April 29, 2023 - 8:00am
While the baseline assumption was that, whatever the poll result, Recep Tayyip Erdogan would emerge from the forthcoming election the victor, Turkey’s once invincible-looking strongman is suddenly looking more mortal than ever before. Rushed off air during a live interview during the week with a rumoured heart infraction, and briefly pausing major campaign events due to undisclosed health issues, age and time may finally call a halt to a political career that personal ambition and a desire not to die in jail could have kept on the road for years yet.
Turkey’s economic miracle, largely based on grand if poorly planned construction projects, is now looking as much a disaster zone as the country’s corpse- and rubble-strewn southeast (lax building standards being a major factor in Erdogan’s dipping poll numbers). Yet even his harshest critics must acknowledge that his aggressive pursuit of Turkey’s national interest has made the country a major shaper of the new multipolar world order.
The humanitarian consequences of his invasions of Syria and Northern Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish separatists, like his crushing of a Kurdish uprising in his own country’s southeast and support for his Azerbaijani mini-me Ilham Aliyev’s brutal subjugation of the Armenians, are without doubt dire and loathsome. Similarly, in his aggressive rhetoric and sabre-rattling against his purported NATO partner Greece, which has brought France to the edge of conflict against him, Erdogan has often made the Western alliance more a source of pleasing internal tension for his frenemy Putin than a bulwark against Russia. And yet…
It is an undeniable truth that under Erdogan, Turkey has become a pioneer of power projection by middle-ranking states in a dawning multipolar order. If true multipolarity has only revealed itself through the yawning indifference of Asian nations to the war in Ukraine, and the consequent rush by America’s Middle East client-states and enemies alike to Chinese arbitration, Turkey showed itself a decade ahead of the game. Dealing with Putin like a premodern statesman, alternately courting the new tsar as an ally and openly fighting his forces in Syria (though retreating with rapped knuckles on each occasion), Erdogan hedged his relationship with his Nato overlord America to the maximum degree possible, and lived to tell the tale — even if only just.
Dealing with allies and foes alike cynically and transactionally over the course of his career, playing great powers against each other and trading concessions and sanctions from each like an inveterate gambler, Erdogan in many ways harked back to Britain’s great age of early 19th century-politics, when Britain, too, was just one middle-ranking power among many contenders for greatness.
Like his wildly successful sponsorship of Turkey’s low-cost, maximum-effect defence industry, perhaps there are lessons from his amoral and fascinating career on the world stage for us too. While it would not do for us to follow his aggressive course– and our recent wars of choice have not been successful in any case– a more transactional, cynical Britain may well become a more influential player by acting in its own self-interest now and again.
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SubscribeI don’t think Erdogan’s tactics of playing everyone against each other benefited Turkey. Yes, it made him look like a true diplomat, but what did Turkey exactly gain by playing different hands to each partner? China is still not investing significantly in Turkey, and Russia’s economic power doesn’t exist. In return, Turkey lost all its credibility in the West and it’s kicked out of major defence programs. More than half of Turkey’s trade is still with the EU. Wouldn’t it be a better deal for Turkey if Erdogan kept the relations with the EU stronger to attract more investment to the country at a time friendly close offshoring of trade is gaining momentum? Turkey is too connected to the Western financial, defence and trade system to change course. I think Britain is in a similar situation. There could be more to lose than gain for Britain by staying neutral in the US-China war.
..makes you wonder why GB doesn’t have major trade with Turkey.. esp. on fruit and veg as GB seems to be very short on those..
..makes you wonder why GB doesn’t have major trade with Turkey.. esp. on fruit and veg as GB seems to be very short on those..
I don’t think Erdogan’s tactics of playing everyone against each other benefited Turkey. Yes, it made him look like a true diplomat, but what did Turkey exactly gain by playing different hands to each partner? China is still not investing significantly in Turkey, and Russia’s economic power doesn’t exist. In return, Turkey lost all its credibility in the West and it’s kicked out of major defence programs. More than half of Turkey’s trade is still with the EU. Wouldn’t it be a better deal for Turkey if Erdogan kept the relations with the EU stronger to attract more investment to the country at a time friendly close offshoring of trade is gaining momentum? Turkey is too connected to the Western financial, defence and trade system to change course. I think Britain is in a similar situation. There could be more to lose than gain for Britain by staying neutral in the US-China war.
The British Empire and its clever double dealing undoubtedly fed into its economic success, but let’s not forget that Britain was already the so-called Workshop of the World. One could hardly say the same thing for Turkey, whose economy has triple digit inflation and which exports little except fruit and vegetables. The 50,000 and more dead in the recent earthquake is more likely to be Erdogan’s lasting legacy.
..Turkey also makes exports good quality drones!
..Turkey also makes exports good quality drones!
The British Empire and its clever double dealing undoubtedly fed into its economic success, but let’s not forget that Britain was already the so-called Workshop of the World. One could hardly say the same thing for Turkey, whose economy has triple digit inflation and which exports little except fruit and vegetables. The 50,000 and more dead in the recent earthquake is more likely to be Erdogan’s lasting legacy.
Roussinos has written some fine articles, especially about combat zones, but one gains the impression he doesn’t really understand the UK, and not just from this piece.
Quite.
“harked back to Britain’s great age of early 19th century-politics, when Britain, too, was just one middle-ranking power among many contenders for greatness.”
He’s not very strong on British history, is he ?
We’d already seen off the French as a world power (outside contentinental Europe) after the Six Years War in 1763.
I think you’ll find 1763 is in the 18th century?
I think you’ll find 1763 is in the 18th century?
Quite.
“harked back to Britain’s great age of early 19th century-politics, when Britain, too, was just one middle-ranking power among many contenders for greatness.”
He’s not very strong on British history, is he ?
We’d already seen off the French as a world power (outside contentinental Europe) after the Six Years War in 1763.
Roussinos has written some fine articles, especially about combat zones, but one gains the impression he doesn’t really understand the UK, and not just from this piece.
Erdogan punched a bit above his weight because of basic geography, nothing much else. That said that geography, given what’s happened in Ukraine and Syria v important and will be for some time yet.
However as the Article highlights it’s a v fine balance he plays between Europe/NATO, Putin and China. Putin has shown his weakness. China is harnessed to Europe because with likely trade battles with US it needs Europe’s ambiguity for it’s products and inward business and info tech investment. But that won’t last if they go for Taiwan. At that point Europe goes strongly with US. Europe has learnt Taiwan is the next Ukraine.
What does this mean for Erdogan and Turkey? The realisation that The West remains the strongest and best in the long run side with us.
Erdogan punched a bit above his weight because of basic geography, nothing much else. That said that geography, given what’s happened in Ukraine and Syria v important and will be for some time yet.
However as the Article highlights it’s a v fine balance he plays between Europe/NATO, Putin and China. Putin has shown his weakness. China is harnessed to Europe because with likely trade battles with US it needs Europe’s ambiguity for it’s products and inward business and info tech investment. But that won’t last if they go for Taiwan. At that point Europe goes strongly with US. Europe has learnt Taiwan is the next Ukraine.
What does this mean for Erdogan and Turkey? The realisation that The West remains the strongest and best in the long run side with us.
The location of the nation guides his wise motivations.
I doubt if Britain can influence any country at present (including itself!) and taking lessons from an ‘amoral’ Erdogan on setting one side against the other, with attendant dirty tricks would surely amount to teaching granny to suck eggs!
Oh please, can we stop this ridiculous petty Anglophobia you demonstrate with almost every comment you make? It isn’t acceptable the other way round (eg anti Irish comments) so.it should not be acceptable this way. At least President Zelensky saw some merit and even a certain bravery (not following the herd). Britain’s post Brexit record is patchy to say the least (albeit it happened only 3 years ago) and I have many criticisms. But every country has its problems, as France and even Germany show.
You are very generous, Andrew.
Maybe Liam can tell us what is the point of Ireland?
They are just misguided “Little English” with no real independent history and culture?
That is what he keeps telling us about Ukraine…
You are very generous, Andrew.
Maybe Liam can tell us what is the point of Ireland?
They are just misguided “Little English” with no real independent history and culture?
That is what he keeps telling us about Ukraine…
Why don’t you go and lick Putins and Xi boots (or something else).
Or dream about refuelling U-boats, like a good Finian pr**k?
Oh please, can we stop this ridiculous petty Anglophobia you demonstrate with almost every comment you make? It isn’t acceptable the other way round (eg anti Irish comments) so.it should not be acceptable this way. At least President Zelensky saw some merit and even a certain bravery (not following the herd). Britain’s post Brexit record is patchy to say the least (albeit it happened only 3 years ago) and I have many criticisms. But every country has its problems, as France and even Germany show.
Why don’t you go and lick Putins and Xi boots (or something else).
Or dream about refuelling U-boats, like a good Finian pr**k?
I doubt if Britain can influence any country at present (including itself!) and taking lessons from an ‘amoral’ Erdogan on setting one side against the other, with attendant dirty tricks would surely amount to teaching granny to suck eggs!