The war between Israel and Hamas has exacerbated long-running divisions between EU member states. Despite an effort to appear united in condemnation of the shock attack and atrocities committed, the bloc’s response has been a diplomatic shambles.  

A statement from European Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi — nominated for his post by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, one of Europe’s most pro-Israel leaders — that aid for Palestine would be suspended in light of the attack was followed by a backlash from countries with more sympathy towards Palestine. The Commission proceeded to tie itself in knots over the issue, giving the impression that in Brussels the left hand doesn’t know what the right is doing.  ...  Continue reading

A bigger-than-expected win for Robert Fico and his Smer party in Slovakia’s elections this weekend could put a major chink in the armour of Western support for Ukraine. With a vote share of 23%, Fico is set to become prime minister of Slovakia for the third time, thanks to a newly Eurosceptic, anti-Western platform.  

Fico is expected to form a coalition with HLAS, a splinter group from Smer which won 15% of the vote and which will be the kingmaker in any coalition government. A Smer government would also require support from another conservative force, such as the Christian Democratic Movement (7%) or the Slovak National Party (6%). ...  Continue reading

Freedom of movement, a cornerstone of the European Union, is under threat as countries throughout the bloc scramble to tackle illegal migration. After months of unilateral measures and bitter arguments between central European member states, even Germany — a nation which previously took a leading role in welcoming migrants to Europe — is getting in on the act by putting national border security above Schengen area norms. 

Germany will introduce new spot checks on borders with Poland and the Czech Republic in the coming days; cooperation with the Czech authorities was announced after Berlin threatened to unilaterally impose checks “in order to stop smugglers”, but no such co-operation has yet been reached with Poland. Unilateral measures are no longer unusual in the region, though, with various central European states having taken similar steps in recent months.  ...  Continue reading

Poland’s general election on 15 October is seen by many as a battle for the nation’s soul — and right now, it’s anyone’s guess who will emerge victorious. Going head-to-head are the leader of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) Jarosław Kaczyński and the leader of the opposition Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and ex-European Council president. 

As campaigning grows increasingly bitter, Tusk’s past is leaving him open to attack as an alleged German stooge and enemy of Polish sovereignty, as PiS bets on playing up threats to national sovereignty in the run-up to the vote.  ...  Continue reading

Ukraine faces decisive months ahead as key allies gear up for crunch elections. While early presidential campaigning in the US and a looming general election in Poland will grab the international headlines, a snap election in Slovakia on 30 September may prove every bit as consequential. 

With Robert Fico — Slovakia’s former prime minister and one of the West’s most outspoken critics of the Ukrainian war effort — poised to win the vote, a change of government in Bratislava could have a profound effect on EU policymaking. Fico has promised that if his party makes it into government “we will not send a single bullet to Ukraine,” proudly proclaiming that “I allow myself to have a different opinion to that of the United States” on the war.   ...  Continue reading

A new arena of conflict is opening up in Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression. Attacks on Russian vessels by unmanned sea drones threaten to disrupt Moscow’s commercial operations in the Black Sea. Following Russia’s withdrawal from a UN-brokered grain deal, the attacks also risk causing irreparable damage to perceptions of Kyiv’s cause among non-Western powers. 

One attack, on Russian oil tanker Sig off Crimea, demonstrated Kyiv’s new resolve to strike commercial vessels. The Sig and its owner are under US sanctions for transporting fuel to Russian forces in Syria. Meanwhile, Ukraine warned that Russian ports on the Black Sea coast should be considered “war risk” areas, and underlined this threat with an attack on a naval base near the major port city Novorossiysk. An advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has now declared that “everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are valid military targets.”  ...  Continue reading

The relocation of Wagner forces to Belarus following their short-lived mutiny in Russia at the end of June has spooked neighbouring countries such as Poland and the Baltic states. No wonder: Wagner mercenaries have fought in some of the bloodiest battles of the Ukraine war, and as the leader of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party Jarosław Kaczyński put it, they’re hardly in Belarus “for fun”. 

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Monday that the group’s future activities will be carried out “for the greatness of Russia”. But how might Wagner’s presence so close to Nato’s most hawkish member states fit into the Kremlin’s plans, given the group’s deeply ambivalent relationship with authorities in Moscow?   ...  Continue reading

Heads of state and senior ministers will descend on Lithuania’s capital Vilnius this week for a Nato summit heralded as a potential turning point for the alliance. It’s being seen as decisive for Ukraine’s Nato aspirations as debates rage over whether to offer Kyiv a clear timeframe and concrete pledge for membership.  

As has been the case throughout the war, Nato is divided into hawkish countries including Britain and most Eastern European states calling for a clear signal on future Ukrainian membership, and countries such as Germany which stand accused of trying to “essentially block membership”. The Biden administration is somewhere in between, wary of its responsibility to keep up Ukrainian morale through the prospect of Nato membership but rejecting shortcuts to admittance.  ...  Continue reading