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Ireland’s migration election History shapes the nation's populism

Will Ireland's politicians be chased out? Photo by Artur Widak/Anadolu via Getty Images.

Will Ireland's politicians be chased out? Photo by Artur Widak/Anadolu via Getty Images.


November 28, 2024   6 mins

In many ways, Dundrum looks like the average Irish village. There’s a family butcher, a pub called Bertie’s, and rows of squatting slate-grey terraces. Yet walk down the R505, where Dundrum melts into the hedgerows of County Tipperary, and you’ll soon spot something else. There, outside Dundrum House, is an anti-migrant camp. Established back in August, locals are fighting the planned settlement of 277 refugees, with the former hotel set to be converted into an International Protection Accommodation Services (IPAS) centre.

Beyond this protest in the fields, though, what’s really striking about the Dundrum camp are the signs. There’s a Trumpist riff — “Make Dundrum Great Again” — but also splashes of offbeat humour. One poster borrows from Father Ted. “Careful Now!” it says. “Down with this sort of thing.” Another shows the late Richard Harris, in a still from a classic film, advising an interloper to be “a Good Yank and go Home!” The same banner includes two other notes. “Yes to Ukrainians, Golf Club, Gym Venue,” says one. “No to Racism and IPAS Centre,” proclaims the other.

This, then, is Irish populism on the eve of Friday’s election: idiosyncratic, humorous, keen to distinguish anti-migrant fears from straightforward racism. Just like the impromptu camp at Dundrum, meanwhile, this is a movement that’s basically from the grassroots, even as it contains a deep well of historical perspective. And if it’s unlikely to enjoy success in the short term, the bubbling rage at Dundrum is sure to secure concrete expression sooner or later, especially in a country with a robust tradition of political outsiders — and especially if the triumph of populism across the Atlantic destabilises Ireland still further.

For years, Ireland was the great political outlier. Let other countries have Brexit or Le Pen: Éire remained aloof. And if the latest polls are to be believed, populism won’t sweep the Dáil on Friday either. Fine Gael, headed by the incumbent Taoiseach Simon Harris, is currently at 19%. Fianna Fáil, Harris’s coalition partners, are on 21%, just one point ahead of the Sinn Féin opposition. Given, moreover, that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have already announced they’ll stick to their coalition agreement, the political centre will likely hold for now.

But if the headline results on Friday are likely to indicate business as usual — Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil have been permanent fixtures of Irish government for 100 years — the status quo is hardly stable. That’s clear enough from media coverage in the run-up to the election, with many reports focused on the nation’s simmering discontent, healthy government finances and solid economic growth of 2% notwithstanding. You get the same sense listening to the Irish themselves: according to the European Social Survey, the average Irish voter rates their satisfaction with their country’s democracy at a mere 5.9 out of 10.

How can this unhappiness be explained? One obvious factor is immigration: of both economic migrants and refugees seeking asylum. Having been a net exporter of people for over 150 years, net migration into Ireland now stands at almost 75,000 per year, with a fifth of those now living in Ireland having been born elsewhere. In particular, there has been a notable rise in the number of people seeking asylum, with the rate jumping by 94% in the first six months of 2024 alone.

Worries over migration feed into broader concerns. The Irish economy is booming, after all, but the recent influx has put immense pressure on housing and other services. That’s clear enough somewhere like Dundrum: those 277 migrants are set to be introduced into a community of just 221. Quite aside from the sense that communities are changing, that’s leading to a chronic shortage of housing, with Ireland having the worst record in the EU for accommodation for young people. Dovetailed with shuttered village pubs and community and anger against the political class is tangible.

It’s clear, then, that all the ingredients for Irish populism are there and ready to brew. Yet as the polls so vividly suggest, a shock result remains unlikely: something that’s basically down to the unwillingness of mainstream politicians to move with the voters. For their part, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have generally been reluctant to accept the need for lower numbers. As recently as last December a government minister accused politicians of cloaking themselves in “victimhood” when they claimed that public debate around immigration was being suppressed.

“All the ingredients for Irish populism are there and ready to brew.”

Until recently, anyone looking to give the establishment a bloody nose might have looked to Sinn Féin, what with its heady mix of Irish nationalism and socialist economics. Yet while the party polled as high as 36% two years ago, it’s since fallen away dramatically. Immigration is once again the culprit here, with Sinn Féin’s progressive leaders increasingly out of step with the electorate. According to one poll from May, 63% of all Irish voters wanted a more restrictive immigration policy, a figure that rose to 70% among Sinn Féin supporters. The same poll found that younger, poorer and more urban voters were most worried about Irish migration levels. That’s exactly the demographics Sinn Féin most relies on — even as Sinn Féin leaders like Mary Lou McDonald have, until recently, been extremely reluctant to comment on immigration directly.

Discontent does have some outlets. With the big three parties unwilling to drastically change tack on immigration, some have turned to Aontú, which blends nationalism and conservatism in ways Sinn Féin can’t. Yet with Aontú polling at just 4%, it seems clear that resentful Irish voters are instead putting their hope in independents. Often disaffected members of the mainstream parties — like Mattie McGrath and Malachy Steenson — they’re altogether expected to scoop up some 20% of the vote: roughly the same as each of the three main parties. Included in this grouping is the so-called Independent Party. Like Aontú, it blends republican zeal with immigration scepticism, though has bent to Irish conditions by accepting EU membership.

If, moreover, they’re unlikely to make a breakthrough this time round, the independents do have the electoral system on their side. Because of its proportional nature, the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system used in Dáil elections makes it easier for non-affiliated candidates to cause an upset. There are signs, moreover, that sticking it to the mainstream can bear fruit: though it was founded just last year, by a pair of former parliamentarians, the Independent Party already has 24 councillors and a single MEP.

Beyond the electoral calculations, though, the easiest way to measure the potency of Irish populism is through places like Dundrum. What’s happening in County Tipperary, after all, is being shadowed right across the country, with men and women taking the initiative themselves. That’s clearly enough in places like the Finglas area of Dublin, or else Cootehill in County Cavan, both sites of anti-migration protests.

Dundrum is also representative from an ideological standpoint. Perhaps unsurprisingly for a people who long suffered racism from the British, many would-be Irish populists are eager to reject accusations of discrimination themselves. “Skin colour is not the point, and it’s deliberately disingenuous to claim otherwise,” explains one user on a popular political Facebook group, in a striking echo of the “No to Racism” sign at Dundrum. “Talking about ‘white supremacy’ in a country that has suffered as much as Ireland has from ‘white’ people is a particularly sly form of gaslighting.”

And if that hints vividly at how the tragedies of Irish history shape the country’s populism, there are other examples too. Like at Dundrum, for instance, protests and social media posts are replete with references to “plantation” — explicitly linking the resettlement of refugees to the colonisation of Ireland by English and Scottish settlers in the 16th and 17th centuries. The past echoes elsewhere too: that Richard Harris poster at Dundrum references a rant about the Great Famine. Offbeat humour, too, is something shared between the camp at Dundrum and its cousins elsewhere. At one recent anti-migration rally, one attendee dressed up as St. Patrick.

Beyond history or humour, though, the success of Trumpish populism in Ireland might ultimately depend on the man himself. Though a poll earlier this year found Irish voters preferred Biden to win, the success of Trump in confounding expectations yet again shows that apparent stasis can be overcome in unexpected ways.

Then there’s the question of the President-elect’s economic policies. Right now, more than one in every €8 the Irish government makes comes from corporation tax paid by American multinationals. Last year, meanwhile, Ireland exported €54 billion of goods to the US. That’s 2.5 times the value of exports to the UK, even as Ireland’s trade surplus with the US currently stands at a record €35 billion. Trump’s return poses a serious threat to all this: as well as levying tariffs, he plans to cut corporation tax, just as Dublin plans to raise it.

Given Trump’s erratic style, it’s unclear if he’ll actually follow through with his plans. But if he does, he’ll pose huge risks to the economic model underpinning Ireland’s recent prosperity. That, it goes without saying, could be a boon to the incipient populists — at Dundrum and beyond.


David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, will be published in 2025.

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Evan Heneghan
Evan Heneghan
28 days ago

Ireland must be the only country in Europe where we don’t even have an option of a nominally right wing party to vote for. Every one of FG, FF, SF, SDs, PbP, Greens, Labour and yes even Aontú, represent left wing social and economic policies, ranging from left of centre to left of Stalin.

An almost total media blackout of anyone trying to offer a conservative or right wing option just helps perpetuate this status quo and the disconnect between voters and the politicians and NGOs running the country.

I just hope a good Trump presidency moves the Overton window back slightly towards some sanity.

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
28 days ago
Reply to  Evan Heneghan

Ireland must be the only country in Europe where we don’t even have an option of a nominally right wing party
… apart from the UK?

RR RR
RR RR
28 days ago
Reply to  Hugh Bryant

Reform?

Hugh Bryant
Hugh Bryant
28 days ago
Reply to  RR RR

The jury’s out. My own suspicion is that both Farage and Tice would happily sell us all out for a knighthood. But I’d be happy to be proven wrong.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
28 days ago

Ireland fought over 900 years to win freedom. Less than 100 years later the Irish government has enslaved the Irish to whatever the woke lunacy of the day may be.

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
28 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

Don’t forget the EU enslavement their governments seem to cherish on behalf of their citizens.

Brendan Mc Sweeney
Brendan Mc Sweeney
28 days ago
Reply to  Ian Barton

Tedious simplicity

Peadar Laighléis
Peadar Laighléis
28 days ago
Reply to  Ian Barton

The Irish elites have always hid behind something bigger as an excuse to impose their way on the people, be it Britain, the Catholic Church or the EU. The fatal relationship between most of the Irish parties and the US Democrats is something frequently ignored too.

D Walsh
D Walsh
28 days ago
Reply to  Ian Barton

None of Ireland’s problems are caused by the EU

The blame lies with our establishment/ruling class and the foolish ideas they believe

RR RR
RR RR
28 days ago

Same old same old. Anywhere in the Western World.
Everyone who in any way wants to see lower migration is:
a) A White Supremacist.
b) A White Supremacist Apologist.
c) A White Supremacist Acceptable Face – Badenoch as an example.
d) All of the above.
Sinn Fein are sell outs, in the most ironic way ever. They totally bought into the Crap Woke Bollocks. Shown to be not at all bothered about Irish folk.
This election is one too early for the Centrists to be decimated. The next one won’t be.

Peadar Laighléis
Peadar Laighléis
28 days ago

I think this Irish election is not going to be an important one, but the next very well might be. This one comes before the Trump administration takes office – and I believe this is deliberately was the case as I think there would have been altogether a different campaign in the event of a Harris victory. Speaking of Harris, I believe the inadequacies of the home grown Simon Harris is showing up on the campaign. The poll results show Fine Gael on 19% which is a lot worse when you consider the party is in the unenviable position of making up the gaps where 18 of their sitting deputies are stepping down. Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil have some attrition too but not on that scale, and the young inexperienced and uneducated Taoiseach has had a few weeks which were, to put it charitably, lacklustre. Oh, and there was that incident in Kanturk, Co Cork over the weekend with a carer which I am sure had a lot of Fine Gael candidates in marginal seats throw their hats at the screens. Apologies that Simon was ‘tired’ made their election posters with the words “A New Energy” appear very hollow.
What is the case is that populist independents will make gains, but the test is whether they can mount a coherent opposition. Sinn Féin’s failure to do so has been their downfall. The Irish media want to deny the existence of Independent Ireland (not The Independent Party as referred to in the article) even exists, but I suspect they will have to look at a different reality after the election as the new party will outperform some and perhaps all of the various left wing groups and could be the fourth party after Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael (and if Fine Gael does end up third after the other two, it will be so much the worst for their leader). Aontú (which could be seen as an Irish nationalist “Blue Labour”) are doing well in the polls, but they need to concentrate that in areas where they are in with a shot at a seat. I can name two constituencies where they have the advantage of name recognition and a couple of additional TDs will help. The other independents would best consolidate in a grouping involving these two.
The growing wave of populism in both the United States and continental Europe will further fuel the flames. If Trump delivers on his economic commitments, Ireland will feel the adverse effects (and I think this is why this has been such a low key campaign). If the US Democrats haven’t learnt their lesson and the possibility of Vance ’28 looms, I think that the Irish political landscape could look very different. Or let me be mischievous and ask if any British readers believe that the Irish elites will look to London and draw heart from the Right Hon Sir Keir Strarmer? Answers on a post card.
Looking forward to coverage of Ireland in the New York Times, Manchester Guardian et al. over the next few years.

RR RR
RR RR
28 days ago

Starmer is low energy politician, a copper bottomed paid up member of the North London Liberal Elite.
However he as steered Labour (because Tories vacated the ground) back towards having a semblance of civic and cultural pride in Britain, well England because we weren’t allowed to have such in recent decades.
He does at least acknowledge mass scale immigration is no longer a good thing and rowed back on the woke crap. Many of his party members disagree though.
The proof will be if he delivers on improving people’s lives. One thing I am certain of is Reform are going to start taking chunks out of Labour away from their Urban Castles, which themselves ae under attack from the Green Gazans River to the Sea folk.
Ireland need both a Farage and a Tony Benn type to bury the FF/FG/SF centrist crap

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
27 days ago

Simon Harris deliberately held off announcing the date of the election until after Trump’s victory. In October, he told everybody it would happen before the New Year but waited until post-November 5th.

Daniel Lee
Daniel Lee
28 days ago

“somewhere like Dundrum: those 277 migrants are set to be introduced into a community of just 221”
Outnumbered in your own community by government out-placed strangers with completely different cultural standards and practices. What kind of government does this to its own people?

Alex Lekas
Alex Lekas
28 days ago

keen to distinguish anti-migrant fears from straightforward racism.
Is it about race or is it about a culture that is completely alien to Western ways? By the way, Middle Eastern is NOT a race, and if the US Census Bureau is to be trusted, neither is North African. People from both areas are lumped into the bucket of “white.” So come up with a better argument.
Importing people who do not speak your language, know or care about your customs, and have no desire to assimilate will end badly. And when the immigrants outnumber the locals, it’s even worse. One might think that point – the math – would have merited more attention.

Ray Andrews
Ray Andrews
28 days ago
Reply to  Alex Lekas

Indeed, 277 Poles might be almost as disruptive. The only essential difference is that 277 Poles would be less likely to style themselves Victims of Oppression and thus feel entitled to burn the place down if one of them got in trouble with the cops. This kind of thing is surely more than stupidity, there are forces at work that really do want to destroy white civilization.

John Tyler
John Tyler
28 days ago

Why is unhappiness at uncontrolled immigration labelled as “populist”? Such nonsense!

Ray Andrews
Ray Andrews
28 days ago

> Perhaps unsurprisingly for a people who long suffered racism from the British, many would-be Irish populists are eager to reject accusations of discrimination themselves.
But the Irish were persecuted for being Irish … in Ireland. That is not remotely comparable to the Irish preferring not to be colonized by Negroes and Muslims. It is not discrimination to want to remain at home in your own homeland. I have Irish roots but I’ve never been. I hope I can get there before it becomes an Islamic republic.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
27 days ago

Its real best of a bad lot time. Every party pays lip service to the climate nonsense and pushes vaguely socialist policies. Fg ( so called conservative promise free child care and 1000 euro for every baby born ). Every politician absolves themselves of responsibility for migrant centers ( blaming it on civil service/ un responsibility for example ), no party wants to come out and talk about the damage of lockdowns and yes vax cine injuries ( ff leader still boasring about vax cine roll out in true craven globalist fashion ).
Id vote for anyone who wants to abandon climate nonsense and bring electricity price down via fossil fuels/ free market, lower taxes all round ( especially vat and council tax which criple small business ) and health freedoms ( i couldnt go to pub or gym during this dail as didnt want an experimentsl jab ). I will vote though and encourage others who can to vote for indepenend ireland and/or aontu who could steer the fg/ff ship towards a more sensible policy as they would have a mandate to reduce at least carbon taxes . Vote anyway even if thete is no good option

Ian Barton
Ian Barton
27 days ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

I sympathise completely, but I’m not sure how remaining in the EU can help to make progress in any of these areas. Would you vote for a party committed to Leave ?

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
27 days ago
Reply to  Ian Barton

Well they would have to explain how weeave the euro in a way that guarantees good relations with all our neighbours. The only way to do this I can think of would be to move to bitcoin as a currency. That really is the other side of a massive and inevitable soverign debt crises i think. For now id settle for less tax and a bit more freedom.

mike flynn
mike flynn
27 days ago

Contraception and abortion and elitist big govt bring new “troubles ” to Eire. Ironic.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
27 days ago

Mr Swift, you are what would be termed a chancer in Ireland. The slogan “Be a good Yank and go home” has nothing to do with the Great Famine. It refers to John B. Keane’s play, _The Field_ where the lead character warns off an American buyer of the Bull McCabe’s field. The hotelier in Dundrum is American. That explains why the line from _The Field_ is borrowed, nothing else.

Buck Rodgers
Buck Rodgers
27 days ago

Some thoughts:

1. Economy growing at 2%. Why did they massively increase immigration? The U.K. government has claimed that immigration will boost growth; it won’t, but at least they can point to a real problem that needs a solution. Sounds to me like everything was going well in Ireland.

2. Ireland has shown the benefits of low corporation tax. Why raise it?

3. If the Irish cling to grievance narratives about colonialism etc, they’ll hamstring their own efforts to defend their borders.