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Chris Wheatley
Chris Wheatley
2 years ago

Take a quick look around the world.

Myanmar: all around the world politicians talked of sanctions a year ago. No change.

Libya: Chaos. Polititicians making speeches. Nothing will happen. Many Aftrican countries. North Korea. Saudi Arabia/Yemen.

If Russia invades Ukraine, nothing will happen. This will be a green light for China to invade Taiwan. Russia has already invaded Belarus and nobody has noticed.

What exactly is the point of the hugely expensive United Nations? Can’t we just remove it? What is the point of NATO?

In all of these areas, western powers get rich by selling arms and then look away when the arms are used. The west, led by the USA, is totally decrepit.

Alex Tickell
Alex Tickell
2 years ago
Reply to  Chris Wheatley

Absolutely correct, the world is moving on while Western Europe, the UK and US seem rooted in the “Glory Days”
The assertion that NATO are the good guys, or even that they have any grip on Geo-politics is given the lie by their actions In Libya which arguably turned out to be a worse disaster than the UK/US war on Iraq.
It is becoming increasingly obvious that democracy in the West is no longer in place and has been usurped by a small group of degenerates who have succeeded in turning a once proud and freedom loving people into a “herd” of hopeless victims…….The real villains are the MSM who have masked and blindfolded the people.

Alka Hughes-Hallett
Alka Hughes-Hallett
2 years ago
Reply to  Alex Tickell

The people in the West have themselves to blame. The media, government, policies are all shaped by the western education & universities that emphasis safety first, defines science as exact- without debate, indulging and cowering to those funding programs, big money from foreign governments or technocrats silencing debate, there are not many bold and fearless iconic citizens, who like to challenge the populous, left in the West. Most are given to their indulgences and a sense of entitlement. As Covid passes through us, the most of the holiday/travel starved westerners are thinking of their next getaway -and they won’t let a WAR get in the way!!!

Bill W
Bill W
2 years ago

Exactly. I find the obsession with foreign holidays intriguing.

Linda Hutchinson
Linda Hutchinson
2 years ago
Reply to  Bill W

I find this obsession rather strange, too.

Jon Hawksley
Jon Hawksley
2 years ago

Putin wants to “restore” Ukraine as part of Russia. Putin does not want a war with NATO. Putin has been told that NATO will not defend Ukraine whilst it is not in NATO. Putin has been told that Ukraine may join NATO. Therefore the West has told Putin his window of opportunity is now, before Ukraine joins NATO.
The West shouts about sanctions but depends on oil and gas from Russia. Putin will build gas pipelines to China and then threatens sanctions on Europe.
Is anyone in the West thinking this through.

Bill W
Bill W
2 years ago
Reply to  Jon Hawksley

No.

Alan Hawkes
Alan Hawkes
2 years ago

Mene mene tekel upharsin: that is probably the way President Putin would judge the West. If there is no invasion we could see this as an large-scale intelligence-gathering action. Too much of Europe relies on Russia for energy, The US is primarily concerned with China and anyway, hasn’t Europe run down its ability to defend its own interests?

Bill W
Bill W
2 years ago
Reply to  Alan Hawkes

When was “Europe” able to defend its own interests. Post war Europe was divided in two of which Western Europe was probably strongest during the Cold War but still relied on the US guarantee. Post Cold War, Europe drew a premature peace dividend only to wake up to how weak it is in response to Russia. But for Russia. Europe would carry on slacking.

Last edited 2 years ago by Bill W
Saul D
Saul D
2 years ago

“If he doesn’t see any of his major demands met and then doesn’t go through with any military action, Russians may start wondering what all the fuss was about.”

  1. Under the great dictator narrative, why would Putin care what Russians think?
  2. In strategy, success is best achieved without the cost of military action. A few scared neighbours brought back under the Russian wing would be a gain (Belarus and Kazakhistan for instance)
  3. On the world stage, Putin has returned Russia to be a player. Russia is no longer just an adjunct at Nato meetings via the Nato Russia Council, expected to nod along while Nato does its thing.
  4. He is humiliating Ukraine and exposing the softness of the US and EU promises to help and European reliance on Russia for energy.
  5. The US will claim victory if he doesn’t invade. But if he turns the gas off, how are the Americans going to help? What if Ukraine and Russia negotiate a deal that will improve economic relations as a means of reducing tensions? Any Ukraine-Russia deal will undermine America.

So Putin doesn’t have to invade. He can achieve what he wants without invasion. But also, in some ways, the Americans need Russia to invade. It makes them Ukraine’s protector. It creates a tangible boo-hiss enemy. It justifies American-interventionism and military expenditure. The EU, by contrast, due to Russia gas and proximity, doesn’t want a Russian bear on its doorstep, and probably doesn’t want America rearming Europe recreating cold-war fear.
Will Russia invade? No idea. But no-one has explained to me the benefit other than as a Putin ego-trip, or how that benefit is worth the cost. If Putin is the demon mad-man aping Peter the Great then invasion it is. If not, someone has to explain what Russia expects to gain by an occupation and a resisting anti-Russian population other than cost and enemies.

Joe Donovan
Joe Donovan
2 years ago

This is very good. A couple of rather secondary points. (1) If you pull China out of that list of seven top “emerging economies,” the remaining six will be bupkis when lined up against the G7. (2) I very much don’t want this invasion to happen, but if it does, it is, I think, as likely to tell a cautionary tale to the Chinese vis a vis Taiwan as to encourage China’s own military adventurism. Putin may rue the day, notwithstanding the cultural weakness of the West.

Ian Stewart
Ian Stewart
2 years ago

Europe can continue to get away with being unprepared as the Eastern EU countries will, probably after this event, develop a unified military response with support from the U.K. and USA, but not through NATO since that limits action.
Again I ask, what happens after Putin? This is what we need to prepare for.

Colin Elliott
Colin Elliott
2 years ago
Reply to  Ian Stewart

I was going to disagree with you, comparing the will o’ the wisp of the EU foreign policy with the more focussed NATO, but then realised that you are right, given the potential quality of decisions made by the last three PsOTUS, and France, Germany and Turkey, maybe even Canada. It’s interesting to think that the members which are more committed tend to be the newer ones which Putin regrets having been allowed to join.
No doubt Putin has a secret chuckle as he uses the aggressiveness of NATO as his casus belli, supported by a surprising number of apologists in the West, when you and I know that it’s not even steadfast in defensive attitude.

Terence Fitch
Terence Fitch
2 years ago

More self flagellation. Of course ‘the West’ is ambiguous and divided. That’s the damn point of democracy. Plenty of masochistic commentators on here over the past few weeks just longing for ‘a man on a horse’ to sort it all out and knock heads together. Meanwhile I for one am not going to be that old git down the pub droning on and expecting someone else’s son to spill his guts out in the snow or end up fried alive inside an APC.

Colin Elliott
Colin Elliott
2 years ago
Reply to  Terence Fitch

A democracy can choose to be prepared to defend itself, or unprepared to defend itself, and those seem to depend upon the patriotism of the electorate, the wisdom of the politicians who happen to be competing for power, or the realisation of how dangerous the world is.

George Knight
George Knight
2 years ago

The EU (aka Europe) has chosen a path of soft power rather than hard power, such as chosen by the regimes of China and Russia. Putin is both a good strategist and a very wealthy man. Any military adventurism will surely have to fit within a framework that does not diminish his cash flow as well as that of his associates. Remember, the power/wealth dynamic in Russia is between Putin and the Mafia. Both require significant cash inflows. War is fine if it can be wrapped up within a few months at minimal cost. Is absorbing Ukraine worth more than what Putin has already? My guess is that it is not, but rather that it is useful for leveraging his self esteem with European leaders visiting the Kremlin only to receive a lecture.

Terence Fitch
Terence Fitch
2 years ago
Reply to  George Knight

Concur. Very big lies need a constant flow of very big lies wrapped up with false patriotism and simplicity. Look at those Westerners- do you want to be confused like them? etc. Surely the West ( stupid generalisation- Iceland is like Poland for example) is divided. We have to be grown ups and not admire a Xi/ Putin approach where everyone gruesomely apparently agrees. Of course woke identity wars are silly but we do allow such statements. Like everyone I’ve an urge to grab a street blocker and chuck them in jail- well for a bit anyway but Navalny? Ai Wei Wei? A number of brave Hong Kong folk? Let’s not cringe in front of these despicable bullies.

Dermot O'Sullivan
Dermot O'Sullivan
2 years ago

When you’re green, you’re growing; when you’re ripe, you’re rotten.

Alex Tickell
Alex Tickell
2 years ago

Confucius?

SULPICIA LEPIDINA
SULPICIA LEPIDINA
2 years ago
Reply to  Alex Tickell

McDonald’s.

Martin Logan
Martin Logan
2 years ago

It’s rather obvious that Putin wont invade.
Rather, he will try and weaken Ukraine’s economy, by keeping significant forces nearby. He will ratchet the threat up and down over teh coming months, trying to keep both Ukraine and the West off balance. Over time it will hurt all our economies.
But the real problem is Western disunity, not Western softness or greed. Europe and the US were the strongest economies in the Cold War, and still are.
And that disunity stems from people on both sides who would rather “own” the Libs (or “own” the Right), rather than realize that people like Putin and Xi are an existential threat to all of us. The same thing went on in France in 1940.
It didn’t end well.

Alex Tickell
Alex Tickell
2 years ago
Reply to  Martin Logan

I disagree, the existential threat lies in supporting the “alphabet people” and their insane views.
We need to get back to basics where we have a society founded on real economics, real biology, and a realisation that “rights” should not be universal, but based on behaviour and contribution.
Trans people constitute a tiny percentage of our population, homosexuals under 2 percent, yet they and left wing activists control the media and government.
Homosexuals led all of the main parties in Holyrood not so long ago and are hugely over represented in Westminster. We can never achieve a realistic governance while these people are in control, as their agenda is the complete destruction of traditional society.