Israel is a no-win issue for Starmer

Last week, Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that Labour would be suspending its trade talks with Israel. But if he thought this tough stance would win him favours from MPs who have criticised the Israeli government’s actions in Gaza, including the blockade of aid and the military campaign against Hamas during which many thousands of civilians have also died, Lammy was mistaken.

In the debate, the word “genocide” was used at least 21 times by 14 different MPs representing Labour, the Greens, the Conservatives, and the SNP, as well as several independents. Notably, the Foreign Secretary studiously avoided using the word. But when Lammy was challenged by the SNP MP Brendan O’Hara on why the British Government’s position, as expressed to the High Court, was that “no genocide has occurred or is occurring”, all the Foreign Secretary could say was: “I answered that question earlier.” It is not possible to find where in the debate he did so.

This exchange sums up the problems for the Labour Party over Israel’s action in Gaza. Even as it takes tougher stances against Israel, there is little evidence that there is a political payoff for doing so. Pro-Israel groups within the party condemned the Government for suspending the trade talks, while anti-Israel activists and the wider British Muslim electorate are by no means placated.

It is worth pointing out that Labour has taken increasingly robust lines against the Israeli government since last year’s general election. Straight after the election the Government announced it would restore funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the organisation’s key aid body in Palestine. In September, the Government then suspended a variety of arms exports licences. In November, Lammy said he would comply with an arrest warrant from the International Court of Justice for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It is expected that the Government will also extend sanctions to a range of Israeli ministers and politicians.

But, in the eyes of voters motivated about Gaza, the “original sin” may not be easily forgiven. After the murders of innocent Israeli civilians on 7 October 2023, Labour took a strong line supporting Israel’s response, even to the point where Keir Starmer said that Israel was entitled to switch off power and water into Gaza. Although he backed away from that comment, it was emblematic of Labour’s staunch support for the Jewish state.

This conflict has been hurting Labour’s standing across the country. At the general election, Labour lost four historically safe seats to independent candidates who campaigned on pro-Palestine platforms, particularly in constituencies with significant Muslim populations. These losses were largely attributed to dissatisfaction among Muslim voters regarding Labour’s stance on the conflict. Meanwhile, other Labour MPs only just held onto their seats. In Bradford West, the most heavily Muslim constituency in Britain, Labour MP Naz Shah’s majority shrank from 27,019 to just 707. She almost certainly would have lost had there been just one independent challenger rather than three, who split the vote. The biggest prize would have been the Health Secretary and likely future leadership candidate, Wes Streeting, who just held his seat by 528 votes.

This year’s local elections mostly featured rural English councils that do not have sizeable Muslim populations. But in the few seats which did have strong Muslim presence, places like Burnley and Preston in Lancashire, the pattern was repeated. For example, Labour’s vote in Preston Central dropped 37 percentage points. The winning candidate, Yousuf Motala, explained that he had left the Labour Party over “Keir Starmer’s stance to collectively punish the Palestinians”.

The question for Labour is whether it is too little, too late to control the damage. It is difficult to know what Starmer could do or say to reverse perceptions from these voters that he was morally complicit in the “genocide”, especially through many of his comments as Leader of the Opposition.

Yet the pressure is likely to mount. Jeremy Corbyn, whom Starmer unwisely ejected from the Labour Party last year, is on manoeuvres. He has reportedly said of a potential new party formed from the pro-Gaza independent alliance in Parliament: “This whole cause is coming together so that by next year’s local elections — long before that I hope — we’re going to have something in place that is very clear and everyone will want to be part of and support.”

An organised, well-funded targeted effort, focused on mobilising Muslim voters in particular, could see more council seats fall in the coming years. It could even be a key ingredient in Labour losing the London mayoralty in 2028. As such, the pressure may cause Labour to take an increasingly hostile line against Israel. But, in many ways, Starmer may already be irredeemably damaged goods for a section of the electorate who care passionately about this issue. There is little the PM can now do.

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