Interpersonal drama always makes for good entertainment, but the two most consequential moments in Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s prolonged breakup had nothing to do with this week’s petty squabbling over Jeffrey Epstein or NASA.

The first was Musk’s attempt to swing a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election in April by pumping millions of dollars into what would normally be a sleepy race. The billionaire then declared the “entire destiny of humanity” was on the ballot in the election, and held a splashy rally in Green Bay. Not only did the liberal candidate win, but Musk’s efforts ended up mobilising Democrats while doing little to motivate Republicans’ new coalition. “Only Trump himself truly brings out the working class”, a well-placed GOP source told me at the time.

It’s hard to overemphasise how pivotal that moment was. Musk, and eager Republicans, saw Wisconsin as a proving ground. If the world’s richest man could replicate his pivotal Pennsylvania efforts in the 2024 general election in down-ballot races, he could supercharge the GOP and secure his position atop the political food chain. It never came to pass.

So much became clear when Musk said on an April Tesla investors call that he’d be stepping back from DOGE to focus on the car company. Less than a month later, the billionaire told attendees of an economic conference he was also stepping back from election donations. “If I see a reason to do political spending in the future, I will do it”, Musk said, adding, “I do not currently see a reason”.

That was the second critical point in Trump and Musk’s breakup. A divorce between the two was always possible, if not probable, but what I didn’t expect was the financial glue dissolving. This is what made it easier for Musk to leave Washington, then instigate the breakup by publicly slamming Trump’s signature “Big, Beautiful Bill” more aggressively than he ever attacked the tariffs.

For what it’s worth, Musk is of course right that “big” bills are never “beautiful”. He’s also right that Republicans have long lacked the moral courage to follow through on their campaign promises to fix America’s fiscal trajectory. And yes, the “Big, Beautiful Bill” could be improved. Senators like Ron Johnson are currently in talks with GOP leadership to do just that — trying to ensure the bill’s benefits outweigh its political and ideological costs. They’ll likely reach a deal, not because it will fix the debt crisis, but because in a Congress this narrowly divided, the most lawmakers can hope for is to avoid making things worse. That’s the quiet but urgent mission Johnson and others are now pursuing on Capitol Hill.

For the MAGA base, the dynamic now pits Trump against a capricious billionaire oligarch. And nationally Musk is less popular than Trump. That means it will be easier for congressional Republicans to vote for the BBB, which will make it easier for leadership to get a deal.

From the perspective of many elected Republicans who never asked Trump to bring Musk formally into the government, they spent the last six months taking arrows for Musk while he danced on stage with a chainsaw, blundered into unforced errors like disruptions to PEPFAR and veteran benefits, and utterly failed to deliver on the promises he made. The $1–2 trillion in spending cuts Musk promised were supposed to help solve the BBB’s math problem by offsetting projected revenue losses from tax cuts, thereby staving off further increases to the debt. Instead, it all blew up on their watch.

It’s absolutely true that Republicans, on the other hand, made a corrupt bargain for Musk’s cash and for his willingness to play Bad Cop. He gave them money, they gave him power. They’re as responsible for the fiscal crisis as the Democrats. But it’s hard to take Musk seriously as a principled warrior for fiscal responsibility. He comes across now as another naive billionaire who underestimated the obstacles to reform, failed to clear them, and is lashing out at the people who put up with his antics for the last six months — who also have to negotiate in the real world with tiny margins in Congress.

In the end, both Musk and his new enemies learned that the billionaire’s money and influence didn’t amount to a Midas touch. When it became clear he couldn’t buy the outcome he wanted, Musk said he’d stop giving and the relationship imploded. This feud has always been more about power than principle, a fact that will be confirmed yet again if Trump and Musk decide to reconcile.

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Emily Jashinsky is UnHerd‘s Washington correspondent.

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