July 19, 2022 - 3:25pm
We’ve had two pieces of information in the past hour on who will be the next prime minister. First, Kemi Badenoch is out — after an extraordinarily successful campaign, leaving Rishi Sunak to face either Liz Truss or Penny Mordaunt. Second, the poll of Conservative party members that matters most, YouGov, has been re-run and the results are very different to last week.
It reveals that the membership are making up their minds day by day on the candidates they will shortly be asked to consider. The commanding lead Penny Mordaunt had over all her rivals last week has been lost — she now trails both Liz Truss (and Kemi Badenoch, as it happens) in direct head-to-heads. The question of whether the polling triggered the massive anti-Penny campaign in the Right-leaning media will never be answered, but either way it seems to have worked.
What has not changed since last week, however, is that Rishi Sunak currently loses to both Truss and Mordaunt. And by a healthy margin. Of course he might gradually win them over in the long forthcoming campaign, but this is a big mountain to climb. It seems a fair working assumption that he will lose to whomever he is put up against. The betting markets certainly seem to have concluded as much, with Truss rushing into the favourite position within minutes:
Liz Truss now odds-on favourite in the CON leadership betting – https://t.co/oRO4T2Ej0s https://t.co/ESjcCXxdgL pic.twitter.com/wFMh2jvCvd
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2022
This makes the decision of the next 48 hours all the more important for Conservative MPs. Who would you be content, even if not overjoyed, to see as prime minister? You should do whatever you can to make sure it is that person on the ballot alongside Sunak.
Freddie Sayers is the Editor-in-Chief & CEO of UnHerd. He was previously Editor-in-Chief of YouGov, and founder of PoliticsHome.
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SubscribeIf Liz Truss is the answer, then you are asking the wrong question.
Also not convinced by Mordaunt. I can understand why people don’t like Sunak but out of the three, he is by far the most convincing and professional.
Agreed. I’m not enthusiastic about Sunak, he is a tad unctuous, but of the ones left he is the best bet. With my tecchie/engineer hat on it’s a question of risk mitigation – who can repeatedly execute the best risk management amongst potentially multiple unpalatable options. The UK is a first tier western nation, and as such not the type of country that can afford someone who will jog along and then suddenly make one catastrophic error. While Truss will be ok on foreign policy, I’m less than convinced she can navigate a very difficult economic landscape upcoming. I wouldn’t be confident with Mourdant on either foreign policy or economic management. Having said that, Sunak gives all the indications of a high quality technocrat and nothing more – I see no longer term vision at all.
Whichever female is PM she will put Sunak (some some other competent bean counter) in as CotE thereby plugging that gap. Sometimes a good leader is one who listens rather than dominate – Mordaunt is more likely to do that: Lix Truss is a loose cannon!
Anyone but Mordaunt, thank you very much.
Ah: what’s wrong with Penny then? She’s easily the prettiest!
Personally I think Sunak will end up winning. He is just more polished than Liz Truss and the two are not actually far apart politically (despite what the commentators say).
Shame about Kemi though. She would have been the start of something new and good I think. Her time will come, I’m sure.
As to Starmer, he seems evenly matched with Rishi and Liz, so we will see what happens at the next GE.
If the economy tanks, and it will, the next GE be a “no contest”. But just to be on the safe side I’m hoping it’ll be Liz Truss: she’ll surely wreck the economy!
If Sunak appoints Badenoch to a very senior cabinet position, the best result will be achieved
..especially if she’s put in charge of the new part of a divided Treasury as she proposed herself, ie the one that promotes development and growth.
Sunak wins and it’s CBDC incoming. Closely followed by social credit system. Truss wins and it’s war with Russia. Choose your poison! The end result is the same!
..and either way the economy goes down the toilet! So much to look forward to if you want to live in “interesting times”..
You must be joking!! Liz Truss is a lightweight. I am not a member of any political party but I am sure Conservative members will not find Liz Truss Prime Minister material.
Clear evidence of vote skullduggery I think? Sunak fancies his chances more against Truss than Mordaunt so he has lent her votes. It would serve him right if the two women now ended up shunting him aside! As a Labour supporter I’m rooting for Liz Truss: she’ll make rhe Tories unelectable fir a generation! Yipee!