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R Wright
R Wright
1 year ago

I’m shocked it took the Tories this figure out that they should cut their losses in London. They cannot beat demography. Let young and immigrant voters congregate into the same handful of seats while they dominate the rest. With that they could stay in power another decade or two.

Douglas H
Douglas H
1 year ago
Reply to  R Wright

Immigrants are not necessarily Labour supporters, demography does not bring any inevitables

R Wright
R Wright
1 year ago
Reply to  Douglas H

You are correct, especially when it comes to conservative Indians and Africans. The majority, however, swallow their pride and vote for Labour. Both parties are dire, but one is more nakedly captured by its obsession with promoting immigration despite its unpopularity.

hayden eastwood
hayden eastwood
1 year ago
Reply to  R Wright

The democrats in the USA have banked on the calculation that immigrants = votes for them. But they’ve been furious to discover that many, particularly from formerly or actively left leaning countries, vote conservative. Unfortunately, immigrants don’t always behave in the ways you hope, as the democrats are discovering to their peril.

Linda Hutchinson
Linda Hutchinson
1 year ago

Hence the need to scare them by pushing racism and anti-imagrant narratives. Of course, unfortunately, there is a large cadre on the Right who play right into this,

Andrew Langridge
Andrew Langridge
1 year ago

The northern ‘red wall’ seats will be key at the next election. While the Tories might be losing ground in the south, it is hard to see them imploding there.
It is clear to me that, given the largely self-inflicted mess that Johnson is in, and the escalating economic crisis, Labour are severly underperforming. In my view, the party missed a trick by not selecting a northern woman, such as Nandy or Long-Bailey as their leader. Starmer is an uncharismatic southern lawyer who, while popular in London, as shadow Brexit secretary was heavily implicated in Labour’s disastrous position on Brexit before the last General Election.
As the article says, Labour’s main hope is that the economic condition worsens to such an extent that northerners vote with their pockets instead of on Brexit and immigration.

Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago

Tend to agree. I think the Lib Dem threat in the south is – as things stand today – overstated. It’s likely today that this is as much classic protest vote as permanent shift. But that may yet change.
It certainly seems to be the case that around here (South Cambs), Labour have effectively stood down to give the Lib Dems a free run outside Cambridge (which is now solidly Labour). I’m not convinced this is actually going to work that well though.
I also agree that Labour success in London (and large cities) may be a negative outside London.
Nandy, Long-Bailey, Reeves, Rayner. They’ll need to do a lot better than that to have any chance. The Tories don’t have much talent these days. But then you look at Labour and the Lib Dems …

Matt M
Matt M
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

It isn’t the accents that is the problem it is the opinions. Nandy in particular is a woke zealot. Very unlikely to reverse Red Wall seats.

Last edited 1 year ago by Matt M
Caroline Watson
Caroline Watson
1 year ago

People in traditional Labour areas will vote Labour in local elections because they are voting for local people who share their values. Local Labour parties in places like Cumbria are still populated by the same people that they always were and it is those people who stand for the local council.
In a general election, where the candidate is likely to be a middle class identity politician, imposed by Labour HQ, and the Tory a local farmer or business person, they will vote for the local person who shares their local values.
It really isn’t that difficult to understand!

Graham Moore
Graham Moore
1 year ago

The problem: 
One thing people tend to overlook is the Marxist attack on the electoral college in the USA.  Why do they attack the electoral college?  Because it is key to keeping urban areas from hijacking America and the American Constitution (the American Constitution is mostly English). In much the same way, London has hijacked England.  The metropolitan bubble otherwise known as the ‘EU region of London’ mirrors Washington DC.  Washington DC is an autonomous zone, similar to the City of London where the ‘usual rules’ don’t apply. Washington DC has hijacked America and centralised power under the supposedly federal government. With this over-centralisation has come a rising tide of corruption and myriad abuses of power. Never has Lord Acton’s quote been more apposite: ‘power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely’.  
The Solution:  
The answer to our problems lies in radical decentralisation. This would return England to counties, districts and parishes, install an English Parliament and voiding (not repealing) the Act(s) of Union, thereby removing the EU regions. This is the opposite to levelling up, which actually means the parasitical class mirroring the London EU region across the rest of England. Their (Lib, Lab, Con) levelling up is actually levelling down the rest of England.  Return London to Boroughs and reinstate the original boundaries of Essex, Kent, Middlesex, Surrey and remove the Marxist London Metropolitan Police.  
We need to reinstate our traditional industries: fishing, shipbuilding, coal, gas, oil, steel and farming.  We can reinstate our real English apprenticeships within these industries which were destroyed by the parasitical class.   The political class.  The political mafia.  
England is a traditional conservative country hijacked by Marxists.   Remember that Great Britain is an island. Within that island are two countries: England and Scotland, with a principality called Wales. Scotland has been hijacked by Marxists.  Wales has been hijacked by Marxists.  England as a conservative, hardworking nation has been surrounded by British Marxist colonialists and attacked from every side.  We the English are a direct threat to globalism, communism, Marxism and socialism.  Why else would Karl Marx say “Every communist revolution has been shipwrecked on the rock of England”. He didn’t say “Britain”. The artificial British colonial citizen has been created by ‘Soviet Britain’.  
The not-so-civil service should be removed in its current form.  The senior echelons of this parasite class ensconced in Whitehall are those really running the country. They drive the implementation of the cultural Marxist ideology in our country, including the institutionalised grooming of primary school children. We can institute the new English Parliament in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, York or Hull. The Palace of Westminster can be reopened as a museum of treason and corruption. This is in the same vein as the Soviet Secret Police HQ in Budapest, which has been transformed into the House of Terror Museum, summarising the post-war communist coup and resulting reign of terror. Westminster will be a relic no different to the Politburo of the Soviet Union.   
The insidious influence of the non-governmental organisations will be rooted out. How many organisations promoting open borders or the climate change narrative are funded by George Soros’s Open Society Foundation? 
We need to rebuild England from the ground up as a traditional Christian nation.  Put England, God, the Constitution and the traditional family back into our schools, colleges and universities. Take England back from the parasitical classes called globalists (a globalist is another name for communist).  
Marxist Britain has left our pensioners to starve or die from the cold.  We the English Constitution Party will not allow this to continue.  You built this country. You and your ancestors fought for this country. We respect you and want you to live a comfortable life in retirement.     
The only people that can turn this around is us, the English

Last edited 1 year ago by Graham Moore
ARNAUD ALMARIC
ARNAUD ALMARIC
1 year ago
Reply to  Graham Moore

Something like the Heptarchy in fact.

Linda Hutchinson
Linda Hutchinson
1 year ago
Reply to  ARNAUD ALMARIC

Absolutely! I have long (and monotonously) pushed for this solution. The old “Heptarchy”, somewhat modified to reflect the changes since the 7th century (Northumbria would be too big and Kent too small), would make a good basis for regional parliaments. The advantages are miriad, but I think particularly it would allow local history and positive pride in one’s own “kingdom”. I’ll wave the flag of Wessex any day, and I’m sure there are proud Northumbrians and Mercians out there, too

ARNAUD ALMARIC
ARNAUD ALMARIC
1 year ago

Exactly, after all an Englishman or Englishwoman from say Barnard Castle is somewhat different from one from Stow-on- the Wold are they not?
I’m also glad to, see you are not Claire D reincarnated!

Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago
Reply to  Graham Moore

Hear, hear!! exactly!

Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago
Reply to  Graham Moore

superb!

Stuart Morgan
Stuart Morgan
1 year ago

Tory strategy: manifesto promises of actual Conservative policies,get elected then behave like Labour Lite. Zero principles. Just get power then sit on their lardy @rses.

Andrew Lale
Andrew Lale
1 year ago

There is almost no point to articles like this. If you look at the top thirty government policies, the Tories, Labour and LibDems agree on nearly all of them. The suffocating ‘liberal’ globalist consensus which includes ultra-green and pro-immigrant policies spans all the major parties. If you don’t want that toxic soup, you have a choice of… nothing. No party.

SIMON WOLF
SIMON WOLF
1 year ago

As a former Lib Dem voter who voted Tory when Corbyn was leader not sure who i will vote for next time.The current green woke Lib Dems alienate me – what a pity they never made Lembit their leader.The Boris govt is a huge disappointment – what would other govts have done with a 80 seat majority.No real idea what a Labour govt would do in power.

Malcolm Knott
Malcolm Knott
1 year ago

Like almost every piece on politics today this reminds me of Mr Asquith’s famous phrase: ‘Wait and see.’

Lionel Woodcock
Lionel Woodcock
1 year ago

Accurate but long-winded piece. And aren’t we all bored to screaming about the lazy minded suffix of ‘gate’. Attacks on what the government is doing works in local elections; too easy; general elections take note of policies and we have yet to hear from Labour.

Pamela Booker
Pamela Booker
1 year ago

I rather like the way the way the Watergate scandal has created the suffix ‘gate’ to subsequent(albeit lesser) scandals. It is an example of how language evolves.

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
1 year ago

I couldn’t see many superfluous sentences in the article. ‘Long-winded’ = providing solid evidence and historical comparisons rather than just making assertions and preaching to the converted (as a lot of UnHerd contributors appear to prefer!)

Last edited 1 year ago by Andrew Fisher
Oliver Elkington
Oliver Elkington
1 year ago

At the last election many of the moderate seats in the South, even in London voted for Conservative because they could not stomach the thought of a Labour government. It will be the same at the next election, for all the faults of Boris sane governance is something that the majority of people are crying out for and to be fair it is something that Boris and his tories are trying to do by getting brexit done, levelling up deprived regions, toughening up on immigration controls and lowering unemployment, Labours policies are messy and never agreed on on the other hand.

Mike Michaels
Mike Michaels
1 year ago

Labour, Conservative it doesn’t matter. WEF stooges lead both of them. This is the pressing issue of our times yet nobody seems to want to talk about it.

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/correspondence_between_leader_of

C W
C W
1 year ago

Something missing here. We are talking about the government of the UK at Westminster. Surely, we should also count the seats in Scotland and Wales, not just pretend that they don’t exist.

Last edited 1 year ago by C W
Peter B
Peter B
1 year ago
Reply to  C W

But they get to vote twice – once for devolved administrations and again for Westminster. Plus large subsidies from England. And still over-represented in Westminster until seat sizes are equalised.
I hardly think the SNP with 48 seats (80% of seats) for around 1.24 million votes can claim to be under-represented in Westminster. The biggest winners from a first past the post voting system.
In any case, there are not enough winnable Scottish constituencies for the Conservatives (without PR) to really make a difference – they’re always in the opposition column. However, a larger SNP share does play really badly in England (as the article correctly notes). A majority Labour government is far less objectionable to England than a Labour/SNP coalition.
There are plenty of marginal/swing constituencies in Wales.
But obviously most of the swing consituencies are in England.
If there is a problem here, I suggest it is Blair’s botched devolution and its inherent discrimination against England. Don’t be surprised if England doesn’t like it.

ARNAUD ALMARIC
ARNAUD ALMARIC
1 year ago
Reply to  Peter B

We need another Cromwell to organise a purely English referendum to decide whether to jettison this trio of ungrateful parasites, and the sooner the better.

Douglas H
Douglas H
1 year ago
Reply to  ARNAUD ALMARIC

And murder the Irish? I’d hope not

ARNAUD ALMARIC
ARNAUD ALMARIC
1 year ago
Reply to  Douglas H

Forgive me, but I thought it was the other way round?

D Glover
D Glover
1 year ago

.

Last edited 1 year ago by D Glover
Nicky Samengo-Turner
Nicky Samengo-Turner
1 year ago

Conservative voters have found that they have a Socialist, neo Orwellian lowest common denominator state controlling anti freedom of expression party in power…THAT is the problem!

Dan Miller
Dan Miller
1 year ago

Labour’s headed slowly and surly into another “Jewish” saga that will go on past the next chance for leadership (unless Starmer can eradicate the rascals)

Last edited 1 year ago by Dan Miller
Douglas H
Douglas H
1 year ago

Thanks, very good analysis

Mike MacCormack
Mike MacCormack
1 year ago

There’s no mystery here: the left and the centre left; Labour, Liberals, the SNP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru, and old uncle Tom Cobbley and all divide and weaken any opposition to the Tories to the extent that the Tories almost inevitably win in a first past the post contest with 30% to 35% of the vote. If the centre left would only stop mucking about and start cooperating with each other the Tories would be dead in a ditch.

Alan Hawkes
Alan Hawkes
1 year ago

A victory for the “party of forgotten England,” risks making Scotland even more likely to vote for independence.

David Wildgoose
David Wildgoose
1 year ago
Reply to  Alan Hawkes

Good! We English are always being sacrificed “for the sake of the Union”. I notice that the opposite NEVER applies though.