May 5, 2023 - 4:30pm
Most of the Tories’ worst fears appear to have materialised in the local elections: Labour has made inroads in the North, while the Lib Dems have knocked bricks out the Blue Wall in the shires. Yet one glimmer of hope remains for Rishi Sunak: the failed performance of their rivals on the Right.
Since he entered No. 10, there have been repeated warnings that Sunak might be vulnerable from an insurgent Right clamouring about Brexit, small boats and other issues. That hasn’t translated into votes. Ukip is now a spent force, losing all its remaining councillors. Reform UK appears to have won nothing.
This confirms the most serious problems facing the Right. Firstly, since Brexit they have failed to assemble an arresting narrative. Voters are often uninterested in the intricacies of leaving the EU, and discussion around the deal and the Protocol has not translated into votes. Beyond that, Reform has failed to find a popular platform.
The party has leant heavily into lockdown scepticism, despite the overwhelming evidence that the measures were and remain, rightly or wrongly, popular with the country. Indeed, as pro-Brexit voters tend to be older and more authoritarian than average, it is a particularly poor message to court the same coalition. Equally, the party has failed to echo the high-spending populist economics that drove a significant chunk of Brexit support.
Beyond that, Reform seems to have failed to develop the ground game necessary to capitalise on its support. Elections are won through graft on the doorstep, finding your voters and getting them to turn out. That takes organisation, dedication and manpower. So far, there has been little evidence that the party has managed to amass any of these.
Looking ahead to the general election, the insurgent Right won’t be able to pull off any upsets unless they sort out their priorities. While their prominence in the air war of TV, social media and the press might drive up their national support, unless this is both concentrated and marshalled well, they won’t win any seats. Ukip at its height could never manage that — and Reform seems even further behind.
More worryingly for the smaller parties, failure to register any electoral success could see them crushed between the mainstream. As it becomes evident that they are incapable of winning, their attraction as anything more than a protest vote diminishes. If those on the Right think a vote for Reform will cost the Tories and empower Starmer, they may stick with Sunak. Equally, Labour-leaning Brexiteers might return to the fold if it gets the Tories out.
The British system makes it very difficult to establish an insurgent party. This will be of little comfort to Sunak today — but the new kids on the electoral block failing to convert attention to votes could save the Tories seats on a bad night in the general election.
John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.
Mr_John_Oxley
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SubscribeThe people who are being pauperised by immigration don’t realise that’s what’s happening – because the wealthy left have stymied the public debate – and the people who are being enriched by it don’t care about the damage it is doing to the social fabric and public services – or else regard it as a good thing. This is why it doesn’t have the electoral salience that it should.
Much truth here but I offer a few small revisions. First, I believe that people are waking up to the way in which they are being pauperised, but feel that their only recourse is to revert to Labour, given that their recent punt on the Tories has been so disappointing.
Second, whilst Reform’s poor showing is partially a result of a stitched up “national conversation”, it is also the result of long term demographic shifts – how many who voted Brexit are still with us? – and Reform’s own staggering incompetence. For example, it is about to repeat the Farage blunder of fielding candidates everywhere in hopes of a sudden, cataclysmic counter-revolution, instead of focusing on a tranche of constituencies with a view to gaining a foothold in parliament.
Finally, we have to realise – paradoxically at a time of renewed Marxist triumph – that Marxism was hopelessly wrong about the “proletariat”. Neither it nor any group which constitutes the working mass has ever influenced history or anything else. The key class is and always has been “les clercs”, whose current “trahison” is precisely that renewed Marxist triumph currently plaguing us. Where this has come from will puzzle historians of the future, should enough of our civilisation survive to attract their attention.
Very perceptive.
Very perceptive.
Much truth here but I offer a few small revisions. First, I believe that people are waking up to the way in which they are being pauperised, but feel that their only recourse is to revert to Labour, given that their recent punt on the Tories has been so disappointing.
Second, whilst Reform’s poor showing is partially a result of a stitched up “national conversation”, it is also the result of long term demographic shifts – how many who voted Brexit are still with us? – and Reform’s own staggering incompetence. For example, it is about to repeat the Farage blunder of fielding candidates everywhere in hopes of a sudden, cataclysmic counter-revolution, instead of focusing on a tranche of constituencies with a view to gaining a foothold in parliament.
Finally, we have to realise – paradoxically at a time of renewed Marxist triumph – that Marxism was hopelessly wrong about the “proletariat”. Neither it nor any group which constitutes the working mass has ever influenced history or anything else. The key class is and always has been “les clercs”, whose current “trahison” is precisely that renewed Marxist triumph currently plaguing us. Where this has come from will puzzle historians of the future, should enough of our civilisation survive to attract their attention.
The people who are being pauperised by immigration don’t realise that’s what’s happening – because the wealthy left have stymied the public debate – and the people who are being enriched by it don’t care about the damage it is doing to the social fabric and public services – or else regard it as a good thing. This is why it doesn’t have the electoral salience that it should.
Yes there was no Reform offering in my locality only the established tribe so I didn’t vote. At the GE things may be different but it is still an unknown.
Yes there was no Reform offering in my locality only the established tribe so I didn’t vote. At the GE things may be different but it is still an unknown.
If the forecasts are true we will find out on the 25th of this months that net immigration in 2022 – NET immigration- will between three quarters of a million and one million. That’s between 3 and 4 times the very high levels which brought about Brexit.
There’s the cause which which Reform which needs to hammer, hammer and hammer again, and not bleat on about abstruse causes like regulatory reform.
If the forecasts are true we will find out on the 25th of this months that net immigration in 2022 – NET immigration- will between three quarters of a million and one million. That’s between 3 and 4 times the very high levels which brought about Brexit.
There’s the cause which which Reform which needs to hammer, hammer and hammer again, and not bleat on about abstruse causes like regulatory reform.
The Right has a serious philosophical problem – it has not confronted fundamental contradictions between neo-liberalism and conservatism. It could square this for a while with bluster, but being in power for so long inevitably exposes the divide, with Brexit increasingly being the most obvious example. The general public will not fully comprehend detailed philosophical points of discussion but it’ll have a ‘gut’ instinct they’ve been sold a contradictory or false prospectus.
Perhaps the other key point the Author makes is ‘Elections are won through graft on the doorstep…’, and that this graft is lacking in Reform and it’s supporters. Lazy moaners? Oh the irony. But perhaps this just further underlines the demographic problem for elements of the Right – it’s the young that will get out and campaign. Sitting in the proverbial Golf club echo-chamber or on-line forum tut-tutting ain’t going to do it.
Not true. Liberalism and Conservatism alike recognise reality, nature and the harshness of both – the first where resources and their allocation are concerned (in contrast to mindless socialist profligacy) and the second where identity and loyalty kick in. They do not therefore contradict but mitigate each other. The left will always pretend that national borders contradict free trade but neither borders nor trade are crystalline absolutes – drugs, slaves, pirate copies of literature and so on have been banned under the most classical of Liberal regimes; likewise limited degrees of migration have been allowed into the most patriotic of societies – Catherine the Great’s Russia, for example. The resulting balance works a treat, unlike the preposterous and combustible policies of today’s essentially Marxist establishment.
Think your contentions part of the problem SD – million miles away from the reality the Tories face in maintaining Blue and Red Wall coalitions. Brexit allowed a temporary alliance to be struck. As that dissipates what is left but a circle they can’t square.
Think your contentions part of the problem SD – million miles away from the reality the Tories face in maintaining Blue and Red Wall coalitions. Brexit allowed a temporary alliance to be struck. As that dissipates what is left but a circle they can’t square.
Not true. Liberalism and Conservatism alike recognise reality, nature and the harshness of both – the first where resources and their allocation are concerned (in contrast to mindless socialist profligacy) and the second where identity and loyalty kick in. They do not therefore contradict but mitigate each other. The left will always pretend that national borders contradict free trade but neither borders nor trade are crystalline absolutes – drugs, slaves, pirate copies of literature and so on have been banned under the most classical of Liberal regimes; likewise limited degrees of migration have been allowed into the most patriotic of societies – Catherine the Great’s Russia, for example. The resulting balance works a treat, unlike the preposterous and combustible policies of today’s essentially Marxist establishment.
The Right has a serious philosophical problem – it has not confronted fundamental contradictions between neo-liberalism and conservatism. It could square this for a while with bluster, but being in power for so long inevitably exposes the divide, with Brexit increasingly being the most obvious example. The general public will not fully comprehend detailed philosophical points of discussion but it’ll have a ‘gut’ instinct they’ve been sold a contradictory or false prospectus.
Perhaps the other key point the Author makes is ‘Elections are won through graft on the doorstep…’, and that this graft is lacking in Reform and it’s supporters. Lazy moaners? Oh the irony. But perhaps this just further underlines the demographic problem for elements of the Right – it’s the young that will get out and campaign. Sitting in the proverbial Golf club echo-chamber or on-line forum tut-tutting ain’t going to do it.
” Firstly, since Brexit they have failed to assemble an arresting narrative.”
They won’t need one.
Why can’t the political class see that net zero and mass immigration is tantamount to driving off a cliff? The resultant immiseration, under both Tory and Labour governments, will lead to the collapse of both main parties as they are currently constituted. Under a first past the post electoral system, this takes time but it will happen.
Johnson’s party had an opportunity but didn’t reach for it. Stupidity or contempt? – Possibly both. As Reagan said ” You dance with the one that brung ya”
” Firstly, since Brexit they have failed to assemble an arresting narrative.”
They won’t need one.
Why can’t the political class see that net zero and mass immigration is tantamount to driving off a cliff? The resultant immiseration, under both Tory and Labour governments, will lead to the collapse of both main parties as they are currently constituted. Under a first past the post electoral system, this takes time but it will happen.
Johnson’s party had an opportunity but didn’t reach for it. Stupidity or contempt? – Possibly both. As Reagan said ” You dance with the one that brung ya”
The Reform party needs to offer a revolutionary alternative to differentiate from the established parties of failure. Not trying to infest local politics could be an advantage for a really dynamic offering. Local politics is a mess but it can be left for later – Westminster first.
I disagree with your second point. Parliamentary success comes from local strength and organisation and that means fighting your corner in local councils.
Well said. And it is exactly this sort of hard work which “Reform”, UKIP and all the variants on this theme have failed to do.
Walking around deliveromng leaflets in run down areas, in the dark when it is cold, wet and windy is not fun but it has enabled LDs to win seats at local and national level.
Reform = snowflake laziness
What does that even mean?
What does that even mean?
Reform = snowflake laziness
Walking around deliveromng leaflets in run down areas, in the dark when it is cold, wet and windy is not fun but it has enabled LDs to win seats at local and national level.
Well said. And it is exactly this sort of hard work which “Reform”, UKIP and all the variants on this theme have failed to do.
I disagree with your second point. Parliamentary success comes from local strength and organisation and that means fighting your corner in local councils.
The Reform party needs to offer a revolutionary alternative to differentiate from the established parties of failure. Not trying to infest local politics could be an advantage for a really dynamic offering. Local politics is a mess but it can be left for later – Westminster first.
The Right should sensibly accept they’ve already lost the majority of younger voters so there’s a smaller pool to fish in to start with. Demonising and dehumanising migrants has got a core constituency but Suella De Ville has pretty much got that covered, although there may be a gap to exploit when the gap between her rhetoric and her competence and ability to deliver on it become too apparent but that alone won’t lead to any NewKip MPs.
Voters have also spotted that any benefits of Brexit have proved illusory and any attempt to sell a harder version – the Singapore-on-Thames fantasy – that would mean even more trashing of public services etc and tax cuts for the rich is not likely to appeal to the older demographic that votes Tory.
Culture Wars also don’t have the same salience that they do in the US so chuntering constantly about woke or single sex bathrooms will have a minority audience at best.
It will be interesting, though, after the next election to see if the Conservatives themselves split into, say, ‘Christian Nationalist’ and ‘Centrist’ wings or whatever, which could lead to a realignment on the right. We may also see the return of Bad King Boris or Mad Queen Liz, who knows.
V much agree JM.
In some regards it has required the rallying call of Brexit to delay a fracturing of the Right. Now as that bonding solvent retreats the fissures are re-illuminated.
Both you and John Murray use the term “right” as a general purpose insult. Sadly, neither of you have the faintest idea what the word actually means in a wider historical context, and of course, by extension, neither of you know what it is, or was, to be “left”. Back in the day, the equivalent of Brexit was very much a left wing cause (rightly so). You are both irretrievably bourgeois liberal. You are welcome to feel insulted!
But PR I’m always gratified when you read any comments I might make and grace them with a response. Certainly never feel insulted even if if I think you are conveying gibberish.
As regards defining the ‘Right’ – enlighten us?
I don’t feel remotely insulted, just the general feeling of pity that I get when I read any of your posts.
But PR I’m always gratified when you read any comments I might make and grace them with a response. Certainly never feel insulted even if if I think you are conveying gibberish.
As regards defining the ‘Right’ – enlighten us?
I don’t feel remotely insulted, just the general feeling of pity that I get when I read any of your posts.
Both you and John Murray use the term “right” as a general purpose insult. Sadly, neither of you have the faintest idea what the word actually means in a wider historical context, and of course, by extension, neither of you know what it is, or was, to be “left”. Back in the day, the equivalent of Brexit was very much a left wing cause (rightly so). You are both irretrievably bourgeois liberal. You are welcome to feel insulted!
V much agree JM.
In some regards it has required the rallying call of Brexit to delay a fracturing of the Right. Now as that bonding solvent retreats the fissures are re-illuminated.
The Right should sensibly accept they’ve already lost the majority of younger voters so there’s a smaller pool to fish in to start with. Demonising and dehumanising migrants has got a core constituency but Suella De Ville has pretty much got that covered, although there may be a gap to exploit when the gap between her rhetoric and her competence and ability to deliver on it become too apparent but that alone won’t lead to any NewKip MPs.
Voters have also spotted that any benefits of Brexit have proved illusory and any attempt to sell a harder version – the Singapore-on-Thames fantasy – that would mean even more trashing of public services etc and tax cuts for the rich is not likely to appeal to the older demographic that votes Tory.
Culture Wars also don’t have the same salience that they do in the US so chuntering constantly about woke or single sex bathrooms will have a minority audience at best.
It will be interesting, though, after the next election to see if the Conservatives themselves split into, say, ‘Christian Nationalist’ and ‘Centrist’ wings or whatever, which could lead to a realignment on the right. We may also see the return of Bad King Boris or Mad Queen Liz, who knows.