When Joe Biden announced yesterday that he was not running for re-election, he knocked over the chessboard of American politics, and now the game is changed for Donald Trump’s third bid for the presidency.

Like many presidential challengers, Trump designed his campaign as a referendum on the incumbent with a blistering focus on inflation, crime, the breakdown on the border, and crises abroad. While both Trump and Biden have high disapproval ratings, the GOP nominee hoped to draw out disengaged voters and the “double haters” who disapproved of both men.

In making this case, Trump had a singular advantage. He had actually been president before, and polls even revealed a kind of “Trump nostalgia”, as voters favourably compared his record on the economy with Biden’s. The contrast between Trump’s considerable vigour and Biden’s moments of verbal confusion only underlined the former man’s message that he was willing to take strong, decisive action to address the frustrations of the electorate. While Trump would barnstorm the country, Biden would spend day after day in his Rehoboth Beach retreat.

In dropping out, Biden upended this strategy. Whoever it ends up being, the next Democratic nominee will almost certainly be many years younger than the President — and Trump. A strategy built on appealing to “double haters” might fizzle out if Trump’s opponent does not have negatives that are as firmly entrenched as Biden’s. Though Trump’s approval rating has climbed somewhat since the end of his presidency, a majority of voters still disapprove of him according to RCP polling averages.

This changed political landscape could provide opportunities as well as risks for Trump’s campaign. The effort against Biden plays into Trump’s populist diagnosis of American politics: after all, the coordinated Democratic and media elite strong-armed a sitting president into ending his reelection bid. Trump’s team has eagerly claimed that Biden’s decision to stand down offers a fundamental vindication of Trump’s critique of his rival’s presidency: that he cannot handle the rigours of the Oval Office.

The asymmetry between the two major American political parties is unprecedented in the living memory of most voters: Republicans have been unified behind a presidential candidate for months, while Democrats need to reorient a political dreadnought — a presidential campaign — in just over 100 days. That structural difference may also work to Republican advantage — though, if your standard-bearer was as unpopular as Biden, political drama might be more appealing than staying the course.

In all these calculations, Biden’s replacement is perhaps the most crucial variable. Kamala Harris has already collected a growing list of endorsements from leading Democrats, including Biden himself. While she would be able to take on a more vigorous campaign schedule than the President, she also would have a harder time separating herself from his record. Likewise, Harris ran further to the Left in the 2020 cycle and might have a hard time appealing to voters in the middle. The fact that she had to drop out before primary voting even started is not the most auspicious sign for her current bid.

Nevertheless, several polls indicate that Harris might be able to run slightly ahead of Biden in some swing states. Other polls have found that pairing her with a Rustbelt vice-presidential candidate, such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, could make some of those states more competitive. If Shapiro, Whitmer or some other Democrat is able to supplant Harris, that could make it even easier for the nominee to distance himself or herself from Biden.

Trump has often relied upon the unpopularity of his opponents — Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden in 2024 — to win over dissatisfied voters. With Biden’s withdrawal, that strategy could be at risk if the Democrats can run a ticket with inoffensive, or even impressive, candidates. In a reset general election, Trump’s campaign will have to think hard about how to win over swing voters anxious about growing political turmoil.

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Fred Bauer is a writer from New England.

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