Team Biden’s relentless optimism about November is becoming less believable by the day. Donald Trump now holds a commanding lead against the White House incumbent, according to new analysis from the Economist. The report shows Biden trailing in all six swing states; and of those states, the two in which he’s performing best have seen Democrats underperform compared to polling predictions for the past two elections. The odds of Biden winning currently stand at 34% — so it’s likelier than being struck by lightning, but less probable than an 81-year-old dying in the next half-decade.

Add to this a new report in a major paper questioning the President’s mental competence, not to mention a string of felony convictions for his son, and the needle is unlikely to move in his direction. Yet the White House remains optimistic in public, downplaying concerns as partisan attacks. Biden 2024: hope or cope?