no need to and injuring yourself and your workers isn’t macho, it’s idiotic.
If you’ve priced a job so that there’s no money for basics such as a scaffold then you’re a cowboy, and you’ve undercut legitimate businesses to get the work. If you expect your workers to risk their safety just because you can’t price a job properly then you’re a scumbag in my eyes. I wouldn’t dream of sending the lads to work on a roof without scaffolding, because I’m a decent human being and them going home to their kids at the end of the day is more important than a few quid in the back pocket.
I did daft things that were risky when I was younger, but most of us with half a brain grow out of it
I think trades and practical skills like yours have been so grossly undervalued by society that they are rapidly becoming the most lucrative professions. In my lifetime going to uni has been synonymous with ‘achievement’ and practical skills a sign of working class status and looked down upon. This has always seemed nuts to me. It’s all very well being educated but we don’t need all our kids aiming to go to university, we don’t need any more Gender Studies or Colonial Poetry graduates. University was elitist for a reason, much of it focused on learning for learning’s sake. Professions like doctors, engineers, physicists etc go to uni for a purpose but not everyone has the aptitude to become one of those, most of us need other skills to make a living and I can’t think of anything more useful than learning things that will make you more self-sufficient like carpentry, plumbing, electrics, building, mechanics, cooking, etc. Maybe that’s why they are undervalued. The fewer kids who learn such things, the less they can pass onto their kids and the more dependent we all become on the teat of the state and the corporations. How many of us can fix our own car? 1. We don’t have the skills 2. Cars are built in such a way now that you can’t anyway. 3. The govt keeps adding layers and layers of regulation and bureaucracy which are often nothing more than a money making exercise keeping bureaucrats in jobs but add cost and complexity to anyone wanting to enter that trade. Hardly any of us now can even change a plug or a tyre and that general knowledge and understanding of how things work is being lost successively with each generation. So if I were young now I would reject university and get a trade. Not only can it pay well but if we are heading for global apocalypse who are always the most useful people? Mechanics, plumbers, farmers and soldiers – or bankers, social media influencers and diversity consultants?
That’s one of the best comments I’ve read for a long time. Building homes is deep in our history, but for most long out of our thinking. I’ve been doing more trades as a DIYer fixing up my own house and I wish I’d started sooner. Maybe even made a profession out of it earlier. But to get there skill to build an entire modern house oneself is going to be a minority interest, it’ll take a certain mindset. How many delicate folk would even try heading down that long path?
Great to hear how you’ve done so well and the practicalities of it. Incidentally how much is it per square ft/m if you subtract the land cost?
The working classes CAN afford a modest family home and garden. The problem is that both adults need to work full time to pay for it. What’s the point of a home where you both have to be out all day? Has anybody considered that maybe our grandparents had it right? Man at work, earning a family wage, woman in the home looking after the kids? Or is that heresy?
It would be nice to have the choice for most, with one parent being able to afford to stay at home if they wanted to rather than being forced to dump the kids into daycare just to keep a roof over their heads
Well said!
Congratulations! 😉
Thanks!
Imagining a better present would be a good start, then the future can take care of itself.
The problem with unrestricted dreams of flying cars is that they require (a) a high degree of competence and an adequate degree of physical fitness to fly them; (b) regular reliable maintenance, and most of all (c) an air traffic control system that keeps the “all I want is my freedom” wingnuts strictly away from the driving seat. Because unrestricted flying cars in cities will kill lots of unwitting bystanders.
In general, new technological Utopias require new models of governance to be worked out, and the space between HG Wells on the one hand and Orwell or Huxley on the other is not well explored.
Unfortunately, there are far too many people who get more excited by “new models of governance” (usually meaning people like them in charge of the despised other – oh, let’s just call them “wingnuts”) than working to improve technology.
I wouldn’t have voted for Brexit if I couldn’t see as far as my own garden. The quiet life is not for everyone.
See also the civil servants that can’t see as far as their own desk.
Indeed. Your nearest and dearest, and beyond them those about you with whom you have meaningful dealings, the “little Platoons” Edmund Burke wrote of. The answer to pining for a vision of the future (common to all projects that call or fancy themselves “progressive”) is not pining for a different vision of the future (even if it is select carefully on the basis of the past to be one which is feasible) nor adopting a contrary ideology, but simply having a conservative temperament.
I absolutely agree. Evolution is not a planned thing it just happens because of the events and choices made in the present. And those things are to give ourselves and our kids the best chance of survival and a better life. The best thing is to develop a few core principles that loosely apply to all people in all eras. Stuff like don’t kill, don’t steal, individuals have rights and societies have responsibilities and don’t let anyone one or any institution have too much power because power corrupts. I’m sure there must be some things in history that give us those tried and tested principles. Everything from Plato to the Bible to the Magna Carta to the Constitution……..
Personally I’m optimistic about the future.
I believe that Britain will have a substantial competitive advantage in the next few decades.
First and foremost we have a temperate climate (the Met Office forecasts 18 days over 25C in 2100 rather than 10 now with a third fewer days below freezing). Global warming may bring problems elsewhere but it will be benign or beneficial for us.
We have gradually growing population and so are not prey to the demographic crunches likely to hit China, Japan and Germany. We now control our own immigration rules and so can select who comes here to join us and what skills they bring – the BNO programme is I think a good example of this.
We are an island and should (given the current dinghy problem) be able to work out how to limit and grant entry through our borders – important if global warming leads to ever increasing migrant flows.
We have a great pedigree for innovation, engineering and research – only 2 countries designed, tested, manufactured and distributed effective COVID vaccines.
We have started investing in a proper blue water navy capability and strengthened our old alliances with AUKUS which is important for protecting trade routes.
We are beginning to spread out around the country rather than coalescing around London due to remote working practices driven by the lockdowns. This will allow couples to buy homes big enough to raise families and so produce a contented and stable society. We are also limiting low-wage immigration so boosting the wages of the working class.
If we get it right we can be energy independent by the middle of the century with nuclear, hydrogen and renewables. We have plentiful access to natural gas and oil in the meantime.
We have a stable political system that bent but didn’t break despite the travails of leaving the EU and COVID. The threat of the SNP and the other nationalists is overblown.
My sense is that Boris will be back on top pretty soon once Omicron has passed through but if not, his potential replacements (Tory or Labour) are not really worrying.
In the US, I think we are seeing the stirring of a rearguard action against wokeism and the typical left wing overreach which has to happen every few decades to remind people how stupid and unpleasant it is.
I even think Charles might make a good king.
Happy 2022 UnHerders!
Dream on.
You certainly are optimistic Matt. The future could well be bright by focusing on the positives. I spent 25 years of my career managing IT system implementation projects and once the objectives had been defined the planning and costing estimations were fun and the way ahead looked optimistic. The project management reality was somewhat different, a never ending series of problem solving, overcoming hurdles and expression of the human condition. Those were either unlikely or inconcievable in the planning phase and the customers definitely had no understanding of the need to triple the budget and timescale for unforeseeable issues. Take the UK and Brexit in october 2019: tough negotiations with the EU but we had a PM with a vision who knew what he wanted and the future outside of the EU was looking bright after a probable few years of teething troubles. Then the minor problem of NI throwing a small spanner in the works but who could have known that Covid SARS 2 would rear it’s ugly head (apart from maybe NIAID/NIH, Fauci, Wuhan). That wasn’t in the plan!
Funnily enough I work in the same game and completely agree with your view. I was really just pointing out we are better placed than some, more pessimistic, commentators allow. There are a million other things that could knock us off course but that’s life.
Mostly good. Well said. Read also Matt Ridley ” The Rational Optimist” . The world is getting better all the time, but that’s not going to help news outlets. the best thing Boris could is to push for a strong fracking industry in this country and forget all the “net zero” nonsense.
No doubt globalism helped poor countries, like China, get richer. The west has stagnated.
Yes I agree about fracking. They dropped Cameron’s commitment to it as part of a ‘barnacle scraping’ exercise in the last election to avoid distracting from the main issues.
Surely this was a mistake – what better way to level up than a fracking boom in Lancashire.
Not fracking. Do we really want our green and pleasant land to end up looking like Alberta??? I’d rather go for a sustainable population, with limits, and a nimble nuclear contribution to an otherwise generally sustainable life. Plus a big f*** off defensive capability. Global supply chains and the incessant consumption of cheap plastic tat are the worst things ever. Not to mention our complete lack of any kind of self sufficiency in food and energy. Being beholden to Putin or anyone else to keep us warm in winter has to be a bad idea. Letting Islam eat us from the inside out is a bad idea. Giving China our money is a bad idea. Rewarding kids for being a non binary Gender Studies graduate rather than a farmer or a plumber or a sparky is a really bad idea. Yet that’s what is happening.
Why Alberta as an example? Why not Nigeria or Venezuela or Russia or Saudi Arabia – or for that matter the US? Canada actually imports oil from Saudi Arabia because everyone is so obsessed with beating up on Alberta. Very progressive. If you haven’t been there before I should also note that Alberta is beautiful.
Two rejoinders here. The U.K. has the same tfr (total fertility per women) as Germany. The U.K. has always had border control with non European countries. If European immigration slows down the immigrants will be mostly non European.
The goal is to take the best candidates regardless of origin and up to a limit which allows the existing population and institutions to absorb them comfortably. This can only be done through a democratic mechanism in my view as the comfortable absorption rate has to be judged by politicians who are responsible to voters. I suspect we will still have loads of European newcomers in future years as well as those from the RoW.
Like the Germans, we should look for ways to encourage higher numbers of births per women. I wonder whether we are also starting to see the shoots of this starting- I think there are some signs of it.
Encouraging higher number of births per woman (presumably through benefits and incentives) will not be allowed to be limited to just ethnic Germans though. All that will happen is that the money and benefits will go to imported Germans with cultures that already view women as brood mares and Germany as we know it will disappear.
No more abortion would be a good start. It would also free up doctors and nurses to save lives.
1. We didn’t have control of our borders in reality. Once you were in getting rid of you was (and still is) extraordinarily difficult, time-consuming, expensive and often unsuccessful (EU law meant you couldn’t stop someone coming in and you can ask someone to leave voluntarily but if they refuse a lengthy legal process we are likely to lose is the only avenue left. Recently for example it was decreed that homeless EU citizens in the UK cannot be deported, even though they have no right to be here). The only answer is to stop people coming in at all and/or being far tougher getting rid of people, which nowadays means us being painted as a fascist pariah breaking countless human rights laws.
2. A lot of ‘European’ immigration is increasingly non-European by the back door anyway. Thanks to EU weakness, Schengen and multiculti self loathing
3. All immigration should slow down, this idea that we always need to increase our population by a Newcastle a year is ridiculous and unprecedented in history.
Only 2 countries have developed vaccines? I believe Sinovac and Sputnik have been widely distributed too, but point is still valid. One of only 4 countries….
Agreed. Germany also made a big contribution to Pfizer and France would have produced a vaccine but pursued a valid but ultimately unsuccessful idea.
Since the future is unknown, just a story in our minds, I’ll go with your story.
My only quibble with your comment is that there is no real world “effective” Covid vaccine. Effectiveness across most age cohorts becomes negative against variants and there is data suggesting that universal vaccination is itself the driving mechanism by which variants transmit.
The virus was transmissible and mutating long before the vaccines made an appearance
Granted but UNIVERSAL vaccination puts the virus under evolutionary pressure so that escape variants may more likely be selected. There is evidence that this happened with mutation Y449S: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8509097/
Universal vaccination puts us in an arms race with the virus because escape mutations may become the mechanism of transmission. The outcome may not be manageable because nothing can be done soon enough. A herd immunity/focussed protection statgegy (whereby a heterogeneous population with broad spectrum natural immunity keep the virus in check) may have been a preferable strategy.
Early treatment was available from almost the beginning. Powerful people who had more money to make, ensured that these protocols were never given air. Hundreds of thousands were consigned to death.
I think we have seen a decent reduction in harmfulness to the older and most vulnerable groups due to vaccination. I am sceptical that there is much point vaccinating younger, healthier people as the current vaccines seem to have little effect on transmission. And might contribute to vaccine neutralising mutations as you say.
I like your future. Here’s hoping it happens.
I agree. This is possible IF the right decisions are taken and implemented effectively. But I think this might be too much of an ask of our bureaucracy. The left are on the march wanting revolution and trying to cow us into submission to their nutty ideologies, the conservatives are no longer conservative, borders are a dirty word and population growth is a. a main cause of climate change which will lead to more migrant incursions b. largely driven by immigration already, which has not always been from cultures that are compatible with ours. London is now minority British. If it comes to defending these shores from invaders where will their loyalty lie?
Like you Matt I’m optimistic about the future, but only the short-term 0-25 years, max. Beyond that I’m pessimistic: the indicators are not good. Rich/poor divide, the 1%. Children being worse off financially than their parents. Growth in housing problems. Increasing pollution. Increasing bureaucracy. Increasing debt. Frankly I’m glad personally that I won’t be around for it, but I feel for my children, grandchildren same so on. Hopefully the world, our world, will improve – but without something extraordinary happening I doubt it .
Some things I’ve learned over the years working for a small technology company. I mean mechanical technology, not “tech” which is basically software and coding, important as that is.
There are two basic ways of innovation:
One is top-down. You define the problem and seek a solution.
The other is bottom-up. You have something interesting and find out what you can do with it, refining as you go.
I would say that, over time, the second has been more successful.
But it relies on individual freedom, modest cost of doing business, ability to raise private capital when needed, good engineering environment and talent pool.
All things that the modern regulatory society militates against.
So I’ll repeat my quote:
“Regulatory complexity is a subsidy from small business to big business”
Sláinte!
And all the best for 2022.
Top down has the capital thus drowns out the voice of the bottom up refiners
The bottom-up companies can access this capital in exchange for equity, if they don’t mind relinquishing control. All things being equal, as they grow and move up, this creates more space at the bottom of the pyramid. Often with the original inventor/entrepreneur leaving and starting again.
But regulatory complexity, which is easy for overstaffed corporations to agree to, has the effect of pulling the ladder up and eventually starving the upper layers of necessary innovation from below.
So basically globalisation is simply allowing the biggest companies to hoover up all the smaller competitors and get bigger and bigger and bigger.
That’s what’s happening all the time. You will notice that companies who got help to grow from the government, i.e. us, sell off to the highest bidder once they become successful.
Which is why Brussels loves it.
The article doesn’t seem at all clear about what it wants to say. Fictional literary representations of the future aren’t meant to be predictions; they’re either mirrors held up to the author’s present (Wells’ The Time Machine), or what’s depicted is depicted because it’s cheap to film (which is why they beam up and down in Star Trek).
I don’t understand the idea of corporate visions of the future at all, but it is odd that the writer doesn’t make the connection between apocalyptic forecasts and the left. One of the reasons people of a certain age are unpersuaded by climate bedwetting is that we can remember all the other times leftists have predicted planetary doom in the past. There’s been Malthus, nuclear winter, terminal pollution and now ecofascism, and what they all have in common is a demand for left wing “solutions” to problems that don’t exist, so have to be prophesied.
Only the left does this. You don’t get the right saying the planet will be destroyed if taxes aren’t cut.
One reason some of these problems never manifested is that people listened to the warnings and started working to avoid them. Terminal pollution and acid rain are old hat *because* we started to put limits on pollution and SO2 emissions. The ozone hole (you left that one out) is old hat * because* there was a worldwide ban on CFCs.
One reason these things are done by the left is that the left is in the business of identifying problems and trying to do something about them. They may often get carried away, but large parts of the right seem more in the business of deciding what they are willing to do, and retrofitting the threat estimates so that the problem fits the desired solution. That is not the way you win a war. There is a lovely quote, referring to the SOE controllers who ignored alarm signals from agents parachuted into the Netherlands – and thus alllowed the Germans to continue to arrest and run their entire agent network in Holland (the ‘Englandsspiel’): “Nothing so disturbing to the peace of mind [of the controllers] could possibly be true‘.
Well said. I have personal experience of the Y2K issue when people kept saying “see, nothing happened, what was the panic?”. I had to carefully explain that I spent months checking, reprogramming and replacing safety and process critical systems to ensure that nothing happened, as did many others across the world.
Whilst people just pointing out problems can be annoying we do need them, even if they don’t have the answers. However, what we don’t need are people pointing to problems that we are already well aware of, or positing vague utopias.
New technology can come with associated problems, and we all need to be aware of this, and willing to take action as soon as the problems arise. Too often in the past we have ignored problems, hoping that they would go away, especially if we have build a whole infra-structure or way of life around the problematic technology. So, as I see it, it is neccessary to keep a watching brief on what is going on, but planning a future makes me shudder with horror.
Interesting to hear about your Y2K work.
I did the same, but was only working on commodity trading systems, where the worst that could happen was my clients losing money.
Did you work on systems where lives could be at risk?
Yes I did. So, as you can imagine it was taken very seriously by the management and staff alike.
Yes I worked on stuff like that too. I was on call on NYE 1999 just in case.
Good point. Although an asteroid wiping out the earth, pandemics, population growth and ecological destruction are all real dangers that should be mitigated. Unless you think that billions of tonnes of plastics in the ocean is a good thing and a good use of finite resources? I’m not an eco warrior but the idea that humans can continue on our current path of endless ‘growth’ without consequences is insane
I feel like I should point out most of you have an advanced computer in your pocket that you can use to instantly communicate with anyone around the globe, play games, listen to music, and has access to a gargantuan electronic information and communications system.
That is the problem. We are obsessed with play and not work.
Yet we’re working longer hours than previous generations, with many in insecure gig employment roles that don’t pay enough to buy a family home. Many businesses with the advent of smart phones essentially expect their employees to be constantly on call answering email morning, noon and night.
A bit more play would be a good thing, but I’m certainly not seeing it
Depends what we mean by working. Sitting at a desk talking about diversity and inclusion over Zoom is not what I call work but is something I have to endure every day to earn half decent money.
Work is what you do to earn a wage, it doesn’t matter what you do to earn that wage. The fact is we’re working longer hours than previous generations, yet home ownership rates are falling, especially for young families.
Ah yes. And a device which is also used to spy, track & censor you 24×7, all the while building up the kind of dossier of individuals (including biometric data) which all the security agencies on the planet together could not have dreamed of 50 years ago. Some advice: liberate yourself from the curated digital environment you live in while you still can; trash the device; and read some decent books while you can still get them.
In the spirit of this article – who would have thought back in 2007 that the world would be transformed by a consumer electronic device? No one knows the future. And also in the spirit article Steve Jobs isn’t here to witness it because his personal asteroid from outer space / pandemic / climate event came in the form of boring old cancer.
F**k me! Is it April the 1st already? I only had the one bottle of wine
A very long winded way of saying ‘there’s nothing new under the Sun’.
Leonardo De’Vinci imagined flying machines and armoured fighting vehicles.
Whatever became of those crazy ideas?
The reason that man has such a grip on this planet (currently) is that we have an insatiable curiosity to try things out until they work.
Don’t see that changing anytime soon.
“The moral of the story? If you’re going to borrow a future from the past, find one that worked.”
“John Michael Greer is the author of over thirty books. He served twelve years as Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America.”
what a load of tripe this mess is
Yes, his CV indicates where he’s coming from.
I’m sure a few more mentions of horse dewormer or some deep state conspiracies with ill defined aims and it would have no doubt got your approval.
Also why mention his background in your criticism? A favourite tactic of the woke left is playing the man rather than the ball, implying that due to their opponents history their argument is essentially invalid, now I see you using the same techniques.
If a vivisectionist writes a article on saving animals one would point the contradiction out.
I don’t know what I think of this article beyond a wholehearted approval of the takedown of Klaus Schwab’s obviously dystopian vision.
I am not sure that the initial point holds: that we are living through a collective failure to envision the future. Can we say with confidence that previous generations succeeded in this respect, or actually needed to? It hardly needs stating that the future is unknown and mostly unknowable. The Star Trek futurism of the 1960s was ambitious not because it was unrealistic in my view, but because the pace of technological progress, in particular the rate at which energy technology was progressing at the time implied such a future. The USA at that time was in the middle of the post-war boom, had nuclear bombs, nuclear energy and was a global superpower. Yes, it had the USSR to compare with itself then, but the subsequent course of history does, I think, justify the national confidence that informed such dreams of the future in that time and place, in my opinion.
Ok so we don’t have fusion energy yet, but even if it remains a pipe dream (I’m guessing not), the futurism of the 1960s was granted in myriad other ways. We don’t have warp drive and limitless energy from Star Trek (it was over 300 years in an imaginary future so why would we in the real 2022?), but we all ended up with the flip-opening communicators of Star Trek within 20 years of the show. Further to that, our modern computer networks are something that wasn’t even imagined by the show in the 1980s when Patrick Stewart led the hugely successful reboot – it was still semi-daft storylines about having to plug things in, or the ship’s computer discovering to its surprise that somebody wasn’t on board etc – the sorts of things that modern cheap in-home tech automates so seamlessly for us nowadays that we take it for granted.
And there is another Star Trek invention – the Borg – which is very likely to achieve some semblance of reality soon but in a form that we find welcome: biotechnology, nanotechnology and robotics. Instead of making us a bunch of freakish and implacably-ruthless space Nazis like the Borg, this stuff will be eradicating disease, extending life and augmenting mental and physical performance. And it’s no pipe-dream: some of it’s happening right now.
What the article seems to be getting wrong is that we are somehow required to conceive and predict the way we will live in order to invent our way to the future imagined. It has never worked this way: inventions and discoveries produce change only after the fact when it seems obvious that this is what they would do, but which is inconceivable prior to that point.
What I would agree with – implied but not openly stated above – is that we need an explanation for the sclerotic pace of growth in economic, social and cultural terms which dogs modern western nations. My own view is simply this: we’ve allowed a bureaucratic State to flourish which stamps out the changes we want to see. Not by deliberately getting in the way, but simply by existing in the first place, with its innately conservative attitude towards the status quo, which ensures that nobody so much as tries to effect major change, let alone tries it and fails.
This is of course speculation on my part but if anyone wants to dismiss it, try the following thought experiment: if cars were invented now, instead of 120 years ago, can you imagine the reaction of the modern State to the proposition that every adult over 17 years old will have the right to pass a basic skills test and then drive, unsupervised, something capable of going faster than most trains? In particular, the modern A road, with a 60mph speed limit and no central barrier, allowing cars to pass in opposite directions about three feet apart at a net approach velocity of 120mph? Nobody would believe that it would even be possible without a daily death toll in the tens of thousands, yet because all this evolved in the absence of a huge and powerful secular clerisy which imagines it knows best, millions of cars are doing exactly that every day almost perfectly safely.
It is this where our imagination has failed – by permitting the institutionalisation of pessimism and misanthropy. We can fix it in the West if we want, and remain on course to a better future, or we can let the East take over. One way or another, progress will continue. The West just has to decide if it wants to remain involved.
Do we? It’s up to us, and by “us” I don’t mean the bunch of chancers in the public sector who have finagled themselves into the position of speaking for us.
Brilliantly put!
Well put, your last two paragraphs especially.
One could also try this thought experiment:
Would the Acropolis, Mont St Michel, St Michael’s Mount etc get planning permission these days?
“…The drawers, he knew, were full of beetles. Hundreds of thousands of beetles. He was free, now, to do nothing with his time but study them, sketch them, annotate them, classify them: specimen by specimen, species by species, decade after decade. The prospect was so blissful that he almost keeled over with joy…”
……………………………
Anyway, wishing everyone a very declinist and dystopian 2022!
………….…………………
Maria Deluca: “How does it feel, being seven thousand years old?”
Paul Durham: “That depends.”
Maria Deluca: “On what?”
Paul Durham: “On how I want it to feel.”
“Anyway, wishing everyone a very declinist and dystopian 2022!”
it is not wishing when it is inevitable. Wishing every one a pleasant servitude under your New World Order masters of the World Economic Forum and IMF.
Ha, that’s the spirit! Happy New Year!
Karl Marx 1848 pamphlet The Communist Manifesto… still trying to dream a different future after numerous failed attempts.
For most of our existence the future was exactly the same as the present, or worse. Now we are obsessed with leisure and possessions and all we want is more and more. We see this reflected in the western governments attitude to the pandemic. Getting back to normal is about us getting back to leisure activities and not wealth creation, and without that we are going nowhere. The west is destroying everything we have created with its obsession with an imagined climate crisis that will destroy our energy supplies and without cheap reliable energy we are going backwards. This would never have happened if we had not exported jobs and production to China and Asia. They have the sense to realise that fossil fuel is our best source of energy because they don’t want to follow the west into economic collapse.
You remind me of Neville Chamberlain. He believed that Hitler was a man of his word, and that you could reach a stable and peaceful future by giving in to Germany’s reasonable demands, after which they would stop being difficult. He was neither evil nor stupid, it is just that he thought that the alternative – another world war – was just too terrible to contemplate.
You believe that having to choose between a climate catastrophe and having to adjust – expensively – to doing without cheap reliable and abundant energy is just too terrible to contemplate.
And that, dear Rasmus, is the problem. You have to believe in a climate catastrophe when all the real world evidence, as opposed to the fantasies of mathematical modellers, confirms the opposite. There is no climate catastrophe, crisis or whatever. The problem is our addiction to apocalyptic narratives.
Cheap energy is great but it also leads to population growth, overconsumption of cheap tat, and waste. None of which are good
I agree with your first sentence but I’m not sure about the rest. The truth is that rising living standards are a historic anomaly, not the norm. We seem to be beset by a growing technocratic class that believes that progress ought to stop and go into reverse – not for themselves obviously, but for everyone else. The excuse is climate change, but the motive is the same intellectual sewage that inspired Marxism to begin with: the desire for power over others.
But we do, for the moment, still live in the age of rising living standards – yes, even in the West, things are still getting better, albeit not at fast as the growth miracle presently driving the developing world. It is true that the obsession with climate change will destroy our own rising living standards if we try to implement the political solutions presently under discussion, but it remains pretty unlikely that they are politically feasible. Everyone thinks the new ideas are fine as long as it’s other people that will have to adopt them. As soon as it’s time to spend ten grand on a heating system that’s worse than the cheap one they have now, give up the car and get the bus because they can’t afford a new electric car, and eat vegetable-based protein instead of meat? Suddenly it looks a lot more sensible to vote for whichever party agrees to push the plan out another decade.
So now we are so deranged, it takes a druid to scribe the most rational artical I have read in a long time.
Historically, the easiest way to envision the future is to see what innovations the very rich enjoy now that will be filtered down to the mass market in a slicker form some years down the line. Rather depressingly I can’t really spot anything your average billionaire has that is innovative and due to be packaged for the mass market. Any ideas? Unfortunately, I don’t know any billionaires.
Expensive divorces ?
The rich are starting to experience space tourism. If it weren’t for that pesky energy problem it could become the new Disney fastpass
If the energy problem is resolved I can imagine families traipsing round the moon rather like those trips to Lapland to see Father Christmas. A pretty horrible thought.
I suspect rather depressingly three dimensional video games is probably the next big invention.
“Tomorrow is what today was yesterday.” (entry to a New Statesman Competition for ‘self-evident proverbs’ in the 1970s).
The future never comes
Indeed. As is well known in meteorology, there is a 40% chance of tomorrow’s weather being the same as today’s
Ah! “Ernest Callenbach’s Ecotopia”. Still in print, I believe. A 1975 sci-fi traveller’s tale, a journey to a breakaway USA; Oregon, Northern California and Washington have set up a new paradise on ecological principles. Everything is recycled, feminists sagely lead, people move to the natural rhythms of the seasons…
But what happens to black people in this stable-state paradise? They get a couple of pages – self-isolating in Soul Cities and speak Swahili. To quote the brilliant Shiva Naipaul (“Black and White” – the best account of Jonestown) “the ecological future, has no place for them”.
I always thought it would be great when we all finally got to wear streamlined, easy clean outfits but actually that didn’t turn out too well. I appreciate the call to support something rather than tearing bad things down. I think we used to have more as citizens (UK); it would be good to get some of it back.
Drip-dry nylon shirts ? String vests ….
I was thinking more along the lines of space-age, figure-hugging, leotards = jeggings
The reason those didn’t happen wasn’t the failure to develop the materials needed. It’s that we all got fatter and would have looked ridiculious trying to dress like T’Pol from Star Trek.
That doesn’t stop certain people from trying though, and frankly we could do with a law against it.
I doubt the future will be planned. It will just evolve uncontrolled.
At some point that will be true, but in the short to medium run, I suspect and dread the future being planned, whether from Beijing, Davos, London, Brussels or Washington: they all look fascist to me. And I dread in the moment the shock that would collapse the planned fascist future back into uncontrolled evolution, even as I look forward to it happening to revive liberty.
A little over a century ago, an environmentalist named René Jules Dubos posited “Where human beings are concerned, trend is never destiny”.
I always considered Star Trek to be less about the technological frills than about the idea that humans evolved to have a common purpose of exploration and discovery – and that people of all origins could put on the same uniform, adhere to the same principles, while still having some semblance of individuality.
What an utterly pointless article, one that attacks in a chaotic and ill-focused manner, well, pretty much everyone, full of windy generalities but not a single constructive point. He jumbles up science fiction and political utopian visions as if they were somehow the same thing, and seems to treat his readers as morons. We can’t always predict the future correctly. And so? But Sometimes we do get it broadly right. Aviation for example.
I suppose we should not expect very much intelligent comment from someone ludicrously styling himself a Grand Archdruid! Does he know the first thing about that mysterious – but very extinct – former religious sect?
OT:
Very good article by Kate Hoey in the Sunday Torygraph today. (but then, when did she ever write anything mediocre ?)
The problem is usually with the people who are in power, or rather, that pitifully few decide over matters that affect many. Exacerbating issues certainly are cultural dilution and the existence of social media.
It’s true that societally, unification into a greater amalgam has many merits. Indeed, a central government can do a lot of good. At the same time (and this is the age-old battle between progress and tradition) such governance over time leads to cultural dilution. In a strictly entropic fashion, everything mixes with everything else and an indistinguishable blob is the unavoidable result. This blob is then more susceptible to extremist trends, propaganda, and an authoritarian style of leadership.
Then there is the issue of having individuals govern large nations. Power corrupts, and the eye atop the pyramid is blind. A hive mentality is forced upon whole nations, after the fashion of a single individual or a small group, who may actually just want “the best” for everyone. However, individuality is necessary for the survival of the human race, as it’s our only driving force of adaptation. With single-mindedness, we not only lose any enjoyment in life, we also lose the competence of survival. Issues that are never communicated can not be solved.
Humanity is too large a system. And by that I do not mean the population numbers, I mean how they are governed and connected. Social media is a toxin to a healthy society, as it’s inevitably a tool of group-think. This is because while excellent ideas can be shared this way, such systems will always strive towards the mad tendencies of masses. In masses, humans become stupid, emotionally driven creatures. Social media is the permanent, passive mass that tells us what to think on issues that might be solved in vastly different ways locally. Thus, we sacrifice individual ingenuity for the sake of a popularity contest that takes place in a hypothetical universe, with people who do not really exist and whose opinions have no actual influence on our lives. Social media is the domain of slogans, five-word-messages and reporting anything you dislike.
It’s time that instead of looking for popularity by repeating rehashed opinions on meaningless websites, people actually started to take an interest in whatever organization of governance they can partake in. Thusly, it’s possible to invest time into building a future that does not need a vision, but can be created as we go along. Together.
The original Star Trek series ran from 1966 – 1969. During its first season, NBC threatened to cancel the series because the show’s ratings had dropped it to the middle of program rankings. The show was subsequently moved to the “Friday evening death slot” (8pm to 11pm) and only lasted three seasons in total.
It can reasonably be argued that Star Trek subsequently turned into a lasting franchise slowly-but-surely because the show inspired a cult following among scientists, mathematicians, computer scientists, general geeks, etc, to think positively beyond ‘what is’ to ‘what might be’.
Conversely, during Star Trek’s final year of its series, the widely popular book The Population Bomb was published by Paul Ehrlich, predicting worldwide famine in the 1970s (subsequently edited to the 1970s and 1980s in later published editions). The predictions in the book were spectacularly wrong, but the book inspired generations of apocalyptic worrywarts – scientists, social science majors, politicians, etc, to proclaim the end of the world “any day now.” As an example, who can forgot progressive luminary Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez definitively stating, in 2019, that “[t]he world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change.”
Evolution has spoken – you can take the person out of organized religion, but you can’t take the religious impulses out of the person and they will find a substitute.
Under this premise, I’ll take the Star Trek utopian dreamers over the apocalyptic worrywarts. Give me a Steve Jobs (who reimagines the possible and places a computer that accesses almost all of humankind’s collective writings in my pocket) over another derivative AOC or Greta Thunberg worrywart any day and twice on Sunday.
12 years from 2019 is 2031 – she’s still in with a chance.
On another point, we keep being told that children and teenagers today are worrying themselves into mental ill-health because of their climate change (I am not concerned here about whether it is a justified fear or not), but I remember that I, and probably many people on this site, spent a lot of my youth with the continual nuclear Sword of Damocles over my head and I and my contemporaries didn’t all become a basket cases. I wondered if it were because of constant coverage, but I remember that the coming nuclear holocaust was covered quite extensively. Does anyone have any suggestions as to why there is this difference?
Because mental health issues in the young is an “acceptable / favoured” news item nowadays ?
Because Real Life (school, exams, getting a job) eventaully took priority back then ?
Because we became habituated to the perceived threat ?
Because the threat receded as wiser heads prevailed ? – although according to some commentators the sunny outcome of the Cuba debacle was down to dumb luck.
The best–and worst–thing about “the future” is that it does not exist…while the best and worst thing about the past is that it does exist.
At a banal level, I remember my father and his peergroup in the late 60s and early 70’s literally paralysed with fear seeing the ‘ long haired communists” in such pop groups as The Rolling Stones, on Top of The Pops, predicting that they would lead a revolution that would destroy Britain…. whilst at the same time adding ” and where will these louts and their ghastly excuse for music be in 3 years time?”…… well, wind forward 50 plus years, and having encountered these ” communist louts” since in the shooting and hunting fields, in the paddocks of various racecourses, farming and landowning, and even as Hound judges at Hunting shows, as well as parents at leading public schools….. I suggest that homo sapiens is as unpredictable in some ways as it is predictable in others, not least the abandonment of Leftist ideology, when maturity and money arrives!!!
Brilliantly succinct.
How about an example of one of those oppressed visions of the future that a hasn’t been forced upon us by corporate marketing teams? All you did was criticize without even bothering to mention an actual alternative.
The reason there are no flying cars is that there’s no market for them which would justify their development, not the engineering tradeoffs required. What would be the use case, even if there were affordable flying cars? The average person who lives in civilization and is also not a qualified pilot couldn’t just go flying around in such a thing. What would it take to legally fly it and insure it anywhere around where other humans live? How would the consumer skyways be regulated?
Interesting point, Mo.Actually, we’re getting glimpses of this new reality right now. There is a huge effort being put into the development of “Un-Crewed Airborne Systems” (UCAS). At the moment, their flights are being carried out within Civil Aviation Authority-imposed zones from which normally piloted aircraft are excluded. These flights are currently doing things which can be done more cheaply and efficiently with conventional methods. But, technology evolution being what it is, it is being done by UCAS because it is possible. However, given time, evolution of the technology there may come a point where UCAS and conventionally piloted aircraft will share same the same airspace under an evolved system of regulation. It is then a short step to creating a UCAS capable of carrying people, the flying car. But then, neither so-called smart motorways nor fully autonomous vehicles have come to pass in the timescale envisaged by their proponents. Must confess, I’m not holding by breath on that one either.
“Events dear boy, events” so said Harold McMillan (allegedly) when asked by a journalist ‘what was his most trubling problem as a Prime Minister ?’, implying that politicians and by extension everyone else had little or no control over what happened to them and therefore little or no control over the future
Well, we are witnessing just such “an event” right now that has been running since late 2019.
So, how to think and arm ourselves for an inevitably uncertain future teeming with black swans ?
I am certainly sympatico to the authors futuristic vision of having to get our heads around dealing with slow and fast simultaneously / technological wizadry versus hard limits. Practically speaking this implies to me a willingness to be open to many different ideas from many different quarters (even foreigners) and yes … gambling from time to time and being willing to turn on a sixpence if circumstances demand it.
A contemporary example would be Angela Merkel’s solution to an urgent demographic problem in Germany (a rapidly ageing population and not enough births to replenish the economically productive portion of the population, at a fast enough rate) so she imported 1 million – just like that.
Clearly right now, there seems to be an almost universal tendency to circle the wagons and retreat to the countryside, manifested by increasing political and social polarisation. I don’t think this is any way conducive to open thinking in any way shape or form.
Personally I have great faith in individuals’ entrepeneurial spirit and ambition and above all a desire to trade – maybe the oldest technique of all for starting a conversation “with the other side” and discovering new perspectives, new ideas, new solutions.
Like Matt M, I am optimistic about our largely unknowable future and the ability of at least some human beings to adapt.
I’m with the Cool Your Jets brigade on this. The whole Great Enrichment of the last 200 years — real per-capita income increasing by 3,000 percent — has been unexpected, with each technological leap and social change un-looked-for by — and really unwelcome to — the Great and the Good.
It was Voltaire’s Candide that decided, after all the fun and games, to go work in the garden.
I think the author’s bio is more interesting than his essay….
It’s fascinating what John Michael Greer has come up regarding predictions from a century or more ago that mirror our present world. However, I wonder if there aren’t significant distortions in his account. One that I know of is R.U.R.. the play that gave us the word “robot”. The trouble is, the robots in Capek’s work weren’t the electronic automatons the word now means. Rather, the playwright used the Czech word “robota”, which apparently means something like “slave” or “serf”, to describe flesh-and-blood beings that were created by humans to do all the work hitherto done by Homo sapiens. (It would be very interesting to discern whether Capek was strongly influenced by Mary Shelley’s “Frankenstein”.) In any event, citing Capek as forecasting our present issues with AI and robotization seems a bit of a stretch. BTW, Wikipedia suggests “androids” as a better term for the Czech dramatist’s fictional creations, in our contemporary vocabulary.
Another prediction that Greer claims presages our modern dilemmas is Jules Verne’s supposed claim of nuclear fusion being our power source in the years to come. Could he have really known that much – if anything – about fusion several decades before Einstein’s theories? I have my doubts. So too with a number of others, especially Forster and internet connectivity. That’s just a little hard to believe that he came that close to the present day internet.
I’m also a bit miffed that Greer seems to think that visions of the future depend solely on new technologies, or improvements on old ones. There are social matters which have little or nothing to do with technology.
I am convinced (no I can’t prove it physically) that the “hard ceiling” for Man’s technological advancement is the ability to alter his own source code. This, as far as my pea brain can tell, will fulfill the old deceptive promise that man could achieve the level of gods – the Promethean ambition. When man starts to “author” himself, as it were, it’s over. God will intervene. That’s my conviction. So Greer and others can speculate all they want about the future of mankind (or humanity if that triggers you). But the biotech clock is ticking. If you disagree- most probably do- then be sure and factor the genetic hybrids and other abominations into the futuramas and metaverses.
Pace Julie Blinde’s biting critique, bearing in mind the unattributable quotation “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”, I Had a vision of reading this in 200 years time, while listening to Side 2 of Sting’s ‘Nothing like the sun’, and feeling a sense of nostalgic relief, thinking “Thank goodness that’s all over now”.
Well that’s the first time I’ve later discovered myself reading a druid’s writings! Very thought provoking: here are two.
Is our future, the future of humans, utterly limited by the biology of our own bodies? A human, any human, can not last light-years of travel, can not survive extraordinary accelerations and decelerations, can only survive naturally in a very narrow range of “life supporting” environments. Without creating and surrounding our bodies with mini “life supporting” environments: warm clothes, scuba gear, spacesuits, oxygen masks etc we can only survive in incredibly specific intersections of conditions compared to those existing in the universe. The wrong temperature, light, air quality levels, terrain (or lack of it) are unsurvivable – our species can not physiologically adapt fast enough.
“If you’re going to borrow a future from the past, find one that worked.” – for it to have worked means it became part of our present. Such futures then are not so any more and offer nothing new.