February 10, 2023 - 4:00pm
It is too early to know what damage Nicola Sturgeon’s trans position has caused the SNP — and, by extension, independence. Scots have forgiven her in the past, but this time things are different.
New UnHerd polling shows that, on practically every trans issue, the most ‘trans-sceptical’ constituencies are now found in Scotland. In fact, across the board, Scottish people are more trans-sceptical than English people, with a larger proportion of them disagreeing with statements including ‘It should be made easier for transgender people to change legal gender’ and ‘Transgender women should be allowed to use spaces reserved for women, such as women’s toilets or changing rooms’.
Where did it all go wrong?
Sturgeon has long been embarrassed by the regressive connotations of nationalism (she even dislikes the name ‘Scottish National Party’). She would like to be an internationalist, but can hardly do so while wanting to put an international border between Gretna and Berwick. If the parts of the UK cannot bear to live together, how can international groupings like the EU or the UN?
To compensate for the regressive element at the heart of the independence movement, Sturgeon wanted to make Scotland the most progressive part of the UK. Politically, this made some sense: Scotland remains solidly Left-wing and SNP policies on free university tuition, free prescriptions and free eye tests were popular (especially because the English had to pay for these things).
But the SNP’s attempt to change hate crime laws was less popular — not least because of the associated free speech concerns. Still, the SNP was able to push through this legislation because even if their voters disagreed, it came secondary to the independence cause.
The same was initially the case with the trans issue. There was not much in the way of a backlash when transgender identity was declared a protected characteristic in relation to hate crime. But as Sturgeon went further and further, particularly on gender self-ID, she began to lose support. This came to a head with her decision to allow trans rapists into female prisons — a decision that has now been reversed.
Sturgeon did not think that her transgender stance would win her votes, but she did not believe it would lose them either. Steadily, however, that support started to erode, before hitting rock bottom during the prison self-ID debacle.
Sturgeon may be regretting that she invested so much political capital in the trans issue. She hoped that Westminster blocking her law would anger Scots. Instead, Scots began to pay attention when they associated SNP laws on gender with rapists in women’s spaces.
It may not be enough to completely derail the SNP and its central cause, but this is a major setback. If Sturgeon goes, there is no one obvious to replace her nor lead the campaign for independence. The likely beneficiary is Scottish Labour, which if it can restore some of its previous backing can put independence beyond the SNP’s reach. However, the Party’s position on trans issues isn’t much more sensible.
Throughout her period in office, Sturgeon has believed that she is invincible. This time, however, she could well be proved devastatingly wrong.
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SubscribeScottish Labour was idiotic to vote with Sturgeon on this and Starmer was idiotic to let them.
Scottish Labour was idiotic to vote with Sturgeon on this and Starmer was idiotic to let them.
Well I hope some other woke politicians are watching and taking notes. Everyone supports progressive ideas “against hate speech” “for equity” etc right until they get examples of what those things mean in practice. There have been protests against creepy men in women’s bathrooms where I live. The fact that people are prepared to come out and protest shows that the tide is turning.
Well I hope some other woke politicians are watching and taking notes. Everyone supports progressive ideas “against hate speech” “for equity” etc right until they get examples of what those things mean in practice. There have been protests against creepy men in women’s bathrooms where I live. The fact that people are prepared to come out and protest shows that the tide is turning.
Sturgeon wanted a cause to take on Westminster. Why use the trans issue? It really is a mistake and poor political judgement.
Couldn’t agree more. I imagine future historians will be utterly baffled by her decision on this matter.
Perhaps she’s not as smart as she imagines. Someone really clever would have ensured the lead on health and education, for which Scotland was once greatly respected, was maintained in readiness for soaring ahead at independence. A one trick pony with no viable plan or future vision.
She and her clique are thick as mince and deeply crooked with it. But for years, the Whitehall State, Crown Office, Police Scotland and the servile, feeble Scottish media have been more than happy to let them get away with their corrupt misrule – hence the sense of total impunity….until now.
With Ash Regan now being nobbled from all sides in a corrupt farce of a Murrellection, Westminster will soon have its latest useful idiot in Bute House – and it looks like it might well not be Humza Useless.
I don’t think the pliable oddball Kate Forbes will last long at all – but either way, Whitehall will be laughing all the way to a Scottish Labour revival and another 60-year lease on Coulport and Faslane.
She and her clique are thick as mince and deeply crooked with it. But for years, the Whitehall State, Crown Office, Police Scotland and the servile, feeble Scottish media have been more than happy to let them get away with their corrupt misrule – hence the sense of total impunity….until now.
With Ash Regan now being nobbled from all sides in a corrupt farce of a Murrellection, Westminster will soon have its latest useful idiot in Bute House – and it looks like it might well not be Humza Useless.
I don’t think the pliable oddball Kate Forbes will last long at all – but either way, Whitehall will be laughing all the way to a Scottish Labour revival and another 60-year lease on Coulport and Faslane.
Couldn’t agree more. I imagine future historians will be utterly baffled by her decision on this matter.
Perhaps she’s not as smart as she imagines. Someone really clever would have ensured the lead on health and education, for which Scotland was once greatly respected, was maintained in readiness for soaring ahead at independence. A one trick pony with no viable plan or future vision.
Sturgeon wanted a cause to take on Westminster. Why use the trans issue? It really is a mistake and poor political judgement.
Good article. Thanks!
One point to bear in mind about the UnHerd polling: it only polled those aged at least 18. For the Scottish Parliament elections, you can vote at 16. Note from the UnHerd polling that the 18-24 year olds are the ones most supportive of Nicola’s policy. You can extrapolate that trend and be sure that the 16- and 17-year olds are even more supportive. In fact, it is about the only political issue about which they are enthused.
The tactic of winning over the youngest voters was used by Bill CLinton in the 1992 US presidential election.
Good article. Thanks!
One point to bear in mind about the UnHerd polling: it only polled those aged at least 18. For the Scottish Parliament elections, you can vote at 16. Note from the UnHerd polling that the 18-24 year olds are the ones most supportive of Nicola’s policy. You can extrapolate that trend and be sure that the 16- and 17-year olds are even more supportive. In fact, it is about the only political issue about which they are enthused.
The tactic of winning over the youngest voters was used by Bill CLinton in the 1992 US presidential election.
The First Minister attached herself to the wrong issue, runs the sub heading.
One might say she attached herself like a trans male attaching a false p***s to themselves to create a budgie bulge.
I think the voting bulge may start to wither, or remain flaccid at best.
The First Minister attached herself to the wrong issue, runs the sub heading.
One might say she attached herself like a trans male attaching a false p***s to themselves to create a budgie bulge.
I think the voting bulge may start to wither, or remain flaccid at best.
Ah, Effie is writing here now, and rightly so too as she must make.more.momey here than on her site (which I wholeheartedly recommend).
At least, unlike when she wrote for the spectator here she has not been outed 😀
Ah, Effie is writing here now, and rightly so too as she must make.more.momey here than on her site (which I wholeheartedly recommend).
At least, unlike when she wrote for the spectator here she has not been outed 😀
Any Scots Nationalist must now surely be asking themselves whether Sturgeon has been bribed to sabotage independence.
We’ve been inclined to that view for several years now, Frank. Ever since the attempt to jail Alex Salmond on fabricated and patently ridiculous charges, the MSM’s brazen collusion therein and then the selective jailing of Craig Murray – by ‘Judge’ and Sturgeon groupie Lady (sic) ‘Face Like a Slapped Arse’ Dorrian – for daring to report a few shreds of the truth.
Thank God for the jury system. No wonder the dreck who rule us want to get rid of it.
We’ve been inclined to that view for several years now, Frank. Ever since the attempt to jail Alex Salmond on fabricated and patently ridiculous charges, the MSM’s brazen collusion therein and then the selective jailing of Craig Murray – by ‘Judge’ and Sturgeon groupie Lady (sic) ‘Face Like a Slapped Arse’ Dorrian – for daring to report a few shreds of the truth.
Thank God for the jury system. No wonder the dreck who rule us want to get rid of it.
Any Scots Nationalist must now surely be asking themselves whether Sturgeon has been bribed to sabotage independence.
Pleased to see Effie Deans writing here. She has a balanced and well considered opinion. Might we have more in future, Unherd, please?
Pleased to see Effie Deans writing here. She has a balanced and well considered opinion. Might we have more in future, Unherd, please?
I dunno, but from an American POV, sitting thousands of miles away….
And granted, maps can be deceiving, but honestly, Scotland does not look big enough to be its own country or maybe more accurately, it does not look to be a country big enough to have any real influence on its own and likely to get steamrolled in foreign affairs. But then, neither does England.
As I said, I dunno, but seems to me that sticking together makes more sense from a practical point of view.
I mean, the UK, even all together really lacks the ability either economically or militarily to stand on their own. Apart? End up like the Balkans, little, defenseless countries unable to defend themselves or provide for themselves on their own and dependent on larger nations which then means doing what the larger nations want.
I had an acquantaince from Scotland who was visiting DC. I live just south of DC. He had just spent a few weeks traveling the US by car. The one thing he kept saying is just amazed he was by how big the country is. Now, he mentioned that Scotland is about the size of Rhode Island. Seemed a bit off to me, but ok. If that is the case, if it were not for the fact that Rhode Island gets 2 senators like every other state, nobody here would care in the least what the citizens there thought, they would just get steamrolled by the New York’s and Florida’s of the nation. I mean, Rhode Island is so small that people have a hard time locating it on the map.
But…I guess. If it means that much. Just not sure I see the practical value of such a thing.
It probably does look petty when viewed from a larger country . But I guess it’s the number of people that matters more that the size of the space. So although its much smaller that America the UK (pop 67M) has a larger population than Texas & California combined. Scotland at 5.5M is larger that RI, probably closer to the pop of Colorado or Virginia I’d say.
But then , I’m old enough to remember Texas threatening to leave the Union..usually when the oil price was high back in the 1970s..
The are many similarities with the Scots. (But we do love them stil!)
California population:39 million.
Texas population: 30 million.
Husband: For the last 30 years you’ve corrected everything I’ve said,
Wife: 31.
At the rate things are going, by 2030 it’ll be Texas 40 million and California 29 million (and most of them, homeless zombie addicts).
Go Woke, go broke….
At the rate things are going, by 2030 it’ll be Texas 40 million and California 29 million (and most of them, homeless zombie addicts).
Go Woke, go broke….
California population:39 million.
Texas population: 30 million.
Husband: For the last 30 years you’ve corrected everything I’ve said,
Wife: 31.
And don’t forget America’s Electoral College… enabling states who would otherwise get steamrolled to have a voice.
I’ve tried answering this, but all my replies – despite being factual and wholly inoffensive – are ‘awaiting for approval’ (sic).
Why can’t UnHerd at least use correct English? Something can be ‘waiting for approval’ or ‘awaiting approval’, but ‘awaiting FOR approval’ is pidgin English.
Daniel, Scotland needs no ‘influence in world affairs’. Chasing that vain mirage has done the UK huge harm since the 1950s.
What Scotland – like the whole UK, not to mention Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece and a host of others – needs now is democratic influence over its OWN affairs.
As for size: Scotland has a geographical size and population;ation comparable to that of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Hungary, Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand and Uruguay. It is hardly a mini-state like Panama, Lebanon, Jamaica, Luxembourg or Israel (geographically), let alone a micro-state like Lichtenstein, Malta or Andorra.
Daniel, Scotland needs no ‘influence in world affairs’. Chasing that mirage has done the UK huge harm since the 1950s. Suez, the EU, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Net Zero madness, taxpayers’ £billions squandered on ‘foreign aid’…. while our institutions and public services are in a state of collapse and our own main roads are seas of ankle-deep potholes.
What Scotland – like the whole UK, not to mention Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece and a host of others – needs now is democratic influence over its OWN affairs.
Scotland has a geographical size and population;ation comparable to that of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Hungary, Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand and Uruguay. It is hardly a mini-state like Panama, Lebanon, Jamaica, Luxembourg or Israel (geographically), let alone a micro-state like Lichtenstein, Malta or Andorra.
z
It probably does look petty when viewed from a larger country . But I guess it’s the number of people that matters more that the size of the space. So although its much smaller that America the UK (pop 67M) has a larger population than Texas & California combined. Scotland at 5.5M is larger that RI, probably closer to the pop of Colorado or Virginia I’d say.
But then , I’m old enough to remember Texas threatening to leave the Union..usually when the oil price was high back in the 1970s..
The are many similarities with the Scots. (But we do love them stil!)
And don’t forget America’s Electoral College… enabling states who would otherwise get steamrolled to have a voice.
I’ve tried answering this, but all my replies – despite being factual and wholly inoffensive – are ‘awaiting for approval’ (sic).
Why can’t UnHerd at least use correct English? Something can be ‘waiting for approval’ or ‘awaiting approval’, but ‘awaiting FOR approval’ is pidgin English.
Daniel, Scotland needs no ‘influence in world affairs’. Chasing that vain mirage has done the UK huge harm since the 1950s.
What Scotland – like the whole UK, not to mention Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece and a host of others – needs now is democratic influence over its OWN affairs.
As for size: Scotland has a geographical size and population;ation comparable to that of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Hungary, Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand and Uruguay. It is hardly a mini-state like Panama, Lebanon, Jamaica, Luxembourg or Israel (geographically), let alone a micro-state like Lichtenstein, Malta or Andorra.
Daniel, Scotland needs no ‘influence in world affairs’. Chasing that mirage has done the UK huge harm since the 1950s. Suez, the EU, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Net Zero madness, taxpayers’ £billions squandered on ‘foreign aid’…. while our institutions and public services are in a state of collapse and our own main roads are seas of ankle-deep potholes.
What Scotland – like the whole UK, not to mention Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece and a host of others – needs now is democratic influence over its OWN affairs.
Scotland has a geographical size and population;ation comparable to that of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Hungary, Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand and Uruguay. It is hardly a mini-state like Panama, Lebanon, Jamaica, Luxembourg or Israel (geographically), let alone a micro-state like Lichtenstein, Malta or Andorra.
z
I dunno, but from an American POV, sitting thousands of miles away….
And granted, maps can be deceiving, but honestly, Scotland does not look big enough to be its own country or maybe more accurately, it does not look to be a country big enough to have any real influence on its own and likely to get steamrolled in foreign affairs. But then, neither does England.
As I said, I dunno, but seems to me that sticking together makes more sense from a practical point of view.
I mean, the UK, even all together really lacks the ability either economically or militarily to stand on their own. Apart? End up like the Balkans, little, defenseless countries unable to defend themselves or provide for themselves on their own and dependent on larger nations which then means doing what the larger nations want.
I had an acquantaince from Scotland who was visiting DC. I live just south of DC. He had just spent a few weeks traveling the US by car. The one thing he kept saying is just amazed he was by how big the country is. Now, he mentioned that Scotland is about the size of Rhode Island. Seemed a bit off to me, but ok. If that is the case, if it were not for the fact that Rhode Island gets 2 senators like every other state, nobody here would care in the least what the citizens there thought, they would just get steamrolled by the New York’s and Florida’s of the nation. I mean, Rhode Island is so small that people have a hard time locating it on the map.
But…I guess. If it means that much. Just not sure I see the practical value of such a thing.
Scots are weird. Sorry, but it needed saying. A man is a man, and a woman is a woman. Here’s a riddle: if you call a tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have? Answer: Four. Calling a tail a leg doesn’t make it so.
Scottish Labour – like the LibDems and the Greens – voted right along with Murrell-Sturgescu on rapist self-ID. The only opposition from the political class has come from the Scottish Tories and the genuine Scottish Nationalists at Alba and the ISP.