Over 70% of Western Europeans think America isn’t a reliable guarantor of European security, according to a new survey. With the Nato summit in the Hague ending today, polling by the Eurasia Group has revealed a crisis of confidence in the Western security apparatus. This comes as Donald Trump has this week cast doubt on his commitment to the alliance’s Article 5 — the commitment to mutual defence when one member is attacked — telling journalists on Air Force One that “it depends on your definition”. Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte has today insisted that Trump is on board with the agreement, something which the US President has himself now affirmed.

The Eurasia Group survey, which was conducted earlier this month before the summit, reveals that 71% of people across Germany, France, and the United Kingdom think the US will not be a “reliable guarantor of European security over the next decade”. Among Germans, 76% had little faith in the role of Nato’s largest power in protecting continental security, while the figure was slightly lower at 69% for the UK. Overall, scepticism around America’s commitment to European defence has greatly increased since the same question was asked last year. Then, only 46% of Europeans saw America as an unreliable partner.

European powers have lost faith in American support

Proportion of European populations who consider the US an unreliable security guarantor (%)

Nevertheless, Americans themselves are still confident about their role in Europe, with 69% of those surveyed believing the country is a reliable security partner. However, this was a 7% decrease on the year before.

The survey also found that majorities in both the UK and Germany believe the United States would not come to their defence if they were attacked. Among the Germans surveyed, 58% thought that America would not abide by its Article 5 obligations, while the figure was just over 50% in Britain. French opinion was only slightly more positive, with 53% of respondents believing American protection would hold firm.

Western European confidence in US support plummets in last year

How far do Western Europeans consider the US a reliable security guarantor?

Since his return to office, Trump’s aggressive rhetoric on Nato, Ukraine and tariffs has shaken Europeans’ confidence in the foundations of the Atlantic alliance. Vice President JD Vance has drawn the ire of European policymakers for his remarks at the Munich Security Conference in February, where he told attendees that “they should focus on the threat from within”. That is, he explained, mass immigration and restrictions on freedom of speech rather than external geopolitical concerns.

All the countries polled still believe Nato benefits them. However, the Trump administration’s push to increase defence spending to 5% of each alliance member’s GDP has not been easy. While the British Government has agreed to the plans, it will only meet the new target by 2035 and the promise remains unfunded. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez’s government continues to resist Nato calls to increase direct military spending to 3.5% of GDP. This afternoon at the summit, Trump threatened to double tariffs on Spanish goods as punishment and added that he thinks “it’s terrible what Spain has done”.

While European perceptions of Trump’s commitment to European defence may be at a low ebb, Rutte is still trying to secure the US President’s support. In texts shared online by Trump last night, the former Dutch prime minister said the US President was headed for another “Big Success”. Rutte concluded his appeal by promising that “Europe is going to pay in a BIG way”.

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Jack Davey is a freelance writer. He writes on Substack.

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