Is it likely that the Trump administration will deploy US military ground forces to Iran before this crisis is concluded? No. Is it possible American troops will be deployed in ground combat operations? Absolutely.

Following US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, Vice President JD Vance yesterday told NBC News that the administration had “no interest in a protracted conflict, we have no interest in boots on the ground”, adding that he had “no fear” of escalation (the exact opposite of what he said when Iran was firing ballistic missiles into Israel last April). Both Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio used their Sunday talk show appearances to draw a line under the air strikes. Trump, they said, would view the matter closed if Iran does not retaliate against American interests.

But that caveat cuts to the first big problem here: namely, that Iran is likely to engage in some form of retaliation against US interests. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has just suffered the most humiliating of the many blows which he and his Lebanese Hezbollah partners have received over the past 12 months. He will view these US strikes as a mortal challenge to the very credibility of the Islamic revolution, but what form of retaliation will he choose?

In Britain, Government minister Jonathan Reynolds has warned that Iranian-backed terrorism is on the rise in Europe, echoing comments made by MI5 Secretary-General Ken McCallum last year. Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly threatened to activate sleeper cells inside America. If Tehran’s proxies were to attack US citizens or embassy guards, any American response would have to be swift and decisive. Even if he wants to cool tensions, Trump’s strongman persona affords him scant wiggle room if he’s backed into a corner. Considering the immense psychological pressure that Iranian hardliners are now under, their risk appetite may well consume any logical cost-benefit analysis.

That takes us to the boots on the ground consideration. The White House is keen to cool supporters’ fears that Trump has abandoned his “America First” foreign policy agenda of avoiding foreign wars. Unfortunately for them, that desperation cannot excuse abandonment of basic military realities. And if Iran starts mining the Strait of Hormuz, or blowing up Americans around the world, or firing ballistic missiles into embassies, any effective American effort to restore deterrence and protect national interests will demand action that goes way beyond what we saw on Saturday.

If Iran does attempt to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, for example, the ensuing multi-day US military campaign will be a de facto “boots on the ground” reality. It will also expend air defence munitions that are already far too few to deal with the legions of Chinese ballistic missiles that will face the US Navy in any prospective war over Taiwan.

These credible hypotheticals offer the linchpin of why the Trump administration’s “no boots on the ground” talking point is so thin. If Iran accelerates its construction of biological or chemical weapons, only the US military would be sufficiently well-positioned to launch long-range ground force raids into the country with air support and other force measures required to address the urgent threat.

The credible threat of attacks from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could push the Pentagon to actively recommend at least special operations raids inside Iran, similar to those carried out in Syria to generate intelligence against Isis and in Afghanistan to generate intelligence against al-Qaeda. CIA paramilitary forces can do some of this work — and perhaps are already doing so. But a scaled confrontation would require additional forces from the US special operations community. Trump could always refuse to order those actions, but if Iran were seen to seize the initiative, political momentum might quickly swing against the US President. Rhetoric about “no boots on the ground” is easy today, but may not remain so if this crisis continues to boil.

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Tom Rogan is a national security writer at the Washington Examiner

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