In the early hours of this morning, Donald Trump announced that the United States had attacked three key nuclear sites in Iran.

Natanz, Iran’s primary uranium-enrichment facility, and the complex at Isfahan, where research for the nuclear weapons programme is conducted and weapons-grade fuel is stored, were struck with 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from naval vessels. Meanwhile, a B-2 bomber dropped two “bunker busters” on Natanz. Fordow, the critical Iranian enrichment facility, located deep under a mountain near Qom, was hit with a dozen bunker busters, according to US officials (initial reports said six). At the White House press conference following the strikes, Trump said all the sites had been “obliterated”. It will take some time to know if this is true.

When Israel began its military campaign in Iran 10 days ago, Natanz was one of the first targets, and it was confirmed that power had been cut to the facility and that the 15,000 centrifuges there had been “severely damaged if not destroyed altogether”. After last night’s US attack, it does not seem likely that much functionality remains at Natanz. Isfahan, as an above-ground site, had little hope of surviving a serious American attempt to destroy it, and the complex had already been seriously damaged by Israel.

Fordow was always the big question, and remains so. An Iranian official told Reuters that all of the enriched uranium at Fordow had been removed before the US attack. There has certainly been movement at the site in recent days. As Iran’s Foreign Minister had to effectively ask permission to fly abroad this week because Israel controls Iranian airspace, the odds are that Israel and the US know what Iran was able to do at Fordow. Any removal of nuclear material could well be a factor in there being no signs of radiological leaks after these strikes.

The main issue, though, is the condition of the Fordow facility itself. Nuclear stockpiles and equipment are no use without a facility in which to operate. The initial satellite pictures show that the US bunker busters penetrated the site, with evidence of a cave-in. The damage appears extensive and some Israeli officials are confident Fordow has been completely destroyed.

Trump was reluctant to carry out this action, and reportedly tried to minimise the fallout by communicating to the Iranian leadership in advance that the strikes were a one-off, strictly limited to the nuclear weapons programme and with no intention to threaten the regime itself. This did not stop the Iranians vowing “everlasting consequences”, but perhaps what moved the US President to commit to strikes was the realisation that there is nothing the Islamic Republic can actually do.

Israel has thoroughly infiltrated Iran, causing the suppression of air defences in the first hours of this campaign. It has killed swathes of Tehran’s senior leadership and struck nuclear facilities, the missile programme, and even energy infrastructure. Israel crippled Iran’s ability to carry out foreign terrorism years ago, reducing the country’s response to sporadic and increasingly ineffective missile barrages.

The Islamic regime governing Iran has prospered because of its enemies’ timidity, which has been justified by Tehran being on the threshold of nuclear weapons. Israel’s actions over the past two years — in devastating Iranian outposts around the region and then taking the war to the central node in Tehran — have shaken this paradigm. Whether the American strikes have completely disarmed Iran or not, Trump has provided the opportunity to discard it altogether. The weakness of the Islamic Republic has been exposed and a precedent set. If there are future negotiations with Iran, all sides now know the West has cards to play which it has denied itself for too long.