During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump set three top priorities for his second term. He would be a peacemaker, ending ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza; he would solve US economic woes and bring down consumer prices for average Americans; and he would secure the country’s borders by restricting immigration and accelerating deportations.

Less than 150 days after returning to the White House, Israel’s preventative strikes on Iran have put this agenda at risk. Now presiding over a third conflict in which the United States is an indirect participant, Trump’s promises of peace seem further away than ever. Worse, the still-escalating war could put pressure on his domestic initiatives, diverting attention and resources from border security and immigration enforcement, and scuttling his efforts to lower inflation. For Trump, the next days and weeks will be critical. He can still salvage his second-term promises, but only with a forceful push to quickly end hostilities and reopen diplomacy with Tehran.

The outbreak of a new war in the Middle East and the collapse of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran is a major blow to Trump’s desired role as a peace broker. After failing to make significant progress towards ending the wars in Ukraine or Gaza, Trump’s oft-repeated refrain that “this war wouldn’t have started if I were president” now rings less true. Although he counselled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against a military strike on Iran, he ultimately acquiesced to Israel’s unilateral action.

Trump has called for peace on his Truth Social platform, asserting on Sunday that “Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal.” But as in Ukraine and Gaza, he does not seem to have a plan for persuading the two sides to stop their strikes — or, for that matter, the patience to stick with what will be a complicated road back to regional stability. The derailment of American-Iranian negotiations risks upsetting Trump’s other efforts at ending the war. Already sceptical of Washington’s intentions, Russia now has even more reason to question American commitment to peace and fewer incentives to continue to engage.

The new war in the Middle East also puts Trump’s domestic promises on the rocks. Even if the US manages to stay mostly on the sidelines, a conflict that continues for weeks or months will absorb significant American military and diplomatic resources. If the US succumbs to Israeli pressure and becomes a direct participant in the war, the resource requirements would skyrocket, placing real pressure on budgets and forcing cuts to spending on other priority Trump initiatives including border security. Homeland Security officials have already requested additional funding to continue and expand their operations, but the demands of a war in the Middle East would likely make this difficult. Trump therefore has a choice to make: engage in a costly conflict with Iran, or pursue the popular immigration agenda that has been his calling card for a decade.

A war in the Middle East — even with minimal US involvement — could also threaten Trump’s promise to rapidly reduce US consumer prices. Almost as soon as Israel began its military operation, the price of oil jumped 10%. Now, with the country expanding its attacks to Iran’s oil infrastructure and Tehran threatening to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prices are likely to rise further, thwarting any plan Trump has to deflate consumer costs. Politically, this could be the most damaging reverberation from the Israel-Iran conflict, as it will hit Trump’s supporters where it matters most: their pockets.

The US President still has a chance to achieve the domestic priorities he set for his second term, but he will need to urgently change course. Trump must firmly and finally distance the United States from Israel’s campaign and pressure Netanyahu to end his war, if necessary by reducing US support and curtailing future military aid. This would be a sharp break from America’s past, but it is essential if Trump hopes to put the national interest first once again. He will then need to cajole Iran back into talks with the US over its nuclear programme, likely through immediate sanctions relief or other sweeteners. Enlisting the aid of other US partners in the region could also help sway a distrustful Iranian regime.

A new Middle Eastern war that blocks Trump’s domestic agenda will leave him looking more like the predecessors he has criticised than the revolutionary figure of his own conception. Not only his second term, but his entire political legacy could be on the line if supporters come to see his “America First” mantra as hollow. For Trump, the stakes of the next days and weeks could not be higher.

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Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.

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