Britain and France are reportedly close to signing a new migration agreement, a “one-in, one-out” deportation deal aimed at stemming small-boat crossings. The arrangement would see each migrant deported from Britain exchanged for an individual in France who has a legal right to reside in the UK, typically those with family reunification claims.

The pilot scheme being negotiated by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron is intended to undermine the business model of people-smuggling gangs by reinforcing the idea that illegal crossings will not lead to permanent settlement. The Government hopes that the prospect of swift return to France will deter would-be migrants from attempting the dangerous journey.

This deal comes in the wake of rising Channel crossing numbers, which have already exceeded those recorded at this point in each of the past three years and which are now widely expected to surpass 50,000 for the first time in a single year. It also follows a broader £480 million UK commitment to French border enforcement signed in 2023 by Rishi Sunak’s government — as well as a series of deals under previous prime ministers which sent funds to France, only to see the people-smuggling trade accelerate.

Labour has backed itself into a corner on Channel migration, and this latest deal is a symptom of its dysfunction. This is a problem the party would simply rather not have, and it is therefore caught in a trap of tackling the problem as a systemic criminal one, the result only of the actions of criminal gangs, rather than one which gives any agency to the migrants themselves. That’s before we come to the blame held by the Government for continuing conditions that are such a strong pull factor for migrants. And, by scrapping the Rwanda scheme last year, Labour stripped itself of a credible deterrent which was having measurable effects in redirecting migration flows.

This new deal is little more than a headline, a technocratic reform that won’t tackle the structural factors driving high migration. Instead, it is designed merely to sound as close to Nigel Farage’s “Net Zero” immigration commitment as possible.

Given that the numerous deals already struck with French authorities to stem the flows across the Channel have come at a high financial cost and delivered little impact, it is unclear whether we should be most concerned about the sheer cost of a prospective deal or the thin likelihood of its success. Huge questions remain. How high will France set the criteria for returns? What are the criteria for returns to the UK? What is the size of the French pool of potential returns? Will this result in Britain taking more migrants than it currently does? Given Labour’s desperation for a good headline and confused approach to immigration, nothing is too ill-conceived to be off the table.

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Tom Jones writes at The Potemkin Village Idiot.

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