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J Bryant
J Bryant
1 year ago

A very interesting and persuasive article, but I certainly hope the author is wrong about Trump being the Republican candidate in 2024. I believe Trump’s moment has passed and he is now too polarizing to lead the Republicans to victory. A Trump candidacy is what the Dems are praying for.
My money is still on DeSantis, although the next year and a half is a political lifetime. Anything could happen to tarnish DeSantis’s brand. Haley’s problem is she’s has no consistent platform or loyalty. As summarized in the article, she blows with the prevailing wind. That will minimize the number of enemies, but I’m not sure it inspires a strong base of support. But Haley is relatively young. A 2024 run might be no more than practice for a 2028 run.

Paul Hendricks
Paul Hendricks
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

I do not believe Trump’s moment has passed. The GOP is now increasingly “Trumpian.” The other strong candidate, DeSantis, is Trumpian.

It’s unpredictable of course, but, when I try to imagine the Trump/DeSantis showdown, I just can’t help but see Trump getting the better of our hard-working friend in the Sunshine State. Watered-down MAGA is no substitute for the real thing.

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
1 year ago
Reply to  Paul Hendricks

Clearly for you belief doesn’t have to be supported by evidence of any kind! Trump managed to stop in its tracks the ‘red wave’ during the midterms. He didn’t win the popular vote on any occasion that he stood for election. Why should that be an impossible bar for this apparently incredible president? The Democrats are well aware of this by the way, which is why they have sometimes given support extreme pro Trump candidates.

Of course his supporters adore him – though less so then in his heyday. But every single Democrat in the United States, plus a significant fraction of Republicans, utterly loathes him. The faith place in Trump is quite extraordinary, despite his endless betrayal of supposed allies, his entirely transactional relationship to politics, and the fact that he achieved so little in office in his own terms. Quite obviously the main cause that Trump supports is himself!

He has absolutely no chance of winning in 2024, what’s a not insignificant chance of splitting the Republicans and putting them out of power for a generation.

Last edited 1 year ago by Andrew Fisher
JR Stoker
JR Stoker
1 year ago
Reply to  Andrew Fisher

Spot on! Trump is loathed by too many voters to win. He was not such a bad president as many had expected, but his behaviour on 6th January makes him in many eyes unfit for office, and the Democrats will use those events over and over in the 2024 campaign. Which even Biden will win if the GOP candidate is Trump.

The Republicans need a moderate uniting candidate who will not frighten the horses and will see off the extreme Democrats or the senile Biden. A Reagan for our times. There are several out there. None called “Trump”!

Kat L
Kat L
1 year ago
Reply to  JR Stoker

We’ve had moderates; they pay lip service to the base to get elected and ignore them once in office. Feckless and loathesome. They stand for nothing but war, tax cuts for the rich, and unfettered immigration. I want them pushed out to join the dems with whom they agree on almost everything.

JR Stoker
JR Stoker
1 year ago
Reply to  Kat L

I can’t think of anybody who stands for that bizarre combination

JR Stoker
JR Stoker
1 year ago
Reply to  Kat L

I can’t think of anybody who stands for that bizarre combination

Kat L
Kat L
1 year ago
Reply to  JR Stoker

We’ve had moderates; they pay lip service to the base to get elected and ignore them once in office. Feckless and loathesome. They stand for nothing but war, tax cuts for the rich, and unfettered immigration. I want them pushed out to join the dems with whom they agree on almost everything.

JR Stoker
JR Stoker
1 year ago
Reply to  Andrew Fisher

Spot on! Trump is loathed by too many voters to win. He was not such a bad president as many had expected, but his behaviour on 6th January makes him in many eyes unfit for office, and the Democrats will use those events over and over in the 2024 campaign. Which even Biden will win if the GOP candidate is Trump.

The Republicans need a moderate uniting candidate who will not frighten the horses and will see off the extreme Democrats or the senile Biden. A Reagan for our times. There are several out there. None called “Trump”!

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
1 year ago
Reply to  Paul Hendricks

Clearly for you belief doesn’t have to be supported by evidence of any kind! Trump managed to stop in its tracks the ‘red wave’ during the midterms. He didn’t win the popular vote on any occasion that he stood for election. Why should that be an impossible bar for this apparently incredible president? The Democrats are well aware of this by the way, which is why they have sometimes given support extreme pro Trump candidates.

Of course his supporters adore him – though less so then in his heyday. But every single Democrat in the United States, plus a significant fraction of Republicans, utterly loathes him. The faith place in Trump is quite extraordinary, despite his endless betrayal of supposed allies, his entirely transactional relationship to politics, and the fact that he achieved so little in office in his own terms. Quite obviously the main cause that Trump supports is himself!

He has absolutely no chance of winning in 2024, what’s a not insignificant chance of splitting the Republicans and putting them out of power for a generation.

Last edited 1 year ago by Andrew Fisher
Elliott Bjorn
Elliott Bjorn
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

MAGA!

and

Ultra MAGA!

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
1 year ago
Reply to  Elliott Bjorn

Ultra pillock!

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
1 year ago
Reply to  Elliott Bjorn

Ultra pillock!

Brian Villanueva
Brian Villanueva
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Trump uses Twitter to own the libs.
DeSantis uses power to stop the libs.
Trump provided the alternative to Bush neocon ideology. But, as the author says, he outsourced his administration to the very people he campaigned against in the primary. Now that Trump has blazed the trail though, DeSantis can use his governing experience to actually enact policy.

M Lux
M Lux
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

I agree with you on DeSantis and the timeframe leaving plenty of possibilities open, but I suspect he will turn out to be something of a sheep in wolves clothing even if he wins – i.e. make all the right sounds on the campaign trail, but be completely acquiescent to the (deep state) establishment once he’s in office.
This happened to Trump who, love him or hate him, was loathed in Washington for the chaos he brought to the proceedings in (the real) government.
Alas I don’t think the American election process is even capable of producing anyone willing to change the system. As an example, look at what they did to Sanders, first they sabotaged him, later they co-opted him and now he is just another shill for the democrats.

Bob Ewald
Bob Ewald
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Republicans have a bigger problem: globalism, neoliberalism & neoconservatism have led us into disasters. Wasted lives & money fighting wars for democracy in a region that is steeped in anything but democracy. Dependence on China for vital supplies. Etc. What is required, I suggest, is a return to fundamental conservatism.

Johann Strauss
Johann Strauss
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Two things. First Haley is not running to be the Presidential nominee but the VP nominee. She stands absolutely zero chance. Second, there is no way that Trump is going to be the nominee. He is way too old, and his time has passed. He is no longer the right person and he elicits sufficient antagonism from suburbanites (especially women) that even if he is the nominee he will loose the general election, just as he lost in 2020 to a senile democrat who stayed in his basement for essentially the whole campaign and could attract at best 20 people, most of whom were in his entourage, to the few so-called rallies/campaign stops that he held. The only realistic candidate with an excellent chance of winning is De Santis. Not only that, he has proven that he can govern, and he knows how to deal with people in the administrative state and bureaucracy.

Paul Hendricks
Paul Hendricks
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

I do not believe Trump’s moment has passed. The GOP is now increasingly “Trumpian.” The other strong candidate, DeSantis, is Trumpian.

It’s unpredictable of course, but, when I try to imagine the Trump/DeSantis showdown, I just can’t help but see Trump getting the better of our hard-working friend in the Sunshine State. Watered-down MAGA is no substitute for the real thing.

Elliott Bjorn
Elliott Bjorn
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

MAGA!

and

Ultra MAGA!

Brian Villanueva
Brian Villanueva
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Trump uses Twitter to own the libs.
DeSantis uses power to stop the libs.
Trump provided the alternative to Bush neocon ideology. But, as the author says, he outsourced his administration to the very people he campaigned against in the primary. Now that Trump has blazed the trail though, DeSantis can use his governing experience to actually enact policy.

M Lux
M Lux
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

I agree with you on DeSantis and the timeframe leaving plenty of possibilities open, but I suspect he will turn out to be something of a sheep in wolves clothing even if he wins – i.e. make all the right sounds on the campaign trail, but be completely acquiescent to the (deep state) establishment once he’s in office.
This happened to Trump who, love him or hate him, was loathed in Washington for the chaos he brought to the proceedings in (the real) government.
Alas I don’t think the American election process is even capable of producing anyone willing to change the system. As an example, look at what they did to Sanders, first they sabotaged him, later they co-opted him and now he is just another shill for the democrats.

Bob Ewald
Bob Ewald
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Republicans have a bigger problem: globalism, neoliberalism & neoconservatism have led us into disasters. Wasted lives & money fighting wars for democracy in a region that is steeped in anything but democracy. Dependence on China for vital supplies. Etc. What is required, I suggest, is a return to fundamental conservatism.

Johann Strauss
Johann Strauss
1 year ago
Reply to  J Bryant

Two things. First Haley is not running to be the Presidential nominee but the VP nominee. She stands absolutely zero chance. Second, there is no way that Trump is going to be the nominee. He is way too old, and his time has passed. He is no longer the right person and he elicits sufficient antagonism from suburbanites (especially women) that even if he is the nominee he will loose the general election, just as he lost in 2020 to a senile democrat who stayed in his basement for essentially the whole campaign and could attract at best 20 people, most of whom were in his entourage, to the few so-called rallies/campaign stops that he held. The only realistic candidate with an excellent chance of winning is De Santis. Not only that, he has proven that he can govern, and he knows how to deal with people in the administrative state and bureaucracy.

J Bryant
J Bryant
1 year ago

A very interesting and persuasive article, but I certainly hope the author is wrong about Trump being the Republican candidate in 2024. I believe Trump’s moment has passed and he is now too polarizing to lead the Republicans to victory. A Trump candidacy is what the Dems are praying for.
My money is still on DeSantis, although the next year and a half is a political lifetime. Anything could happen to tarnish DeSantis’s brand. Haley’s problem is she’s has no consistent platform or loyalty. As summarized in the article, she blows with the prevailing wind. That will minimize the number of enemies, but I’m not sure it inspires a strong base of support. But Haley is relatively young. A 2024 run might be no more than practice for a 2028 run.

Paul Hendricks
Paul Hendricks
1 year ago

The article contains more about Nikki Haley than I think anyone will ever need to know. But it gets one thing right: “George W. Bush-era” Republicanism is gone, and it ain’t coming back.

Bob Ewald
Bob Ewald
1 year ago
Reply to  Paul Hendricks

Nor should it

Bob Ewald
Bob Ewald
1 year ago
Reply to  Paul Hendricks

Nor should it

Paul Hendricks
Paul Hendricks
1 year ago

The article contains more about Nikki Haley than I think anyone will ever need to know. But it gets one thing right: “George W. Bush-era” Republicanism is gone, and it ain’t coming back.

Cho Jinn
Cho Jinn
1 year ago

Unless and until a handful of swing counties can be made to have something resembling a clear, coherent, and legal ballot registration and tallying program, none of it matters. The onus is on local officials; the rest is WWE.

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
1 year ago
Reply to  Cho Jinn

What about, you know, aiming at actually winning the popular vote, something the Republicans haven’t achieved in a Presidential election since 2004?

On that basis Trump has never won a single election – he was millions of votes behind, despite apparently being the most beloved President in history, at least according to his largely deluded fan base.

Trump being the candidate in 2024 is a sure fire way to defeat for the Republicans – he after all reduced the mid term ‘red wave’ to a ‘red ripple’.

Last edited 1 year ago by Andrew Fisher
Michael Sharon
Michael Sharon
1 year ago
Reply to  Andrew Fisher

Presidents aren’t elected by popular vote, as much as Democrats may wish otherwise. Biden’s 7 million vote margin can be entirely accounted for by the large margins he ran up in ultra-blue California and New York. MAGA Republicanism remains very competitive under the US Federal system.

Last edited 1 year ago by Michael Sharon
Kat L
Kat L
1 year ago
Reply to  Andrew Fisher

He did win the popular vote in all the states that mattered for the election. He lost by less than 40k in the deciding states for the presidency. Low information voters and media demonization won the midterms; fetterman over success story surgeon oz? A dead democrat also won re-election over his challenger.

M Blanc
M Blanc
1 year ago
Reply to  Kat L

“Success story surgeon”, maybe, but Turkish citizen.

M Blanc
M Blanc
1 year ago
Reply to  Kat L

“Success story surgeon”, maybe, but Turkish citizen.

Michael Sharon
Michael Sharon
1 year ago
Reply to  Andrew Fisher

Presidents aren’t elected by popular vote, as much as Democrats may wish otherwise. Biden’s 7 million vote margin can be entirely accounted for by the large margins he ran up in ultra-blue California and New York. MAGA Republicanism remains very competitive under the US Federal system.

Last edited 1 year ago by Michael Sharon
Kat L
Kat L
1 year ago
Reply to  Andrew Fisher

He did win the popular vote in all the states that mattered for the election. He lost by less than 40k in the deciding states for the presidency. Low information voters and media demonization won the midterms; fetterman over success story surgeon oz? A dead democrat also won re-election over his challenger.

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
1 year ago
Reply to  Cho Jinn

What about, you know, aiming at actually winning the popular vote, something the Republicans haven’t achieved in a Presidential election since 2004?

On that basis Trump has never won a single election – he was millions of votes behind, despite apparently being the most beloved President in history, at least according to his largely deluded fan base.

Trump being the candidate in 2024 is a sure fire way to defeat for the Republicans – he after all reduced the mid term ‘red wave’ to a ‘red ripple’.

Last edited 1 year ago by Andrew Fisher
Cho Jinn
Cho Jinn
1 year ago

Unless and until a handful of swing counties can be made to have something resembling a clear, coherent, and legal ballot registration and tallying program, none of it matters. The onus is on local officials; the rest is WWE.

Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
1 year ago

Given the performance of our many female mayors and governors, the former Secretary of State and presidential candidate, and the current VP, I say dear God, no.

Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
1 year ago

Given the performance of our many female mayors and governors, the former Secretary of State and presidential candidate, and the current VP, I say dear God, no.

Julian Farrows
Julian Farrows
1 year ago

I have a contractor friend in North Carolina who told me he did construction work for her some time ago in South Carolina. He eventually had to pull out because his invoices weren’t being paid. Finally, after all his hard work, he was given nothing more than a plaque thanking him for his contribution.

Julian Farrows
Julian Farrows
1 year ago

I have a contractor friend in North Carolina who told me he did construction work for her some time ago in South Carolina. He eventually had to pull out because his invoices weren’t being paid. Finally, after all his hard work, he was given nothing more than a plaque thanking him for his contribution.

Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago

Any relation to Bill Haley? here endeth my interest…

Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago

Any relation to Bill Haley? here endeth my interest…

John Scott
John Scott
1 year ago

Oh please, give us a break! Neocons, Trump, Trump, Trump, Russia conspiracies, surface level squabbles, Trump, Trump, Trump, mere pantomime, etc. is that all you can think about commenting on? It is time commentators start talking about something else.
I like the fact that she has enough balls to take on the good-old-boy network and the obsessed Never Trumpers like Cuenco. .

Kat L
Kat L
1 year ago
Reply to  John Scott

She’s a female Mitt Romney, she isn’t taking on anyone. Remember her tweet after st. Floyd died?

Kat L
Kat L
1 year ago
Reply to  John Scott

She’s a female Mitt Romney, she isn’t taking on anyone. Remember her tweet after st. Floyd died?

John Scott
John Scott
1 year ago

Oh please, give us a break! Neocons, Trump, Trump, Trump, Russia conspiracies, surface level squabbles, Trump, Trump, Trump, mere pantomime, etc. is that all you can think about commenting on? It is time commentators start talking about something else.
I like the fact that she has enough balls to take on the good-old-boy network and the obsessed Never Trumpers like Cuenco. .

Caty Gonzales
Caty Gonzales
1 year ago

I thought it was widely believed she isn’t so much running for president as she is running for VP or Secretary of State in a Trump or DeSantis administration.

Caty Gonzales
Caty Gonzales
1 year ago

I thought it was widely believed she isn’t so much running for president as she is running for VP or Secretary of State in a Trump or DeSantis administration.

Ralph Wade
Ralph Wade
1 year ago

Haley, DeSantis, Pence, Trump – If the Republicans want to win in 2024 it all comes down to who can win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

M Blanc
M Blanc
1 year ago
Reply to  Ralph Wade

That will be the Dem candidate, whatever it is.

M Blanc
M Blanc
1 year ago
Reply to  Ralph Wade

That will be the Dem candidate, whatever it is.

Ralph Wade
Ralph Wade
1 year ago

Haley, DeSantis, Pence, Trump – If the Republicans want to win in 2024 it all comes down to who can win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

Chris W
Chris W
1 year ago

Trump is the only one who stands for democracy, true democracy – not the de Toqueville, pretend democracy.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
1 year ago
Reply to  Chris W

Would you like to elaborate on the difference?

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
1 year ago
Reply to  Chris W

Would you like to elaborate on the difference?

Chris W
Chris W
1 year ago

Trump is the only one who stands for democracy, true democracy – not the de Toqueville, pretend democracy.

Andrew Boughton
Andrew Boughton
1 year ago

Very astute is Michael.

David Giles
David Giles
1 year ago

What I love is commentator after commentator decrying what they must deep down know to be true: neoliberalism, meaning free trade, makes the world wealthier, healthier, cleaner and safer; just does. The startling reduction in poverty worldwide from 1990 and the ascent of the Washington consensus has shown us this. Yes still we lie to our hearts and pretend we don’t know it.

David Giles
David Giles
1 year ago

What I love is commentator after commentator decrying what they must deep down know to be true: neoliberalism, meaning free trade, makes the world wealthier, healthier, cleaner and safer; just does. The startling reduction in poverty worldwide from 1990 and the ascent of the Washington consensus has shown us this. Yes still we lie to our hearts and pretend we don’t know it.