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The fall of Bakhmut has major implications for Ukraine
There are fears that Russian troops will make further territorial gains
At noon Ukrainian time yesterday, and exactly one year since Russia captured the coastal city of Mariupol, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared victory in the battle for Bakhmut in a boastful video statement. Kyiv has denied the claim, but most signs indicate that the city is now under Russian occupation. This is a significant, though costly, political and military win for the Kremlin, prevailing in the most intense conventional battle in recent European history. It is also a propaganda victory for the infamous Wagner Group, as the parastate organisation spearheaded a months-long campaign against a large, capable, and determined Ukrainian resistance.
Prigozhin stated that his Wagner Group fighters will be rotating out on May 25 and handing responsibilities for defending the city over to the Russian Ministry of Defence, since his personnel need to rest and refit after the gruelling 224-day battle. He proceeded to note that “when our country, our people, our families need us again, we will come back and defend our people, if necessary.” Notably, Prigozhin thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin, General Surovikin and General Mezentsev, while taking parting shots at Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
Over the next few days, it is likely that Russian forces will push to establish a secure buffer zone around Bakhmut, just as they did after taking Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last year. There are already reports that neighbouring Khromove is in the crosshairs and that Russian forces have their eyes on Ivanivske. In congratulating Wagner, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, encouraged continued advances, saying, “we need to go further and at the same time rebuild the settlements of the DPR.” Dmitry Polyanskiy, First Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia, similarly tweeted about how his country’s military will take “many more” Ukrainian cities in the future.
The fall of Bakhmut could have considerable implications for the front given the interconnected nature of Ukraine’s current line of defence, with the next one being more open. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in spite of pressure from allies to withdraw from Bakhmut months ago, warned in March that Russian troops would have “open road” to advance to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk if the city were taken. Capturing Bakhmut was also a prerequisite for Russia’s campaign to take the Donbas — one of the chief objectives put forth at the onset of the invasion. Moreover, freed up Russian capacity may be used to bolster offensive pressure in other areas such as Avdiivka and Siversk.
Still, the news is not all bad for Ukraine given recent local operations that have eaten into Russia’s flanks either side of Bakhmut. Kyiv also says it is preparing a large counter-offensive possibly designed to cut into Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, and perhaps to try and make gains in other directions. What’s more, given Ukraine’s proven ability to roll back Russian occupied territory, it’s certainly conceivable that there could be a second battle for Bakhmut. This could be during the coming offensive, or further down the line.
I found it odd that when Wagner announced this and AP carried it, it took an hour for the BBC to provide a take on it. The BBC news production team were paralysed waiting for an editorial decision.
Now, Wagner could be overstating their success. So it would be reasonable and healthy to caveat any reports with “Wagner claim”. There wasn’t a similar reticence when Wagner’s leader made other claims about, say, the Russian Defence Minister.
What this tiny irrelevance shows is that there is at least some massaging of the news. This means none of us really know anything of what’s going on. I remember a time when Western journalists travelled to the front lines – with or without permission – and provided immediate reporting of events. It was a cultural strength: the truth might sometimes be hard, but suspicion and distrust is far worse. Today almost all news reporting about Ukraine is gleaned from press releases from the combatents and unverified blogs. This type of news couldn’t be less reliable.
It seems it is not just Ukraine that’s been destroyed, a risk taking media hungry for the truth also seems to have been buried.
100% – EVERY Western MSM article, BBC, CBC, PBS – EVERY thing they say on this war is a LIE!
Unherd kind of adds some opposition to the big lie, but always tempered with the kind of backhanded praise of Zelenski’s Ukraine….
”What’s more, given Ukraine’s proven ability to roll back Russian occupied territory, it’s certainly conceivable that there could be a second battle for Bakhmut. This could be during the coming offensive, or further down the line.”
Colonel MacGregor, Scott Ritter and Mercourious on youtube almost daily (the latter two a bit problematic – but back the very legit MacGregor’s views) All have told of How Russia is not ‘Rolled Back’ in the sense of defeated – but using the very sensible strategy of falling back to solid defensive lines wile the attacking Ukrainians burn their resources out on forward attacking.
The 3 also say Bakhmut was a ‘Roach Motel’, to put it in bad taste – but illustrative (that is a glue trap roaches enter, but get stuck and never leave)
They say with dug in, Massed, artillery beyond range of Ukrainian effective replying fire – and sighted in – the Ukrainians were allowed to have a center to keep pouring men and material into, for them to be ground to rubble by the Massed Russian meat grinder Artillery. This resulted in the famous 7 Ukrainians lost to 1 Russian in this endless battle. It was one long suicide mission, which Russia let them just keep marching into.
This war is the most evil war since WWII. NEVER did Ukraine have a chance. Biden and his running dog Boris made this war. (and Sunak, Truss, Hunt – and every wicked Conservative, which is about all of them, and same for Labour – as is true for the USA House and Senate – every last one owned by the Military Industrial Complex and the Globalists)
Biden-Boris completely Destroyed Ukraine for sick globalist and $$$ reasons. They used it for their proxy war games, it is finished!
Ukraine went in with 35 Million citizens, now it has less then 20 Million people! 90% of those who left say they are never going back – this is the greatest harm inflicted. Also the country is destroyed – 300,000 Ukrainian solderers dead, an equal number disabled with wounds and PSTD, and many civilians, and many Russians and people of all the region. The economy of Europe destroyed – the global economy headed to a Great Depression…..
Obama laid the groundwork for this war. 2014 changed the government, armed and trained the Ukrainian army for this war, and began the process of getting Ukraine into NATO and EU.
Biden finished the task he began as VP – and destroyed the country which had been his family (and the Clinton’s and Obama’s), Piggy Bank.
This was Never about freedom – this was a Globalist 100% Corrupt war against the Old World Order to create ‘The Great Reset’. This war was against YOU.
And you mindless ‘Sheep Of War’ useful idiots cheered this disaster, this slaughter, this vampire machine, on…..as you were told to – same as you stupid fools did over the Plandemic called covid, and the Bio-weapon called the mRNA vax. Gullible Fools! You cheered for your own destruction! You banged pots and Tictoc danced for it….and now you have it – a coming global depression.
Er, Russia is actually attacking Ukraine.
Has been all winter, for zero gains. The US calculates the Russian losses as 5 for every Ukrainian. That’s just what Teixeira’s leaked docs said.
Ingenious Troll arguments that down is up and up is down don’t really stop the new British Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
Sorry to burst your balloon.
Check out McGregor’s youtube…. unless you really think MSM is legit and not shaping the narrative.
Ooooh, “Scott’s Secret Knowledge,” available only to the Illuminati!
Fact is, even Scott Ritter says that the EU and US are in this for the long haul, unlike Putin’s 3-day lightning war. That’s why the Ukrainians are getting F-16s, and will get even more weapons in future. The technical gap between Russia and Ukraine grow day by day.
The real point is that you need to read a range of sources, not just Scott, to find out what’s going on.
And sadly…every indicator says Russia is finished.
The balloon is just fine.
Supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles was a stupid, grossly irresponsible and dangerous decision.
Could you tell us why?
People on your side of argument seem happy for Russia to loot, rape and murder but giving Ukraine weapons to fight back is “stupid etc”
Without acknowledging the West’s part in this history? Without trying to negotiate peace? Without media bringing a considered viewpoint? Without acknowledging that Ukraine and their leadership are far from saints themselves? Without recognizing that the US is simply printing money to benefit those supplying weapons at a cost, be it direct or indirect to everyone around the globe? I could go on. Personally I would like to scrutinize Zelensky’s bank accounts.
How else can we destroy Putin’s Russia?
Please present an alternative.
I genuinely don’t understand your post.
Only war-mongers want to destroy Russia.
Russia is no threat to the west,
the Soviet Union has long gone.
Looks like it’s a Russian plot to destroy themselves, then.
Nobody forced them to attack on 24 Feb, and now they can’t even hang on to Belgorod.
Yes, yes, yes a thousand times.
Why ?
Because it is a major ESCALATION, that is why.
The Russians are not looting, raping and murdering.
Why would they do such a thing ?
How would that help
their cause ?
When are you EVER going to question the lying media ?
Are you really that gullible ?
Giving Ukraine weapons to fight back ?
These Stormshadow missiles are designed to be launched from aircraft but Ukraine doesn’t have suitable aircraft and the SS is far less effective if launched from land.
The whole thing was started by the US back in the Obama administration.
It’s no good saying your cause is just when you are lying in a smoking ruin after the nuclear attack.
No nuclear attack ever–at least from Russia.
Facts:
–The vaunted Kinzhal can be destroyed by 40-year old Patriots. The one advantage Russia had is just another Potemkin rocket.
–Russia expended almost all its nuclear capable cruise missiles in idiotic attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Their attempts to freeze Ukraine (and the West) have failed miserably.
–The Russian army has degraded both its personnel and equpt all winter for zero gains.
Russia is neither a significant nuclear power nor a significant military power.
The sorry end of all this will be teh deaths of 10s of thousands more Russians when the real offensive begins.
Th ‘Unheard Reader’ and their 15 ‘thumbs ups’ shows a big hole in the validation process at Unheard to my mind, and absolutely nothing about the war itself, or western media attitudes or anything else..
It was an obvious bot type rant..but getting upticks …that’s crazy.
Hope the tin hat is comfortable.
The poster is 100% correct.
You forgot to put “in” in front of correct.
What do you know anyway ?
Stop watching the BBC and reading the Express or the Mail or whatever it is.
You should be ashamed of yourself cheering on death and destruction.
So, you aren’t cheering on death and destruction, when prime time Russian TV advocates carpet bombing Ukrainian towns, and they allow someone to advocate burning Ukrainian children alive?
I have said many times I want peace.
Thank you comrade for looking in.
That is so childish.
Made in Moscow, it has to be first rate goods.
Er… so it’s legitimate for Russia to invade its neighbour? If you cast your mind back 15 months, that’s what happened.
More than enough required legitimacy provided by the US’s actions towards Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. etc.
Don’t recall the US claiming any of those were part of the US?
Russia does, which is why they say they may have to kill 2 million Ukrainians in order to “De-Nazify” the country. Otherwise they could never hold it.
Did I miss something?
The US invades and bombs at will under the excuse it is defending American interests.. that amounts to the same thing in practucal terms..
Yeah, I once saw a dog that looked a lot like a cat.
Don’t think I ever heard anyone say that Afghans, Libyans and Iraqis were Americans.
Nor did Russia have the excuse of 3000 dead citizens killed by terrorists based in Afghanistan.
Why not drag in ray-cism and transphobia while you’re at it?
That is simplistic and takes no account of US involvement since 2014.
..that sounds true for sure, but it us a gross distortion.. distorted by glaring omissions of the real causative factors..
Exactly right.
You war-mongers should read this post and learn something.
Step outside your fantasy bubble into the real world for once and stop cheering on this mayhem.
.in the words of Sam Goldwin of MGM, “Include me out” of that accusation.. I loudly voiced my opposition to each and every one.
Since Ukraine hadn’t acknowledged the loss, an hour’s hesitation to find out the real facts is only prudent journalism.
Russia also said it would take Kyiv in three days, and that it would freeze both Europe and Ukraine over the winter.
Should we have believed that as well?
You’ll just have to accept that Russian trolls are now beyond desperate, and will say anything.
They know their country is about to implode from the effects of this war.
How did the BBC find the real facts? It doesn’t have any journalists in the front line. By verify, you mean checked with the Ukrainian and British officials, which is also second hand and not impartial in any way.
As it was, the BBC story was unchanged from the AP wire. What was added was a heavy dose of opinion on what it meant, and what possibly could a news organisation know about that?
My point still stands: this is the first major war since the 19th century where major Western media outlets haven’t had correspondents in the front line. This is bad for all of us.
Er, CNN reports every day from the front, as do France24.
But if you never watch any MSM, you don’t know where they report from, do you?
CNN lol
They’re not in St Petersburg, like Scott Ritter.
Sources for Ukraine are a bit thin there, I hear.
St Petersburg is also quite a long way fron the front.
To be fair, not only people on the side of Russia claim that West response is always late and inadequate.
Former Polish commander of Land Forces gave long interview last year explaining why rolling back Russian gains was much easier last summer when Russian army was in disarray but West was unwilling to commit adequate resources.
Who knows what happens after USA presidential elections.
I hope USA will persevere because it can not be seen to fail, but it is not given.
The truth was grievously wounded in Iraq, it finally died during Covid and was buried in the mud of the Donbas.
Only for idiots.
We’ve been able to distinguish the truth since Socrates and Ockham.
Agree. The news reporting of this war has been appalling. Especially “our BBC”. But then I would say real journalism is dying out in this country. Sky, BBC and ITN are desperate to engage with the twitter generation and therefore sensationalise domestic issues. For example, the continuing soap opera of the Conservative Party. It’s cheap, it’s trashy but most of all we are not understanding the most important European war since the 1940s.
Gasp!
So Rishi Sunak isn’t actually Prime Minster?
They will stop at nothing to misinform us!
For some reason UnHerd seems to have become a haven for Russian trolls, Putin sympathisers, and the loony right.
No, there no Russian trolls here.
We want peace and we don’t want to get nuked.
Think about that for a minute.
They don’t think. Not really.
Yes, maybe they won’t nuke us if we were to give them Poland as well.
Peace is incredibly simple
Putin just leaves Ukraine.
If you want anything else, you are a war monger.
In the US it has become clear that the news media with a minor exception here and there have been absorbed and function as an arm of the deep state.
Where are all the war correspondents? All we have is ‘she said, he said’from both sides. The media is made up of cowards that make the journalists that covered the Spanish Civil War and Vietnam look like titans.
I suspect the problem is the modern focus on ‘health and safety’. I’m sure war correspondents would be more than willing to report from the front lines but are being prevented by bureaucracy.
To be fair to journalists, if MSM are unwilling to publish what they write for whatever reason, why would they bother to be there?
The war correspondents are at the front.
They regularly report from CNN, France24 etc.
But if you don’t watch those outlets, you don’t see them.
Simple as that.
So called war correspondents now report what the are told (by one side only) from the safety if their hotels 200km from the front. The term journalist should read spokesman.
Don’t lie.
Reporters risk their lives every day at the front.
As you well know.
One of the better articles about the war from unherd, I would only add that there are rumours that the head of the Ukrainian army General Zaluzhny may have been killed by a missile strike
It was a stupid article – it 100% missed the point of everything.
Friend, it was at least a step up from the Times.
Every time I read or hear anything on the Times from that cretinous organ, I lose 20 points of IQ.
Indeed, much better to trust Twitter rumours than reporters actually on the ground in Ukraine.
One of the saddest and most troubling aspect of this conflict is that a large minority of the of the British public who were presumably
decent people, have become propagandised by the lying western media to such an extent, they are now rabid war-mongers.
We need peace and the only way to get that is for both sides to negotiate.
Once Ukraine takes Crimea, there will be plenty of time to negotiate
What’s it got to do with you anyway?
Ukraine is finished.
That’s why they are in Belgorod Oblast.
Given that I don’t really follow the war stories, a map would be more helpful than place-names.
This is nothing to do with lines on a map. Not that they matter anyway as every thing coming out is a lie anyway – this is about the pivotal battle of this proxy war finishing. It would not matter where it had been – the point is Ukraine is beaten. The war is over but for the long self destructive phase leading to the peace treaty which well be worse than if it happened day One – but with a nation destroyed, and the global economy teetering because of this insanity. And about 2 $Trillion of more Debt created in Western economies.
This battle proved one thing the Stupid American Generals (every one of the 44 (WWII had 9) 100% Political 4 Star Generals) – everything the 4 Star Generals said was Wrong. (A modern General is a Political animal – he does Exactly as told by the politicians to be promoted so that he will get a seat on the board of the military Industral Complex board rooms when he retires, and become very wealthy. ( every real solider peaks at Colonel because he has Honour – so is weeded out!)
The Western Generals thought this was a NU modern war of smart weapons. Of self guiding bombs, missiles, drones, satellite info. They thought they could give these to Ukraine and wipe out the Russians. Turns out – it is WWII all over. Massed Artillery! Millions of high explosive shells shot 20 – 40 MILES!!! They sit out of the range of these modern weapons and meat grind the opposition. Russia knew this – that is why they can produce 10 times as many artilliary rounds as the West – although their budget is a tenth of ours and their industry a hundredth.
Because Every 4 Star is a political yes man – none of them know anything of military. They can ‘Recognize Diversity’, spot ‘White Rage’, make Troon recruitment drives – and Mostly – they can make sure the Politician’s pet Military Industry Complex gets endless orders for weapons that make the most money – and so get the most campaign funds contributed.
But they are disaster if in charge of fighting a real military. They can kill sandal wearing Talabian in the desert from Apache Helicopters (like Harry) but against a real army? Russia? They are stupid corrupt idiots. They destroyed the British and American and all European Military. They lost the war which only idiots such as them could lose. (as Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan prove)
Amusing that you don’t know that Russia is also suffering from ammo shortages–as well as manpower shortages.
And that they keep “heroically” retreating
So, quite understandably, no Russian wants to be the last man killed in a failed invasion of Ukraine.
Think how horrible it must be for every Russian with brains–who sees his country moving ever closer to the Cliff…
There are not suffering from ammo shortages.
Clearly you live in another universe!
Magnificent and clear-eyed rant, sir.
Your evisceration of the avarice, hubris and ignorance of Western militaries was spot on.
You make some valid points about this war and previous ones.
However, your comments about artillery being out of range of modern weapons is just plainly wrong.
Problem is that with West cutting down on arms manufacture since the 90s, they are not enough smart weapons to deploy.
Sounds plausible..
Awaiting for approval
– this is how it is – canceled –
Unherd? Yea, because you turn off the microphone.
It happens to me quite often.
Process is automated and triggered by dictionary of “forbiden” words.
I was censored today by typing economic su***de.
Typing Communism is fine but Na**sm of Fas***sm is forbidden.
Douglas McGregor provides real insight into this war so that we don’t see it through only through the lens of MSM.
Douglas McGregor provides comic relief to an otherwise grim and nasty war.
Pls name one prediction of his that has proved correct.
Oh, I forgot.
The Fall of Kyiv was one of his better calls…
I don’t have all the answers on this war and only recently started watching McGregor, but I believe it is always better to listen to other sources than MSM. Others continue to sit slack-jawed in front of SKY, CNN, MSNBC, BBC etc. This approach has proved very worthwhile over the last years, as all my conspiracy theories have come true. It is obvious that the US is not advocating peace talks, because it serves certain people to fund this war.
You continue to believe this is a war being won by Ukraine on all fronts, with noble people on one side and villains on the other. I believe otherwise.
There is no point advocating peace talks if there is no one trustworthy to talk to and no peace to be had.
I don’t source my information here from the MSM either. But I do try to filter out sources I know to be incorrect and propaganda driven. It’s not that difficult to eliminate the obviously untrue and unreliable stuff.
Where has Martin Logan said that the Ukrainian side was universally “noble” ?
But what is beyond any doubt is that there are villains on the Russian side (leadership – though that’s a very flattering word for the incompetents running the show there … doesn’t mean the ordinary soliders are villains).
I suspect you are still imaging there’s some sort of moral equivalance between Russia and Ukraine. There really isn’t.
Every society has criminals.
I only hope after this is over that anyone who has committed crimes is brought to justice.
Well Zelenskyy can always flee to the US with the $millions he has embezzled.
That would include two American presidents and at least one British PM, among hundreds of Ukrainians.. I think I’d chuck in UvdL also.
Sadly, the victors never get tried.
The only question is whether Putin will be corpse before he gets to the Hague.
And of course, there are no N**IS
embedded in the Ukrainian army.
The Russian guys who killed civilians in Bucha and every other captured Ukrainian town sure look a lot like Nazis.
They tortured people then killed them if they were suspected of supporting Ukraine.
Russia is a far sicker place than Ukraine ever could be..
Projection.
You are spot on. The issue with this war is that there are no good guys or bad guys. They are all equally bad. And perhaps worst of all, unfortunately, is the west spear-headed by the US and UK who fostered this war to begin with. Had they not interfered in Ukraine, especially in 2014 where they effectively orchestrated a coup, thanks to Victoria Nuland and the State Department, among others, we would never have found ourselves in the situation we are in currently.
Absolutely correct.
You are still spouting Russian propaganda.
Equally bad?
I am sorry but it is Russia which invaded Ukraine.
Russian stooges like you forget that no Oblast of Ukraine wanted to be part of Russia.
Donbass and Luhansk voted 83% for Ukrainian independence in 1991 referendum.
There were many democratic elections in Ukraine since 2014.
Can you say this about Russia?
How come Zelenskyy has opposition politians and journalists in jail ?
How come Zelenskyy has shut down the free press ?
Well ?
He has slapped them in jail because right now he is too busy jetting around the world dressed in expensive olive green faux military chilled gear on his shaming and money grabbing junkets. He needn’t really bother… he need just phone old Joe, who will print some money to send some more money to Ukraine – at the same time funnelling money into his own (and Zelensky’s) coffers. Amongst others. Time to ask again… who is managing Joe? Who is in charge of the US?
And looks like it’s working pretty well.
Russia is about to go under.
I think you’ll find the populations of the Donbas charged their minds after 8 years of being slaughtered by the NatC Azov battalion (14 000 killed).. and that was BEFORE Putin invaded!
That’s the total dead in the 2014-15 war.
Mutual shelling has resulted in a few dozen casualties each year since.
As you well know.
Yanukovich started the coup.
He tried to join the EU. When Putin forbade it, half a million Ukrainians came on the streets.
Then, after Yanukovich ordered over 100 people killed, he fled the country, and they LEGALLY elected a new president.
When you talk about Ukraine, shouldn’t you know something about Ukraine–other than that “the MSM always lie?”
But you neglect the involvement of the US State Department, Obama, Biden and NATO.
And the MSM always lie because they have been bought.
Martin doesn’t seem to know who funds MSM!
The HIdden Hand!
Oooh, this is exciting.
Seriously, you are sounding like a bunch of conspiracy theorists too dumb to realize the world is a very complex place.
Perhaps I know every bit as much as you. But quite frankly, Martin, you’re beginning to sound more and more like Baghdad Bob.
Let’s be totally honest here. The war between Ukraine and Russia amounts to border conflict in a far away land that is of no strategic interest to the US or the UK or western Europe or even the EU countries of Eastern Europe. The situation between Ukraine and Russia is vastly more complex than you appear to realize and the links between the two regions are exceedingly close and intermingled. It’s worth noting that many cities in Ukraine were founded by Catherine the Great. While western Ukraine may perhaps be considered a different polity, clearly Eastern Ukraine and Russia are part of the same polity. Further Eastern Ukraine is overwhelmingly Russian culturally and linguistically.
The real tragedy is that there have been so many deaths for really no reason. Yes the proximal cause of the war was the Feb 2022 invasion by the Russians. But this was preceded by several decades of the US pocking the bear and continually trying to push NATO ever eastwards. Those who sow the whirlwind eventually reap the whirlwind.
Had the US not treated Russia as an enemy following the fall of the Soviet Union, and brought Russia into the west, none of this would have ever occurred.
Incidentally, isn’t it interesting that perhaps Western civilization, especially in music and literature, is being preserved by the likes of Russia while being systematically dismantled by the woke elite who have taken over the West (or at least the US and the UK).
In the meantime the war continues and the companies making up the military-industrial complex in the west are getting ever richer. Nothing changes.
Sorry, you have no clue.
Putin’s intention was take all of Ukraine, corner teh world’s food supply, and dominate Europe through gas and oil.
It was the only way Russia could ever be significant again.
It has backfired spectacularly, and will eventually lead to Russia’s collapse.
If you choose to live in a Dream World, that’s fine. But Putin has committed the greatest blunder of the 21st Century, far more deadly for his nation than Iraq ever was to the US.
He gambled and lost, just like Dostoevsky’s hero in “The Gambler.”
Now every Russian must pay for his idiocy.
Time will surely tell, but I would wager that your predictions are way off the mark. Unfortunately, the current situation will lead to the fall of the US Empire which is rapidly going the way of the Roman empire. Meanwhile Russia is richer than ever, despite the sanctions or because of the sanctions. This war will likely result in a multipolar world largely dominated by the East, especially China, to the detriment of the West.
Surely the lessons of recent history should teach us, in the West, not to meddle in far off places that are of no security concern to the West. Every western intervention since the Korean war has either resulted in a loss and retreat, or left things in a a worse of state than they were before the intervention.
Putin has NEVER said he wanted all of Ukraine.
Ukraine and the west reneged on the Minsk agreement.
That was done to give Ukraine time to build up a war fighting capability.
Logan’s motives are unclear but what is clear is that he is a fantasist and completely divorced from reality.
Indeed.
My prediction in March 2022 that nearly all of Russia’s tanks would be destroyed in Ukraine has proved quite prescient.
But the real tragedy is that, now, most of the Russian conscripts may never return home.
Sadly, I can read maps.
And they tell me Russia has retreated since the first weeks of the war. You DO understand that, when armies retreat, it is called this thing called “defeat?”
And that the Russian Army is a wretchedly dysfunctional force–just like Russia itself.
Watching the MSM will actually help you learn something about this war.
And watching somebody with no sources, who has fled to Russia, and thus dares not crticise Putin, may be…
Sub-Optimal.
What relevance has prediction compared to reporting what has and us actually happening!
Reading what journalists write about this war is to be confused. If the fall of this city is a win for the vile Russians, it is also a win for the valiant Ukrainians who lured them into squandering tens of thousands of lives for a Pyrrhic victory of no strategic value whatever.
I suspect we’re going to see many more humiliations for Russia, just like the incursion into Belgorod Oblast.
It must be absolute horror for Pro-Putin Russians just now.
It’s like the old KGB punishment:
They’re locked in an iron cage, headed for the mouth of a furnace.
And there’s nothing they can do to save themselves…
Why do I feel like someone claiming that witches don’t exist, to a group of 17th C Cromwellians in East Anglia?
I strongly object to any claim of equivalence between 17th century Cromwellians who were fighting for the freedom of England (and helped make our country what it is today) and the rag taggle band of denialist nutters who can’t or won’t understand the otherwise sensible stuff you’re writing !
I am amazed at the people below who are so divorced from reality that they can’t judge what’s happening by just following different sources and choosing the more likely hypothesis.
No war has ever been won by an army fleeing several different battlefields for over a year.
I suspect Post-Modernism has so warped their consciousnesses that if Truth came up and slapped them on the face, they’d claim it was a ham sandwich made by the CIA.
So deeply paronoid, it’s beyond parody.
You are the one who is divorced from reality.
I am beginning to wonder about your sanity given your obsession with Russia.
Truth? What makes someone so confident that they possess truth?
When Western “leadership” believes that a man can become a woman, truth is dead. Same for this war.
Actually, people with brains know quite a bit about this war.
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee spring to mind.
But they actually look at evidence, unlike the Scott Ritters of this world
Actually you are very wrong and perhaps should read a bit of history. If you were to follow the path of the US Civil War you would know that the North experienced defeat after defeat for the 1st 3 years but then things turned around. Why? Because ultimately the North was economically far stronger and had far more resources. Whether you like it or not, Ukraine is relatively small, while Russia is large. Despite the western sanctions, Russia is only getting richer through their oil and sales to non-western countries, including China. Further, don’t forget that Russia has more nuclear warheads than the US, and if pushed into a corner may well end up using them. Probably best for everyone, you included (especially since you live in the UK and therefore several thousands of miles closer to the action than I am in the US) that that doesn’t happen.
Sorry, the Civil War proves you wrong.
The North was an industrial power house. Putin’s Russia is a post-industrial kleptocratic state. Moreover, due to the demographic collapse, they simply don’t have enough workers, even if they could open more factories. They are already talking of a 6-day work week.
Indeed, Ukraine’s own weapons routinely outperform Russia’s. Still worse, Russian science, unlike the North’s, is riddled with corruption and incompetence. Don’t expect any Russian “wonder weapons” in this war–unless it’s that single T-34.
Finally, Russia is in a far weaker position for nuclear war than it was on 23 Feb 2022.
Now we know the Kinzhal doesn’t work. Nearly all the nuclear-capable cruise missiles have been expended on freezing Ukrainians (how well di that work out?)
If anything, Russia has far more to fear from a nuclear war than it did 16 months ago.
So sleep safe.
Seems to me you are really living in cloud cuckoo land. Nobody wins in a nuclear war. Everybody gets incinerated. But if you want to play the game of who has most to fear, I would simply point out to you that Russia’s land mass is absolutely massive.
Half of the US defense budgets is devoted to confronting Russia. The percentage is even greater for much of NATO.
Whatever the merits of the old Soviet Army, this war has decisively proved that Putin’s army is well nigh worthless.
–We now know Putin’s vaunted Kinzhal missile is easily shot down by Patriots.
–We now know that, unlike any Western Military, the Russia Air Force is incapable of establishing air superiority, a la Iraq, or even dares venture into Ukrainain air space. The planes just get shot down.
–We now know that even the regular Russian army was a deeply incompetent force.
–We now know that the conscripts drafted to replace them have never been trained up even to that abysmally low level of expertise.
–We now know that Putin’s personal involvement in this disaster has destroyed any possibility of even a “draw” for Russia.
Indeed, whether Russia even survives this disaster is a real question.
But for us, this is going to halve the military budgets of nearly all Western nations.
A Win-Win for humanity.
Or, to paraphrase Stalin:
“No Russia, no Problem.”
This essay is just a premature reprinting of press releases, devoid of any insight. Russia claims victory, Ukraine denies it, there is going to be a counteroffensive, all sorts of Ukrainian towns might fall, or maybe not.
In the absence of actual independent analysis, we have to assume both sides are involved in heavy psy-opps through the press and social media. It seems most likely that there was a negotiated withdrawal of Wagner (they were in contact with Ukraine to effect this recently) in order to save face and maybe buy someone some time for something,
Also, why wouldn’t Ukraine just crush the remaining incompetent Russian forces once Wagner left town? Makes no sense…which means we know nothing.
The Russians are winning
If you flee from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, and keep losing large numbers of your ships and aircraft, that’s the very definition of winning.
But none of that is happening. It’s western propaganda, Daily Express style.
So Russia didn’t withdraw from Kherson and lose masses of territory once occupied in Kharkov oblast and north of Kiev.
Was that all fiction then ?
Before you answer that, just remember that even the Russians have admitted these withdrawals took place.
One further question. You’re clearly expert at spotting propaganda. So please report back if you’ve seen any Russian propaganda over the past 18 months. Feel free to give a few examples.
They are tactical withdrawals
This draws the Ukrainian army into the artillery fire where they can be wiped out.
People like you have to take some responsibility for this death and destruction because you are cheering on a war from the comfort of your sofa and not pleading for peace.
Truly delusional. Time for the men in white coats I think …
Just answer the question – the second one – and stop deflecting.
I answered the question.
You just don’t have the intellectual capacity to process it.
You appear to be on the level of the average Sun or Mirror reader.
Indeed.
Putin withdrew from Kyiv–to lure the Ukrainians into his ingenious attack on…Bakhmut?!
Beyond delusional.
Sounding more and more like a 17th C Russian Old Believer–about to enter a church to be immolated.
Indeed.
Putin’s army is still outside of Kyiv.
That’s why everybody there is enjoying the weather.
<i>Also, why wouldn’t Ukraine just crush the remaining incompetent Russian forces once Wagner left town?</i>
Because the Russian army, while not as good as the American, is too strong for the Ukrainians to simply “crush”.
But it is not a “war” as such.
It is a conflict and yes and many have died on both sides.
Russia does not want to destroy Ukraine but the longer this drags on the more likely it is that Ukraine will be obliterated.
But we can actually take a look at a map.
Russia has lost half the area it initially took after 24 Feb 2022. It also has used up almost all it strategic weapons (designed to fight NATO) on fruitless attacks. Ditto for many of its half-trained recruits. Instead of digging in to repel a Ukrainian counterattack, almost all of Russia’s elite forces were consumed in fruitless frontal attacks over the winter.
And now three western-trained Ukrainian Corps, who have not yet been committed, are about to attack.
That’s what “we know.”
The real story is that Prigozhin is declaring “victory” before the Bakhmut battle turns decisively against Russia. He will then withdraw Vagner, and so use his “victory” in the coming struggle to replace Putin.
A real “victory” would transform into a new push westwards, whereas Russia is having difficulty hanging on to what it has.
Russia is also losing both its Kinzhal “hypersonic missiles, and aircraft like the SU-35 to the new Western weapons.
The weight of Western technology is turning the war ever-more in Ukraine’s favour.
Won’t be long now…
Don’t hold your breath, chief. Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are next.
Oooh, right after they lose Belgorod.
Somehow I think you’re living in a world of complete make belief.
He is.
“make believe”
And your prediction that “only” 15,000 would die in this war was NOT “make belief?”
A little off, were we?
Excellent from Logan, all the way up
Generally on this site we tend not to play the game of picking on typos, spelling, autocomplete errors etc. This isn’t Facebook. Stick to the debate.
Pitiful. Utterly pitiful.
He questioned a specific numeric claim. Not a “typo”.
No, it was the comment before that ” make belief” instead of ” make believe”.
About the only thing that
Mr Logan has been correct on.
The best non-MSM site is actually Strelkov’s. He’s violently pro-Russian, but also sees the disastrous course Putin has followed. He thinks the war is already lost.
Use Google translate and learn:
https://t.me/s/strelkovii
(Although any Putin troll will automatically call him a traitor)
Pro-Russian ?
I follow him on Twitter. He refers to Russians as “worms”.
Disgusting.
Can you imagine if that had been said of any other people ?
Or, if, like they said on prime time Russian TV, that Kyiv should be levelled and every citizen killed?
Or that Ukrainian children should be burned alive?
As in earlier times. First they say things like that.
And then they do it.
Sorry, that’s a Ukrainian site. It’s to get up Girkin’s nose.
Go to Russian Telegram for the real Strelkov.
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