When the Israeli airstrikes on Iran started last night, it looked like it was going to be a token effort to save face after nearly a month of increasing threats from Tel Aviv. On the contrary, the initial bombings in Tehran were decapitation strikes targeting senior Islamic Republic officials, while subsequent waves of attacks broadened out to target the Iranian nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.

The commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami, the Iranian military’s Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, his deputy Gholamali Rashid, and half-a-dozen nuclear scientists are all confirmed dead. The uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz, the site which alerted the world to Iran’s nuclear threat back in 2002, has been heavily damaged. Iranian air defences and missiles were devastated by a combination of air assaults and actions on the ground by Mossad, which set up a base near Tehran and smuggled in personnel and precision weapons over many months.

The Fordow uranium-enrichment site, under a mountain in Qom, and the technology and enrichment centres in Isfahan, appear not to have been hit — yet.

The Israeli government has called this an act of “pre-emption”, claiming that Iran was dashing for “the bomb” and had enough fissile material for 15 nuclear devices. The latter part or something like it is certainly true: Iran has been a threshold nuclear power for some time, with the capacity to assemble a bomb should the political decision be taken. Perhaps Israel really does have intelligence that an Iranian breakout was “imminent” (another word being used by Israeli officials). If so, it would behove Israel to make this public as quickly as possible.

Yet it seems more likely that Israel is speaking of its actions as pre-emptive for political purposes. Framing the attack in these terms allows Netanyahu to claim the right to “anticipatory self-defence”, minimising interference and condemnation from the perennially anti-Israel international law establishment.

This does not mean Israel’s actions are illegitimate, even under the nebulous terms of international law. The Islamic Revolution swept to power in 1979 with the intent of dismantling the international system and its conduct, from the seizure of the American Embassy onwards, has reflected that. The clerical regime is publicly pledged to Israel’s destruction and has carried out numerous attacks in pursuit of this goal, including the 7 October massacre that started the current war in Gaza. This is a permanent threat Israel has every right to counter. It just means “preventive”, a more difficult legal-political category, is the more precise term for what is happening now.

There will be protests against what Israel has done, of course, in the region and in Europe. US President Donald Trump has publicly opposed Israel taking military action, and reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly in private not to act. American messaging was rapid and decisive in disavowing any role in Israel’s activities. Netanyahu, in announcing Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, said it will “continue for as many days as it takes”, and Israeli military officials briefed that “at the end of the operation, there will be no nuclear threat”. It remains to be seen if the US will make any moves to stop Israel making good on this.

The hysterics about “World War Three” are unwarranted: it has been obvious for many years that Israel has infiltrated Iran extensively and virtually paralysed its foreign terrorism infrastructure. It is not impossible Iran gets lucky in its promised retaliation, but the early signs conform to the ineffectual and sometimes humiliating pattern of Iran’s responses over the last two decades.

The worst outcome to the Iranian nuclear stand-off was always an Israeli strike that fails to finish the job, since Iran likely would finally take the political decision to assemble a bomb in the aftermath of such an event. A functioning Iranian nuclear programme is a threat to global security, and despite the inevitable public condemnation of Israel from many world leaders, most know this to be true.