January 24, 2023 - 4:23pm
This may be the year that we see a great divergence take place in the global economy and markets. As investors and commentators in Europe and America fret about a recession, those who look east towards China see the opportunity for robust economic growth. After the Chinese government lifted its Zero Covid policies, forecasters now expect to see annual GDP growth march forward at over 5%.
Markets are buying into the narrative too, with huge capital inflows already flooding Chinese stock markets. This is happening at the same time as investors managing pension funds and other big pools of capital pull out of American stocks that they have been in since 2005. Evidently, Beijing is expecting plenty more capital to flow in throughout 2023, with government officials saying that they anticipate a “steady and continuous” stream of capital into the country.
The Chinese economy looks a lot different today from how it did in the past. Since the pandemic, China has pivoted its export base away from the wealthy economies to the poorer developing ones. Between 2019 and 2022 Chinese exports to developing economies almost doubled, and now rival its exports to developed economies. “This is by far the most important event in the world economy since the rise of China,” writes former Wall Street economist David Goldman.
Taken together, these seem like enormous developments. China has managed to diversify its economy in such a way that it seems unthreatened by a recession in the developed world. That is a remarkable achievement, but it could also have political and economic consequences among the most economically comfortable countries. For one, Chinese prosperity no longer requires exports to the West. China has, for all intents and purposes, become a truly independent growth model.
There are still some risks on the horizon for the Chinese economy. The property sector remains on shaky ground and commentators are predicting the imminent collapse of the market and the national banking system. If property prices and investment ever fell and the Chinese government let the financial system go into free fall, the country would experience a crisis much like what the West went through in 2007-08.
But there is good reason to think that the Chinese government has this under control. It dealt successfully with a similar burst bubble in the late ’90s, and it looks set to deal with it again. Besides, those predicting a crash in the Chinese property market have been wrong for nearly two decades. I should know — I was one.
As capital flows into China, the financial sector in the developed world faces mass layoffs. Banks are preparing for the largest round of job cuts since the financial crisis of 2007-08. Financiers are a notoriously mobile bunch. With many of them facing the dole queue, is there a chance that some might follow the money and go to China? It’s a long way down the line, but not out of the question.
It is unclear what new world emerges from these trends. But to have one half of the global economy tipping into recession and the other expecting high growth is extremely unusual. The consequences could be even more so.
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional, and the author of The Reformation in Economics
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Subscribe“Between 2019 and 2022 Chinese exports to developing economies almost doubled, and now rival its exports to developed economies.”
This is an interesting statement and possibly a significant one. I wish the author added some numbers and context to it. What exactly does rival mean? And what are the exports? I doubt it’s consumer goods.
Basically, Chinese factories are assembling their Chinese manufactured parts in other developing countries. This is done to overcome other developing countries’ regulations and import duty on assembled goods. For example, Chinese phone manufactures are now assembling their mobile phones in India for the Indian and MEA market. The components of these phones are manufactured in China.
Basically, Chinese factories are assembling their Chinese manufactured parts in other developing countries. This is done to overcome other developing countries’ regulations and import duty on assembled goods. For example, Chinese phone manufactures are now assembling their mobile phones in India for the Indian and MEA market. The components of these phones are manufactured in China.
“Between 2019 and 2022 Chinese exports to developing economies almost doubled, and now rival its exports to developed economies.”
This is an interesting statement and possibly a significant one. I wish the author added some numbers and context to it. What exactly does rival mean? And what are the exports? I doubt it’s consumer goods.
“…With many of them facing the dole queue, is there a chance that some might follow the money and go to China?…”
They might. As might economists from Ireland!
“…With many of them facing the dole queue, is there a chance that some might follow the money and go to China?…”
They might. As might economists from Ireland!
Are you serious? Our Money-Lenders flee to China, whatever next!
However if ‘they’ go, I trust they will recall that the Chinese have a propensity for executing financial malefactors in Football Stadiums. Something sadly we studiously refuse to do, despite the enormity of the damage ‘they’ have inflicted upon us in recent years,
As long as Andrew Bailey doesn’t join the exodus, the Chinese economy should be OK.
As long as Andrew Bailey doesn’t join the exodus, the Chinese economy should be OK.
Are you serious? Our Money-Lenders flee to China, whatever next!
However if ‘they’ go, I trust they will recall that the Chinese have a propensity for executing financial malefactors in Football Stadiums. Something sadly we studiously refuse to do, despite the enormity of the damage ‘they’ have inflicted upon us in recent years,
Not so sure, esp about Financiers relocating.
Were you pondering this you might want to pause and consider – the most techno-totalitarian state ever; the greatest ever degree of mass personal surveillance; a likely South China sea confrontation after Taiwan elections in 24 – and the mother of all recessions to follow; the fact the West is awaking from it’s slumber about the degree of infiltration and technological theft into and from it’s companies, it’s institutions, it’s Universities, and via a constant campaign of social media driven mis-information to sow division and discord – and as the West awakens we will start to slam these doors including penalties for those supporting the CCP regime in their business dealings; the thought of a cell next to Jimmy Lai and many Hong Kong folks who had done nothing wrong with no legal redress; the coming demographic timebomb, and just to keep it cheerful – the next pandemic.
Not much selling it for me, but there will be some no doubt.
Not so sure, esp about Financiers relocating.
Were you pondering this you might want to pause and consider – the most techno-totalitarian state ever; the greatest ever degree of mass personal surveillance; a likely South China sea confrontation after Taiwan elections in 24 – and the mother of all recessions to follow; the fact the West is awaking from it’s slumber about the degree of infiltration and technological theft into and from it’s companies, it’s institutions, it’s Universities, and via a constant campaign of social media driven mis-information to sow division and discord – and as the West awakens we will start to slam these doors including penalties for those supporting the CCP regime in their business dealings; the thought of a cell next to Jimmy Lai and many Hong Kong folks who had done nothing wrong with no legal redress; the coming demographic timebomb, and just to keep it cheerful – the next pandemic.
Not much selling it for me, but there will be some no doubt.
More foolish short termist investors who’ll get found out when Xi escalates his threats to Taiwan.