May 4, 2023 - 10:00am
On 3rd May, Russia announced the downing of two drones over Moscow, with footage later showing one exploding over the Kremlin and causing a fire. Russia subsequently accused Ukraine of trying to assassinate President Vladimir Putin by targeting his residence, but Kyiv has denied any connection to the attack.
Ukraine is an obvious suspect, particularly in light of comments made by the country’s military intelligence leader, Kyrylo Budanov, who said after the Engels airbase operation at the end of last year that such attacks would continue to take place “deeper and deeper” into Russian territory as the conflict progressed. Colin Clarke, the Director of Research at The Soufan Group, told UnHerd that if Ukraine was behind the attack, it was to send a message:
On the same day as the Kremlin attack, another apparent drone strike was carried out against a Russian fuel storage facility near the port of Taman, with one drone crashing in the vicinity of Kolomna in the Moscow Oblast, while another was shot down by air defences over the town of Feodosia in Crimea.
Russia’s security problems do not stop there. Additionally, two Russian trains were derailed this week as a result of suspected sabotage activities against rail tracks. Investigators believe improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were detonated on Monday and Tuesday in Russia’s Bryansk region. And although the perpetrators are currently unknown, it is worth noting that Bryansk is where the pro-Ukraine Russian Volunteer Corps has been conducting cross-border operations. What’s more, in the two days leading up to the rail attacks a reported drone hit an oil depot in Crimea and caused a large fire, while power lines were blown up near Saint Petersburg.
Russia faces a multifaceted threat from Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage units, ideological Russian dissident elements fighting for Ukraine, and domestic partisans such as the anarcho-communist BOAK movement. These Russian partisan attacks are becoming more sophisticated, with BOAK’s tactics in particular having evolved over the course of the war. Previously, the group had been using simple incendiary devices and tool-assisted sabotage of Russian train tracks. Now, however, they are employing more developed IEDs, partly enabled by the close study of the technical details of railway infrastructure, as well as by the circulation of tradecraft manuals from other guerrilla groups.
The Kremlin attack is just the latest incident in the surge of operations by Ukrainian forces and Russian anti-state actors. However, the strike on Russia’s centre of power is unprecedented in this war, and it will undoubtedly anger Putin, drawing pressure from the hawks to respond in a serious way. Already, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and the country’s former president, has publicly called for the “elimination” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his “clique” in Kyiv. Likewise, the chairman of the Russian Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, declared that “there can be no negotiations” with Zelenskyy, and urged the use of “weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime”.
Despite the media focus on the Ukrainian counteroffensive, there are other aspects to this war that could lead to significant escalation. These recent operations only give us a flavour.
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SubscribeWhy are you taking it for granted that this drone attack was indeed a real one and not some type of Russian maskirovska action?
Why are you taking it for granted that this drone attack was indeed a real one and not some type of Russian maskirovska action?
Seems to me there are three theories that have credibility and in descending order of probability:
Russian false flag to justify some other intended action
Local saboteurs, who are increasingly active e.g. train derailments
Ukraine PR stunt
Guess we’ll never know.
I’m utterly confused:
If the Western mainstream media say it’s a false-flag operation, then I’m inclined to think it’s a Ukrainian attack.If Moscow says it’s a Ukrainian attack, I’m inclined to think it’s a Russian flag operation.
Indeed, what does seem clear however is this was not an assassination attempt as claimed by Moscow. Unless of course he was meditating in the dome at the time.
i am confused as well – cant we call these things ‘another Russian lying fest ‘ or something equally simple ??
Indeed, what does seem clear however is this was not an assassination attempt as claimed by Moscow. Unless of course he was meditating in the dome at the time.
i am confused as well – cant we call these things ‘another Russian lying fest ‘ or something equally simple ??
I’ll go with your 4th theory Robbie!!
The Ukrainians denied it was them, but at the same time they had a postage stamp issued to celebrate the attack
I’m utterly confused:
If the Western mainstream media say it’s a false-flag operation, then I’m inclined to think it’s a Ukrainian attack.If Moscow says it’s a Ukrainian attack, I’m inclined to think it’s a Russian flag operation.
I’ll go with your 4th theory Robbie!!
The Ukrainians denied it was them, but at the same time they had a postage stamp issued to celebrate the attack
Seems to me there are three theories that have credibility and in descending order of probability:
Russian false flag to justify some other intended action
Local saboteurs, who are increasingly active e.g. train derailments
Ukraine PR stunt
Guess we’ll never know.
No strategic value for Zelensky. Whereas some strategic value for Putin.
And the FSB blew up blocks of flats in Moscow blaming Chechen rebels in late 90s to build case for what then happened.
No strategic value for Zelensky. Whereas some strategic value for Putin.
And the FSB blew up blocks of flats in Moscow blaming Chechen rebels in late 90s to build case for what then happened.
Putin wasn’t in residence at the Kremlin, and this conveniently happens. Given Ukrainian intel has prevented numerous assassination attempts targeting Zelensky and other key government figures, not to mention more obvious examples such as the Kerch Bridge, I doubt this was nothing more than a false flag from Russia.
Putin wasn’t in residence at the Kremlin, and this conveniently happens. Given Ukrainian intel has prevented numerous assassination attempts targeting Zelensky and other key government figures, not to mention more obvious examples such as the Kerch Bridge, I doubt this was nothing more than a false flag from Russia.
A good article. But the Western MSM propaganda is sounding Pravda redux. Imo this was probably the work of Ukraine intelligence.
A good article. But the Western MSM propaganda is sounding Pravda redux. Imo this was probably the work of Ukraine intelligence.
We’ll never know, but I suspect dissident Pro-War Russians as the more likely suspects.
–This embarrasses the Kremlin and makes Putin look weak.
–But it’s difficult to see how Ukraine could penetrate Russian air defences over such a huge stretch of territory.
–Also difficult to see how Kyiv could expect that a small drone strike would do anything but arouse Russians about the danger of losing this war.
–But it does highlight the fact that Russian society is far from totally mobilized, in contrast to WW2.
I would thus guess that someone who wanted to frighten Russians into accepting that defeat is a real possibility did the deed.
The list of suspects is long. But Prigozhin is near the top.
Russians adore intrigue and false flags. They often have to practice it in their daily lives, just to survive.
We’ll see much more of this as Russia unravels.
This is my belief as well. Pro-war radicals trying to push the country into a total war footing is feasible
This is my belief as well. Pro-war radicals trying to push the country into a total war footing is feasible
We’ll never know, but I suspect dissident Pro-War Russians as the more likely suspects.
–This embarrasses the Kremlin and makes Putin look weak.
–But it’s difficult to see how Ukraine could penetrate Russian air defences over such a huge stretch of territory.
–Also difficult to see how Kyiv could expect that a small drone strike would do anything but arouse Russians about the danger of losing this war.
–But it does highlight the fact that Russian society is far from totally mobilized, in contrast to WW2.
I would thus guess that someone who wanted to frighten Russians into accepting that defeat is a real possibility did the deed.
The list of suspects is long. But Prigozhin is near the top.
Russians adore intrigue and false flags. They often have to practice it in their daily lives, just to survive.
We’ll see much more of this as Russia unravels.
Ukraine was not responsible for the drones falling on the Kremlin. This is a classic Putin false flag operation designed for propaganda purposes. He is going to escalate, and per his usual modus operandi, he creates a diversion, a red herring to try to “legitimize” his next move in the ongoing horror show to to the Russian people. It’s a desperation tactic, pure and simple. The fact that the Russians have now publicly claimed that the attack was orchestrated by the United States and was an attempt to assassinate Putin ( an utterly risible claim ) is further proof of the Kremlin merely stoking the paranoia of the Russian people. “We must defend the Motherland against this brutal Western imperialism!” Borscht.
Ukraine was not responsible for the drones falling on the Kremlin. This is a classic Putin false flag operation designed for propaganda purposes. He is going to escalate, and per his usual modus operandi, he creates a diversion, a red herring to try to “legitimize” his next move in the ongoing horror show to to the Russian people. It’s a desperation tactic, pure and simple. The fact that the Russians have now publicly claimed that the attack was orchestrated by the United States and was an attempt to assassinate Putin ( an utterly risible claim ) is further proof of the Kremlin merely stoking the paranoia of the Russian people. “We must defend the Motherland against this brutal Western imperialism!” Borscht.
I just came across this analysis which I thought interesting addition to the above, same gist as above article but with a likely explanation added. ‘I don’t know how else things can escalate’ Political scientist Kirill Shamiev on the likeliest explanation for the Kremlin drone attack. Meduza
I just came across this analysis which I thought interesting addition to the above, same gist as above article but with a likely explanation added. ‘I don’t know how else things can escalate’ Political scientist Kirill Shamiev on the likeliest explanation for the Kremlin drone attack. Meduza
Members of the KRP (Club of Angry Patriots) in Russia would love to embarrass Putin–and show how poorly Russia is prosecuting the war. Girkin/Strelkov is a prominent member.
Moreover, launching two drones in the vicinity of Moscow is far easier than flying them through several layers of air defence.
The KRP realizes just how bad Russia is dong in this war–and its members want to spur the country into real action.
Members of the KRP (Club of Angry Patriots) in Russia would love to embarrass Putin–and show how poorly Russia is prosecuting the war. Girkin/Strelkov is a prominent member.
Moreover, launching two drones in the vicinity of Moscow is far easier than flying them through several layers of air defence.
The KRP realizes just how bad Russia is dong in this war–and its members want to spur the country into real action.
In an effort to drive up flagging nationalism, Eurasia drops a bomb on a busy street in one of their own cities. “It was Oceania wot did it!” And the narodnyy lyudee seeth with fervor against the enemy once again. Thank you, George Orwell, for the prequel.
In an effort to drive up flagging nationalism, Eurasia drops a bomb on a busy street in one of their own cities. “It was Oceania wot did it!” And the narodnyy lyudee seeth with fervor against the enemy once again. Thank you, George Orwell, for the prequel.