February 10, 2023 - 10:04am
Picture the scene. A by-election, fighting over a Brexit-voting seat in the north west of England. A reshuffle, caused by a ministerial scandal. The Supreme Court, ruling on the Northern Ireland Protocol. And Westminster following Boris Johnson around, at one moment analysing his personal finances and the next wondering about his relationship with a visiting foreign leader. This sounds like a standard week in the high-octane Johnson era of British politics.
But all that happened this week. In case you missed it, the West Lancashire by-election went off with barely any national interest — Labour boosting their safe majority with a regulatory 10% swing to the Opposition on a dismal 31% turnout. A competent but achingly dull reshuffle went almost completely unnoticed beyond SW1. And from Brexit to arms for Ukraine, Rishi Sunak sits there — a prisoner of the decisions and character of his predecessor-but-one.
It is unlikely to be long before Conservative MPs begin to think that Sunak’s listless leadership and his party’s flatlining polling might be interlinked. The set of local elections due to come in May is widely viewed as a possible pinch-point, where several councils (including West Lancashire) look likely to be captured by the Labour Party. Yet the ballots counted in Burscough, Lancashire last night, consistent with a Labour majority and a swing at the next election roughly equivalent to 1997, is evidence enough that most of the 11 Tory MPs in the Red Rose county will be lucky to have a seat at the next election.
The question for the Conservative party — which tried Boris, then gave Barmy a brief go before settling on Boring — is where it can go next. Tory grandees suggest the party should troop on and hope that economic recovery cures Tory ills. Another answer, unlikely but not impossible, is that MPs with nowhere left to turn may look to complete the circle of the last 12 months of British politics. Among those present in Westminster on Wednesday, it was not just Volodymyr Zelenskyy who may have wished that Johnson rather than Sunak were still sitting in Number 10.
Prompted by the results in West Lancashire last night is the question: what should parties do when they know they are about to fall to spectacular defeat? The answer may well be rolling the dice. The Tories were around seven points behind the opposition when Johnson left Downing Street. That deficit stretched, and has now settled, at more than 20 points. If there is no narrowing of the polls, and the countdown to the election begins with meltdown imminent, panic could quickly set in.
The truth is that this could not just be the most emotional decision, but the most rational one too. Indeed, the key barrier could be not whether Johnson is able to mount a comeback, but instead whether he wants to. We may have to stop looking back at the more dramatic ‘Johnson era’ of British politics. After all, we might still be living in it.
DrAlanWager
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SubscribeThe Party could always adopt more popular policies. It’s called politics.
Or actually do some of the things it promised to do.
Boris promises much, lies continuously and does not deliver.
He has left the Union in tatters, after his disastrous leadership.
The most worrying thing is that the Conservative and aniti-unionist party have not learnt the lesson….. today they still continue to cause damage…..eg NI Protocol and refusal to respect the fundamentals of the GFA.
Helping Ukraine with lots of publicity does not counter the anger growing in Scotland and Northern Ireland due to the English only, anti-Union policies.
Boris promises much, lies continuously and does not deliver.
He has left the Union in tatters, after his disastrous leadership.
The most worrying thing is that the Conservative and aniti-unionist party have not learnt the lesson….. today they still continue to cause damage…..eg NI Protocol and refusal to respect the fundamentals of the GFA.
Helping Ukraine with lots of publicity does not counter the anger growing in Scotland and Northern Ireland due to the English only, anti-Union policies.
Or actually do some of the things it promised to do.
The Party could always adopt more popular policies. It’s called politics.
If the Tories implemented some of the policies they were voted in on like reducing immigration to the tens of thousands it wouldn’t matter even if Larry the cat was their leader. Conversely Churchill’s ghost could be in post and still probably wouldn’t help their numbers. They have nothing to show for 13 years of rule.
Only if you assume that their pledges were authentic.
On the other hand, they have a lot to show if their purpose was a bait and switch.
Nothing to show? The rich have got richer, haven’t they? Job done!
Only if you assume that their pledges were authentic.
On the other hand, they have a lot to show if their purpose was a bait and switch.
Nothing to show? The rich have got richer, haven’t they? Job done!
If the Tories implemented some of the policies they were voted in on like reducing immigration to the tens of thousands it wouldn’t matter even if Larry the cat was their leader. Conversely Churchill’s ghost could be in post and still probably wouldn’t help their numbers. They have nothing to show for 13 years of rule.
Who cares who leads the Conservatives if they can’t implement conservative policies.
Who cares who leads the Conservatives if they can’t implement conservative policies.
On a 31.36% turnout, nothing can be said with any confidence about what this might mean on a bigger scale.
I think it says a lot about the level of voter disenfranchisement.
I think it says a lot about the level of voter disenfranchisement.
On a 31.36% turnout, nothing can be said with any confidence about what this might mean on a bigger scale.
Describing Bring Back Boris as a rational decision rams home just how desperate the Tories’ position actually is.
Describing Bring Back Boris as a rational decision rams home just how desperate the Tories’ position actually is.
The answer post-Boris was and is Kemi Badenoch.
(It’s a pity the hapless Tory MPs preferred Buggins’ turn).
Indeed, but she’d be better keeping out of it until after the electoral drubbing. That way she could almost start with a clean slate making it much easier to set the course of the party
By which time it will be far too late – WEF shills will have completed their task of enslaving us and selling us down the river Styx.
By which time it will be far too late – WEF shills will have completed their task of enslaving us and selling us down the river Styx.
Indeed, but she’d be better keeping out of it until after the electoral drubbing. That way she could almost start with a clean slate making it much easier to set the course of the party
The answer post-Boris was and is Kemi Badenoch.
(It’s a pity the hapless Tory MPs preferred Buggins’ turn).
The majority of Tory MPs just aren’t Conservatives – Caroline Nokes, Roger Gale, Steven Hammond, Maria Miller etc, etc.
The majority of Tory MPs just aren’t Conservatives – Caroline Nokes, Roger Gale, Steven Hammond, Maria Miller etc, etc.
Our version of a fly blown latin american republic left wing dictator: the man should be in jail for treason. Arguably the worst, most clinically dishonest, self serving manipulative lazy PM we have ever had.
No that was Blair who destroyed our democracy by lying and taking power from elected representatives and giving it to the blob by creating “executive agencies” and then protecting them by law
Labour will come to regret what they have done
No that was Blair who destroyed our democracy by lying and taking power from elected representatives and giving it to the blob by creating “executive agencies” and then protecting them by law
Labour will come to regret what they have done
Our version of a fly blown latin american republic left wing dictator: the man should be in jail for treason. Arguably the worst, most clinically dishonest, self serving manipulative lazy PM we have ever had.
Death Wish 2023, “Bring Back Boris”
Or Carry On Down the Polls ‘Rishak’
Or The Return of the Musketeers ‘Truss’
Or Carry On Down the Polls ‘Rishak’
Or The Return of the Musketeers ‘Truss’
Death Wish 2023, “Bring Back Boris”
Compared to the sort of swings Labour were achieving in by-elections under Blair between 1994 and 1997, 10% is modest enough. But that says more about the lack of enthusiasm for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Relative to the number of votes cast for them in West Lancashire in 2019, the Conservatives got 70% of the way to no votes at all. Having schemed against and undermined two Conservative leaders to become PM, Rishi doesn’t even seem to want to lead, and can hardly complain that the voters now see the Conservatives as divided, incompetent and duplicitous.
Compared to the sort of swings Labour were achieving in by-elections under Blair between 1994 and 1997, 10% is modest enough. But that says more about the lack of enthusiasm for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Relative to the number of votes cast for them in West Lancashire in 2019, the Conservatives got 70% of the way to no votes at all. Having schemed against and undermined two Conservative leaders to become PM, Rishi doesn’t even seem to want to lead, and can hardly complain that the voters now see the Conservatives as divided, incompetent and duplicitous.
Boris will go down in history as the PM that started to dismantle and destroy the Union. The antithesis of Churchill, his hero.
The Conservative and anti-unionist party are destroying the UK by totally ignoring everyone except the English voters, to the complete detriment of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Look at the NI Protocol….. Not only did Boris agree to foreign laws and courts to be imposed on a UK region; now the Conservative and anti-Unionist party are totally disrespecting the fundamental principles in the GFA….. consent, cross community power SHARING and Union safeguards made in 1998 …. The Supreme court ruling this week is the smoking gun and the word’s by the NI SoS Heaton Harris are the ‘explicit photographs’ of them committing the immoral crimes.
One of the worst, self centered individuals with anti- Union behaviour is Simon Hoare …. He continually tries to dictate what the NI people should do ….. We don’t need your dictatorial, anti- Union lectures and threats to remove our elected representatives (40% of the population!). Your pompous, over estimated view of yourself is exceedingly dangerous in a fragile tinderbox environment. You should be replaced very quickly, to limit the damage you do in the future.
Brandon Lewis was also either very stupid or thought the NI Unionists were total imbeciles. For months he had the brass neck to stand up on TV and state that there was no border in the Irish sea to enforce EU laws on NI. Don’t buy a used car off this individual or Boris or Hoare.
The Scots should take this latest court ruling as a concrete example to be held up as proof that the Conservatory and anti- Unionist party have a strategy to dictate to the ‘plebs’ in the non- English regions.
The Union is now being actively dismantled by the Tory’s…… this strategy can only create trouble for the complete UK.
Boris will go down in history as the PM that started to dismantle and destroy the Union. The antithesis of Churchill, his hero.
The Conservative and anti-unionist party are destroying the UK by totally ignoring everyone except the English voters, to the complete detriment of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Look at the NI Protocol….. Not only did Boris agree to foreign laws and courts to be imposed on a UK region; now the Conservative and anti-Unionist party are totally disrespecting the fundamental principles in the GFA….. consent, cross community power SHARING and Union safeguards made in 1998 …. The Supreme court ruling this week is the smoking gun and the word’s by the NI SoS Heaton Harris are the ‘explicit photographs’ of them committing the immoral crimes.
One of the worst, self centered individuals with anti- Union behaviour is Simon Hoare …. He continually tries to dictate what the NI people should do ….. We don’t need your dictatorial, anti- Union lectures and threats to remove our elected representatives (40% of the population!). Your pompous, over estimated view of yourself is exceedingly dangerous in a fragile tinderbox environment. You should be replaced very quickly, to limit the damage you do in the future.
Brandon Lewis was also either very stupid or thought the NI Unionists were total imbeciles. For months he had the brass neck to stand up on TV and state that there was no border in the Irish sea to enforce EU laws on NI. Don’t buy a used car off this individual or Boris or Hoare.
The Scots should take this latest court ruling as a concrete example to be held up as proof that the Conservatory and anti- Unionist party have a strategy to dictate to the ‘plebs’ in the non- English regions.
The Union is now being actively dismantled by the Tory’s…… this strategy can only create trouble for the complete UK.
Disregarding to po faced and sanctimonious who spend their time slating BoJo about cake nonsense, if he were to make a comeback and actually address some of the concerns…a free ticket for anyone who’d deal with immigration, postpone net zero and take on the left. There are glimmers, Jared O’Mara in jail for 4 years, EV cars, an expensive disaster for all except those with off street parking and never leave home very far. The inhumanity of Cobalt, Nickel and Lithium mining (how quiet is Greta?) surely a topic for the fervent socialists with slavery and exploitation already high on their agenda?
Disregarding to po faced and sanctimonious who spend their time slating BoJo about cake nonsense, if he were to make a comeback and actually address some of the concerns…a free ticket for anyone who’d deal with immigration, postpone net zero and take on the left. There are glimmers, Jared O’Mara in jail for 4 years, EV cars, an expensive disaster for all except those with off street parking and never leave home very far. The inhumanity of Cobalt, Nickel and Lithium mining (how quiet is Greta?) surely a topic for the fervent socialists with slavery and exploitation already high on their agenda?
What a sorry state of affairs for the Right.
Moral of the story – keep getting excited by manipulators chucking you red meat to get into office you end up here.
What a sorry state of affairs for the Right.
Moral of the story – keep getting excited by manipulators chucking you red meat to get into office you end up here.
That awful Boris. Let’s have a child groomer apologist instead.
That awful Boris. Let’s have a child groomer apologist instead.