A few weeks ago, Israel’s military campaigns seemed to have run out of road. With no end in sight to the carnage in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared sidelined by Donald Trump, and it looked as though he would not be able to achieve his long-planned strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The clerical regime in Tehran, though wounded and humiliated by Israeli attacks and the evisceration of its proxies, looked set to be able to continue to enrich uranium and eventually create its own nuclear weapons.

Following Saturday’s US strikes, Iran’s nuclear facilities have suffered a setback, though newly-leaked intelligence reports suggest the sites have not been totally destroyed. America also showed it can strike Iran at will without encountering significant resistance. No Israeli pilots were killed in the 12-day war and while 28 Israeli civilians were killed by Iranian missiles, this figure was far lower than the most optimistic analysis would have predicted even two weeks ago.

Had the war continued, with increasing casualty numbers and the shocking sight of Israeli residential blocks turned to rubble, then opposition to Netanyahu would once again have risen. But for now, following crushing victories over Hezbollah and the apparent neutralisation of Iran, Bibi once again reigns supreme.

The decision to strike Iran immediately divided the anti-Netanyahu opposition in Israel. There were those who would have challenged it no matter who ordered it, and those who only opposed it because it was done by Bibi, but prominent moderates and liberals such as Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid were all outspoken in their support for the war.

In a statement on Tuesday, Lapid – leader of the Yesh Atid party and one of the most likely successors to Netanyahu as PM – called Operation Rising Lion “one of the most glorious operations in the history of warfare”, praising both the security forces and the government. This praise has made it harder for opponents to paint Netanyahu as illegitimate, corrupt, and incompetent — even if all of those things may still be true.

Bibi’s recent actions suggest he is getting into campaign mode. The Israeli Prime Minister has resumed giving media interviews, albeit to friendly journalists, and has notably appeared out and about at missile impact sights, something he’d avoided in recent months given the risk of heckling, abuse or worse.

Yet Netanyahu still appears not to have a plan for Gaza, beyond yet more destruction. His leadership has been decisively tainted for many Israelis; though he may be able to win another election, he will continue to divide the country. His latest military achievements have only given him the slightest of bumps in the polls.

In his statement, Lapid also stressed the urgency of “turn[ing] the military achievement into a diplomatic one: to demand and obtain an agreement that guarantees Iran will never be nuclear and will dismantle its missile program; to bring the hostages home and end the war in Gaza; to set Israel on a new path”.

Returning the hostages and ending the war in Gaza is one area where Bibi has not had the same level of success as elsewhere. Now, with Iran pacified and the apparent support of Trump, the Israeli PM could ramp up attempts to clear out northern Gaza and annex the West Bank.

However, though it’s near-impossible to predict Trump’s next move, the US President will doubtless want whatever most quickly paves the way for peace in the region. Any peace plan should be focused on the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as well as a more general path towards the cessation of hostilities in Palestine.

Trump may have required some concession from Bibi on Gaza and the Palestinian situation as the price of striking the Iranian nuclear facilities. If this is the case, then it will cost Bibi support on the Right. Either way, with the fires of the latest conflagration dimming, it seems likely that Israel’s internal fissures will erupt once again.

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David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

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