by Sebastian Giraud
Tuesday, 26
November 2019

What’s going on in Wales?

The hoped-for Tory resurgence in Wales looks to be slipping away
by Sebastian Giraud

Having tightly held the reins of power in Cardiff Bay since the Welsh Assembly’s inception in 1999 — and topped the polls in every UK Parliamentary election since 1945 — it looks like the people of Wales are not yet ready to turn their back on Labour.

Ever since Wales voted to Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum the Tories have been working hard to break Labour’s grip, and up until yesterday it seemed to be going to plan. That is until the ITV Wales/Cardiff University of Welsh poll released last night showed that since the start of the campaign, Welsh Labour have surged ahead to open up a six point lead over the Conservatives.

The poll clearly identifies another trend yet to be fully realised in national surveys — the big two parties since the start of the campaign are edging out the minority parties. Particularly the Brexit Party that came from nowhere to win the European Parliament elections in May only to cede half their support to the two main parties since the start of the campaign.

If this poll is correct, the Tories might yet win Cardiff North, Gower, Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham from Labour. However, longer-shot prospects for the Conservatives such as Delyn, Clwyd South and Bridgend may prove elusive and the super-marginal Leave voting seats held (just) by the Tories in 2017 such as Preseli (Maj: 314) and Aberconwy (Maj: 635) could put the Tories into reverse. A trend that if replicated nationally could deprive Boris Johnson the majority he craves.

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