One might not easily associate Donald Trump with Otto von Bismarck. Yet like the Iron Chancellor, who was famous for embracing the realpolitik of “blood and steel” in forging the German Empire, Trump has found his own formula — based largely on America’s tech savvy and energy abundance — to intimidate enemies and control friends.

The US President last night announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire after a 12-day war, though Israel has this morning accused Tehran of immediately violating the order. As the conflict threatens to restart already, energy policy could prove a critical determining factor.

Suggestions from the Iranian government that it would close the pivotal Strait of Hormuz clearly haven’t deterred Washington. Threats to shut down oil production would previously have terrified an America which just two decades ago was the world’s largest importer of oil. Now, the picture is very different. Largely thanks to fracking, America is the number-one producer of oil and gas globally, most of it produced in Trump-friendly states such as Texas. The Permian basin, located in the arid wastes of the western reaches of the Lone Star State, now constitutes the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, and is soon expected to be responsible for half of all US output. Other areas such as Pennsylvania, with its expansive fracking economy, also seem likely to benefit.

Across the Atlantic, much of Europe’s declining influence stems from its ruinous embrace of Net Zero policies. Britain, once an energy power, has dropped its previously substantial fossil fuel production by two-thirds since the turn of the century — all while consumption has only fallen by a third. The country increasingly depends on imports from outside the European Union, even as an estimated 25 billion barrels remain untapped in the North Sea.

Other European countries, notably Germany, suffer from the same dilemma, as high prices have undermined once-potent industrial economies. Much of the continent has simply shifted its dependence from Russian oil and gas to Gulf producers such as Qatar, a country which has consistently bankrolled Islamist radicalism. In contrast, the only state in contiguous America which imports most of its crude oil energy from foreign countries is hyper-liberal California.

As Europe appears resigned to the sidelines of the Middle East conflict, another significant advantage held by Trump is in military technology and cutting-edge defence systems. This includes everything from stealth technology, as shown by the success of Saturday’s B-2 attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, to developing artificial intelligence-based systems from the likes of Anduril and Palantir.

Most critical in the long term may be dominance in space. Even as Nasa has lost its allure, new-generation companies including Space X have kept the US ahead when it comes to developing new military platforms. SpaceX’s reusable Starships, by some accounts, could allow American forces to deploy anywhere on Earth within an hour.

All this technological and resource wealth provides Trump with the kind of power which Navy and Empire once gave Britain at its height, or the German industrial and military prowess that Bismarck used to drive his nation to the peak of European power.

Early violations of last night’s ceasefire suggest Trump may not be the brilliant strategist he thinks he is. Yet he also rules a country which, under an aggressive leader, can readily impose its will. As the Iron Chancellor himself once remarked: “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.”

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Joel Kotkin is a Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and a Senior Research Fellow at the Civitas Institute, the University of Texas at Austin.

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