April 12, 2021 - 10:30am
The gloves are off in the race to become the next chancellor of Germany. On Sunday, the Bavarian Minister-President, Markus Söder, declared that he would like to stand as chancellor candidate for the conservative bloc — “if the CDU were willing to support me”. The curtain is raised for a showdown with fellow conservative Armin Laschet, who also wants the job.
Laschet told the Bild Zeitung this morning that he fully expects to get support from his party. The German media also favour him but his polls have been in free-fall for weeks. His candidacy for the chancellorship would be a huge risk for the German conservatives.
Whether or not Angela Merkel’s CDU will endorse Söder’s candidacy instead is the question. He leads its sister party, the Bavarian CSU, and in federal elections both parties form a Christian-conservative alliance called the Union. In Germany’s post-war history, there have only ever been two CSU chancellor candidates, Joseph Strauß and Edmund Stoiber — both highly controversial, they were put forward because the CDU was struggling internally. Neither succeeded.
However, things may be different this time. Söder is far more popular than his rival Laschet, the leader of the CDU. Advanced as the continuity candidate, the latter has made rather half-hearted promises that things would change after sixteen years of Merkelism. It doesn’t help that the man’s mannerisms and speech are those of a career politician (uninspiring and lacking in new ideas). Most recently, he dug an even deeper hole with his reluctance to implement Angela Merkel’s Covid measures in North Rhine-Westphalia, which he leads as Minister-President. This was not only hugely unpopular with the German public but also earned him a rare rebuke from his boss in Berlin.
Söder, by contrast, has cultivated an image as the jovial Bavarian: personable, down-to-earth, a bit eccentric. He has earned himself a reputation as a straight-talker, who is not afraid to criticise the federal government or the EU, as he did over the recent delays with the vaccine roll-out. But he is also known as a joker, who once appeared in a full Shrek costume — green face and all — at a carnival in Würzburg.
Most importantly, Germans have been impressed with his decisive handling of the Covid crisis in Bavaria. When the public wanted a stricter lockdown, Söder implemented it and challenged his colleagues in the other 15 German states to do the same. Only last week, he announced that he had pre-ordered the Russian Sputnik vaccine to supplement the roll-out in Bavaria once approved by the EU — without consultation with the sluggish bureaucracy in Berlin (and Brussels).
The hesitation to commit to Söder does not stem from concern over public support. The latest survey showed that the CDU/CSU would gain 39% of the vote if they ran with him but only 17% if led by Laschet. It is mind-boggling that this race is still on; it speaks volumes about the CDU’s reluctance to accept a Bavarian candidate. Meanwhile, the Union’s popularity continues to plummet as Söder’s star is rising. The decision on the German chancellor candidacy is expected as early as today. But will the CDU accept that the Bavarian joker is the ace up their sleeve?
Katja Hoyer is a German-British historian and writer. She is the author, most recently, of Beyond the Wall: East Germany, 1949-1990.
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SubscribeRather depends on if the German establishment is willing to move away from the assumptions that marked the Merkel years.
Well it’s more a case of the CDU’s assumptions, isn’t it? And given that most of those assumptions turned out to be false and/or flawed, they would surely be wise to go with Soder.
Merkel was all about the centre ground. The problem is that the middle class progressives have drifted into an American style purity spiral. Merkel has followed and gone further left than the centre. The problem the CDU has is how to move to the right without admitting it was wrong. There is also the issue, similar to the UK, that the majority of the German media share the same assumptions. Stepping outside is a step into the unknown for many German politicians
Sorry,this is an embarrassing eloge on a unscrupulous careerist.
You know nothing about this fellow.
He is eradicating the basic rights of his bavarian compatriots
and the federal rights of state Bavaria on a daily basis.
There is a reason most bavarian people who are not brain dead
call him :CORONA -FÜHRER SÖDOLF
Greetings from Munich,Bavaria
Thank you for responding from Bavaria. It is hard for those of us in the UK to gain a local perspective on such matters.
A German with a sense of humour – this the world must see. He would get my vote, if I had one. Maybe he could down a few Oktoberfest steins with Boris, that could be an entertaining show.
Doesn’t really matter anymore does it?
After the migrant crisis, after Cologne on News Year Eve way back?
You’re a done country, and your implosion will not prevent the coming progressive fascist phase of your malaise to be stayed.
Bound to get ugly. But New Europe needs the Lebensraum, so close the door as you depart eh?
What a load of shite