June 1, 2023 - 7:00am

It is now more than 10 months since Boris Johnson resigned as Prime Minister — and yet he keeps fighting. Though there are six other living ex-PMs, none has caused more trouble than Boris and his band of Tory outlaws.

In the last fortnight alone, we’ve had multiple Boris-related stories — including the farcical WhatsApp saga, attacks on Oliver Dowden, the Johnsons’ plush new home in Oxfordshire and yet another Boris baby. It just never stops.

But, perhaps, for his own good, it ought to. This is not meant to be a menace-laden message of faux-concern. Rather, I’m recognising that, of all our former PMs, Boris is the only one with a realistic chance of regaining the top job. He needs to improve his odds, though.

His number one problem is holding on to his seat. The Privileges Committee is due to report on whether he misled Parliament over Partygate. If they conclude that he did — and recommend a sufficiently harsh punishment — then that could trigger a sequence of events leading to a by-election in his constituency. His chances of surviving such a process are slim.

But even if Johnson swerves that hazard, he’s still got the next general election to get through. Without a major revival in Tory fortunes, his Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency (majority: 7,210) is toast. He could attempt a chicken-run to a safer seat (Henley has been mentioned), but I doubt that the current leadership would allow that.

Still, let’s assume that he’s an MP for somewhere at the start of the next parliament. Most likely the Tories will be out of power and looking for a new leader — which in theory could be his comeback opportunity. Except that, as William Hague found out after the last Tory general election meltdown, it would be a horrible job — a constant struggle to save the party from civil war and bankruptcy.

Luckily for Boris, there’s an alternative path. Rather than trying to fight the verdict of the Privileges Committee, he should accept any criticism. Indeed, he should express his contrition by resigning his seat. Of all the humiliating scenarios that face him, this would be the least worst.

Of course, this would delight Downing Street — yet that too would be to Johnson’s ultimate advantage. The fewer fingerprints he can leave on the next election result — and the recriminations that follow — the better it will be for him.

Out of Parliament, he’d be able to concentrate on his lucrative speech-giving gigs. He could also persuade his wealthier supporters to fund a think tank — perhaps fleshing out the levelling-up agenda he never quite got round to in government. In any case, after two or three years in opposition the party would be desperate for fresh ideas.

Most importantly, Johnson would be free to look for a safe seat. For instance, if a defeated Rishi Sunak decides that life looks sunnier in California, Boris could pick up the reins in Richmond, Yorkshire. Like Michael Portillo in 1999, he’d make his triumphant return to Westminster and angle for the leadership.

Of course, pulling this off would require uncharacteristic discipline. But then that’s just one of things he’ll have to demonstrate before he’s ever trusted again.


Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

peterfranklin_