I know I sound snippy, but this site is called Unherd. Why is it increasingly being used by mainstream journalists to peddle the same old stuff that I came here to avoid?
Prashant Kotak
2 years ago
I know very little about French politics, but it looks to me he’s in real trouble this time. And the idea that Macron can improve his popularity by reaching an accomodation with Putin, seems to me, from a UK perspective, totally ludicrous. I mean by that, that is not something that would ever happen here – not even if Putin were to make a speech tomorrow stating on public TV, that he was keen to restore Russia to its former glory, but one chat with Macron has so put the wind up him, that he dare not tangle with the French, so he’s decided to back off from Ukraine.
Justin Clark
2 years ago
Started to read this and thought, ahh I bet this is written by that guy….
(I’m getting so good at detecting this now.)
Katharine Eyre
2 years ago
Right so, wait a minute: first Lichfield says “no, going to Putin is not about the election!” but further down the text admits that – whatever the outcome of the marathon chin-wag with Vlad – it will be an electoral windfall. Come on – of course Macron factored that into the whole show.
Putin might find conversations with Macron more “profound” than with other leaders…but who, really, is the competition? Olaf Scholz hardly says anything, so having a “profound” conversation with him might be a bit of a push…And if Macron does not have any power to commit anyone to anything they don’t want, then it is just a conversation, buying time. Lichfield explicitly contemplates the possibility that Putin is stringing Macron along here (he has form) and might just go ahead and do what he wants anyway – so in my eyes, the parallel with Chamberlain is actually accurate. The article contains some very flimsy arguments and several contradictions.
Putin knows exactly how much Macron needs to be the man of the moment: I bet that any demands Putin makes will be finely calibrated to nudge the red lines set by Ukraine etc. If Macron thinks “I can’t sell this”, then he’s failed and I honestly don’t think that this will really bolster his reputation (here’s Politico this morning: https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/ – it basically says Macron got mauled). If he tries to sell the conditions to his Western partners, Putin can sit back and enjoy the spectacle, because a) he’s set his conditions and b) can watch as Mani sows even more division among the Western alliance trying to sell them – motored by his own vanity. He’s got his little ego-puppet to weaken the opposition.
And – even if EM does manage to broker a détente and stuff calms down – who’s to say that Putin won’t just escalate again at some point? He has learnt that if he threatens and makes it credible that Bad Stuff Will Happen, the West compromises. Bit by bit, slice by slice – he edges forward and gets what he wants.
It seems to me sometimes that political arguments fail because they assume the voters are all deep thinkers. They’re not, they just want a quiet life to continue as normal.
A few agressive thinkers will vote Right or Left but these two options could mean more trouble, more civil violence, more strikes. But if you vote for somebody you know, somebody quiet and boring, you get a further five years without much happening. Bliss! Things might get gradually worse during those five years but gradual means not sudden, not a shock. Macron must win.
(On top of that you get five years moaning that politicians don’t do anything. This moaning is part of life in France)
Tbh Chris I didn’t pay great attention to the bit about the domestic situation in France which attached onto the end of the Putin yarn, as the contradictions in the first part of the article were an indication of the quality of the rest of it.
A little footnote with a thought about why Putin and Macron get on so well. It is because they are quite similar. I remember during the whole Skripal episode, there were statements coming out of Russia to the effect that the British had made up the entire thing somehow – obviously completely absurd.
I am constantly reminded of this when I hear some French politician blaming Britain for the Channel migrant situation.
These w!lly-wavers…they all deserve each other. I can just imagine Angela Merkel sitting down with her first post-retirement cup of Horlicks in Uckermark or wherever…bet she wonders why she even bothered. She’s gone five minutes and this happens – male egos and vanity being spaffed around all over the shop.
“Putin might find conversations with Macron more “profound” than with other leaders…but who, really, is the competition?” Yes, and also: *since when did this bare-chested, chauvinistic, philistine, egomaniacal, kleptocratic serial murderer become the arbiter of profundity?*
As soon as he sat down at the table as big as an aircraft carrier he looked ‘owned’… the idea of that being talks looked ridiculous.
And as another person who came up against a Godfather type figure once said *…and a man in my position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous*…. that guy spurned the Godfather and got his prize thoroughbred’s severed head in bed to bring around.
Macron seems to have decided looking ridiculous was the lesser of two evils and went along with it.
Yes Scholz not talking is Merkel the second strategy.
Sarah H
2 years ago
Macron cheerleader cheers for Macron. Since there isn’t a cat in hell’s chance of Putin doing anything unless NATO dives in first then the idea that Macron has saved us from anything is much the same as lockdowns saving us all from viral doom. Oldest trick in the book. The idea that Macron saving us all will have the French weeping into their coffee and croissant with gratitude and voting for him is absurd. If he wins it would be because he is the least detestable to the widest number.
Jonathan Weil
2 years ago
“Macron’s generally sound handling of the Covid pandemic” — is an odd description of someone who used his Jovian platform to spread misinformation about the AZ vaccine that may have cost hundreds of thousands of lives worldwide (see yesterday’s Times), and who made the wrong call on Omicron, depriving his people not only of their liberty but also of the natural vaccine currently boosting immunity on this side of the Channel. A pox on the man. No wonder Putin likes him so much. They’re both Napoleonic in their willingness to spend thousands of innocent lives to achieve their squalidly self-glorifying ends.
Graham Stull
2 years ago
“The main topics of conversation in France are, according to the IFOP poll: Covid, Covid and Covid.” *Article then goes on to talk about Ukraine as the only policy issue.*
I’m no expert on French politics but the images I get from Paris and other protest hotspots remain one of intense disillusionment with Macron’s handling of the pandemic. The Gilets Jaunes movement has merge seemlessly with anti-covid protests, spurred on by the growing awareness of the link between price increases and, well, shutting down production for a year and a half. (Elon Musk: “If you don’t make stuff, you don’t have stuff.”)
Nick Wright
2 years ago
Obviously one despot recognising another.
Iris C
2 years ago
I, for one, welcome Macron’s decision to speak in a reasonable and rational way with Putin in order to reduce tensions.
He is now on his way to Ukraine. Perhaps he will get its President to see that it would have a stabling effect in the region and be more economically productive for that country, if they were politically neutral, able to trade with the EU and their nearest neighbours without fear or favour…
On the News last night I heard President Biden threaten the German Chancellor with an (unspecified) threat if they continued with their expansion of gas from Russia.
That is one way to make friends and influence people!
.
Without fear or favour on Putin’s terms and only until his next move.
John Riordan
2 years ago
“If he fails and Nato plunges into a serious confrontation with Moscow, Macron will be the nation’s independent-minded, internationally respected leader at a time of world crisis.”
I don’t follow this part. If he fails, then he fails. He has after all set himself up as the leader of an alternative, non-NATO driven approach to the problem, one predicated on diplomacy, and one which has never in the past worked if it did not simply give Russia’s leader what he wanted all along. Macron will fail to achieve anything that Vladimir Putin was not already will ing to concede, the only issue is whether what’s agreed permits Macron to act as if he has been useful.
However, none of that applies if the stand-off leads to NATO confrontation. In that event, there is no way to spin Macron’s attempts as anything but disastrous.
Ted Ditchburn
2 years ago
He looked like an idiot in that picture at a table the size of an aircraft career… Putin put him in his place with no effort at all. The idea he’ll broker anything, and that his jumping in is a heads I win, tails they lose masterstroke seems fanciful.
He always seems a bit needy every time elections come around, and a bit too obvious. He may well win again, and probably will but I don’t think it seems as clear cut as 65% chance, let alone 79%..and anyway that was the Economist’s best guess and prediction wise that mag couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo.
Couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo. I am stealing this phrase!
Stephen Walshe
2 years ago
Macron is not unbeatable. He has the support of around a quarter of the electorate. Candidates to his left have the support of another quarter, and candidates to his right have the support of about half the electorate. As Macron would probably win a second round contest against any of three candidates to his right, the best way to beat him would be for the 50% rightist vote to split fairly evenly between two candidates, and squeeze Macron into third place. If Zemmour withdrew, that could happen, as his support would probably split fairly evenly between Le Pen and Pécresse. But, assuming he gets on the ballot, Zemmour’s enormous ego and desire to turn this campaign into a book selling promotional tour will likely hand the election to Macron.
If he has the support of a quarter of the electorate and only 40% turn out to vote, he will do well. The other candidates need a very large turnout to have any chance.
Rob Britton
2 years ago
Valerie Pecresse! Right wing!! All Macron did was sit with Putin at either end of a big long table.
Right-wing, Left-wing, extreme-Right, extreme-Left – it all depends on where you sit on the spectrum yourself.
Brian Villanueva
2 years ago
This is incorrect. Macron absolutely has the capacity to commit NATO to the one thing Putin says he wants: no further expansion.
The US trumpets NATO’s “open door” policy, but that door is easily closable by Macron. Put a law through parliament tomorrow stating that France will never approve any further members of NATO, or any members east of a particular line, or any members of former Soviet-bloc countries. Because NATO requires unanimous consent from existing members before new members are added, this would effectively give Putin exactly what he wants,
Macron is intent on recentering European foreign policy and defense in Europe instead of Washington. This would be an excellent lever with which to do that, particularly if Scholz in Germany were to do the same in his parliament. They could literally commandeer the leadership of NATO from right under Biden’s nose in one fell swoop.
Russia has a similar play using in Erdogan in Turkey (another NATO member). Even if the rest of NATO were to go along, I can not imagine that Turkey would approve Ukrainian admission. Erdogan is far closer to Moscow politically than he is to Brussels.
Last edited 2 years ago by Brian Villanueva
Matthew Powell
2 years ago
What concession could Macron offer that could dissuade Putin at this point? If the invasion does not happen now, then the West will rush to fortify Ukraine’s military and its economy so that Russia cannot so easily hold a gun to its head again. Yet Macron seems confident and is very publicly staking his reputation on achieving peace. What is Putin’s price?
Perhaps the answer lies to the East. Delaying until after the Winter Olympics might mean no invasion this year — but Putin can bank Chinese gratitude for not stealing their limelight, plus the recently concluded agreement for closer economic cooperation in the event of punitive Western sanctions. Another year to deepen this relationship, then, next Winter, when the ground is frozen once again…
Just read this in the Economist’s daily brief: “The Kremlin rejected Emmanuel Macron’s assertion that the French president had secured a pledge from his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to defuse the crisis with Ukraine. “In the current situation, Moscow and Paris could not make a deal,” said a spokesman. “France is not leading NATO,” he added, implying that Mr Macron lacks the standing to avert any conflict despite his best efforts.”
Dustshoe Richinrut
2 years ago
During the final of the last World Cup, in 2018, when France played in the actual final, staged in Moscow, and won, if my memory serves me well, there on the TV were Macron and Putin all smiles. Obviously standing in very close proximity!
I know I sound snippy, but this site is called Unherd. Why is it increasingly being used by mainstream journalists to peddle the same old stuff that I came here to avoid?
I know very little about French politics, but it looks to me he’s in real trouble this time. And the idea that Macron can improve his popularity by reaching an accomodation with Putin, seems to me, from a UK perspective, totally ludicrous. I mean by that, that is not something that would ever happen here – not even if Putin were to make a speech tomorrow stating on public TV, that he was keen to restore Russia to its former glory, but one chat with Macron has so put the wind up him, that he dare not tangle with the French, so he’s decided to back off from Ukraine.
Started to read this and thought, ahh I bet this is written by that guy….
(I’m getting so good at detecting this now.)
Right so, wait a minute: first Lichfield says “no, going to Putin is not about the election!” but further down the text admits that – whatever the outcome of the marathon chin-wag with Vlad – it will be an electoral windfall. Come on – of course Macron factored that into the whole show.
Putin might find conversations with Macron more “profound” than with other leaders…but who, really, is the competition? Olaf Scholz hardly says anything, so having a “profound” conversation with him might be a bit of a push…And if Macron does not have any power to commit anyone to anything they don’t want, then it is just a conversation, buying time. Lichfield explicitly contemplates the possibility that Putin is stringing Macron along here (he has form) and might just go ahead and do what he wants anyway – so in my eyes, the parallel with Chamberlain is actually accurate. The article contains some very flimsy arguments and several contradictions.
Putin knows exactly how much Macron needs to be the man of the moment: I bet that any demands Putin makes will be finely calibrated to nudge the red lines set by Ukraine etc. If Macron thinks “I can’t sell this”, then he’s failed and I honestly don’t think that this will really bolster his reputation (here’s Politico this morning: https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/ – it basically says Macron got mauled). If he tries to sell the conditions to his Western partners, Putin can sit back and enjoy the spectacle, because a) he’s set his conditions and b) can watch as Mani sows even more division among the Western alliance trying to sell them – motored by his own vanity. He’s got his little ego-puppet to weaken the opposition.
And – even if EM does manage to broker a détente and stuff calms down – who’s to say that Putin won’t just escalate again at some point? He has learnt that if he threatens and makes it credible that Bad Stuff Will Happen, the West compromises. Bit by bit, slice by slice – he edges forward and gets what he wants.
It seems to me sometimes that political arguments fail because they assume the voters are all deep thinkers. They’re not, they just want a quiet life to continue as normal.
A few agressive thinkers will vote Right or Left but these two options could mean more trouble, more civil violence, more strikes. But if you vote for somebody you know, somebody quiet and boring, you get a further five years without much happening. Bliss! Things might get gradually worse during those five years but gradual means not sudden, not a shock. Macron must win.
(On top of that you get five years moaning that politicians don’t do anything. This moaning is part of life in France)
Tbh Chris I didn’t pay great attention to the bit about the domestic situation in France which attached onto the end of the Putin yarn, as the contradictions in the first part of the article were an indication of the quality of the rest of it.
A little footnote with a thought about why Putin and Macron get on so well. It is because they are quite similar. I remember during the whole Skripal episode, there were statements coming out of Russia to the effect that the British had made up the entire thing somehow – obviously completely absurd.
I am constantly reminded of this when I hear some French politician blaming Britain for the Channel migrant situation.
These w!lly-wavers…they all deserve each other. I can just imagine Angela Merkel sitting down with her first post-retirement cup of Horlicks in Uckermark or wherever…bet she wonders why she even bothered. She’s gone five minutes and this happens – male egos and vanity being spaffed around all over the shop.
https://www.weforum.org/people/emmanuel-macron
https://www.weforum.org/people/vladimir-putin
https://www.weforum.org/people/justin-trudeau
https://www.weforum.org/people/jacinda-ardern
https://www.weforum.org/people/sebastian-kurz
https://www.weforum.org/people/angela-merkel
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/authors/tony-blair-2
Hear hear!
“Putin might find conversations with Macron more “profound” than with other leaders…but who, really, is the competition?” Yes, and also: *since when did this bare-chested, chauvinistic, philistine, egomaniacal, kleptocratic serial murderer become the arbiter of profundity?*
As soon as he sat down at the table as big as an aircraft carrier he looked ‘owned’… the idea of that being talks looked ridiculous.
And as another person who came up against a Godfather type figure once said *…and a man in my position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous*…. that guy spurned the Godfather and got his prize thoroughbred’s severed head in bed to bring around.
Macron seems to have decided looking ridiculous was the lesser of two evils and went along with it.
Yes Scholz not talking is Merkel the second strategy.
Macron cheerleader cheers for Macron. Since there isn’t a cat in hell’s chance of Putin doing anything unless NATO dives in first then the idea that Macron has saved us from anything is much the same as lockdowns saving us all from viral doom. Oldest trick in the book. The idea that Macron saving us all will have the French weeping into their coffee and croissant with gratitude and voting for him is absurd. If he wins it would be because he is the least detestable to the widest number.
“Macron’s generally sound handling of the Covid pandemic” — is an odd description of someone who used his Jovian platform to spread misinformation about the AZ vaccine that may have cost hundreds of thousands of lives worldwide (see yesterday’s Times), and who made the wrong call on Omicron, depriving his people not only of their liberty but also of the natural vaccine currently boosting immunity on this side of the Channel. A pox on the man. No wonder Putin likes him so much. They’re both Napoleonic in their willingness to spend thousands of innocent lives to achieve their squalidly self-glorifying ends.
“The main topics of conversation in France are, according to the IFOP poll: Covid, Covid and Covid.”
*Article then goes on to talk about Ukraine as the only policy issue.*
I’m no expert on French politics but the images I get from Paris and other protest hotspots remain one of intense disillusionment with Macron’s handling of the pandemic. The Gilets Jaunes movement has merge seemlessly with anti-covid protests, spurred on by the growing awareness of the link between price increases and, well, shutting down production for a year and a half. (Elon Musk: “If you don’t make stuff, you don’t have stuff.”)
Obviously one despot recognising another.
I, for one, welcome Macron’s decision to speak in a reasonable and rational way with Putin in order to reduce tensions.
He is now on his way to Ukraine. Perhaps he will get its President to see that it would have a stabling effect in the region and be more economically productive for that country, if they were politically neutral, able to trade with the EU and their nearest neighbours without fear or favour…
On the News last night I heard President Biden threaten the German Chancellor with an (unspecified) threat if they continued with their expansion of gas from Russia.
That is one way to make friends and influence people!
.
It worked so well in the 1930’s after all!
Without fear or favour on Putin’s terms and only until his next move.
“If he fails and Nato plunges into a serious confrontation with Moscow, Macron will be the nation’s independent-minded, internationally respected leader at a time of world crisis.”
I don’t follow this part. If he fails, then he fails. He has after all set himself up as the leader of an alternative, non-NATO driven approach to the problem, one predicated on diplomacy, and one which has never in the past worked if it did not simply give Russia’s leader what he wanted all along. Macron will fail to achieve anything that Vladimir Putin was not already will ing to concede, the only issue is whether what’s agreed permits Macron to act as if he has been useful.
However, none of that applies if the stand-off leads to NATO confrontation. In that event, there is no way to spin Macron’s attempts as anything but disastrous.
He looked like an idiot in that picture at a table the size of an aircraft career… Putin put him in his place with no effort at all. The idea he’ll broker anything, and that his jumping in is a heads I win, tails they lose masterstroke seems fanciful.
He always seems a bit needy every time elections come around, and a bit too obvious. He may well win again, and probably will but I don’t think it seems as clear cut as 65% chance, let alone 79%..and anyway that was the Economist’s best guess and prediction wise that mag couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo.
Couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a banjo. I am stealing this phrase!
Macron is not unbeatable. He has the support of around a quarter of the electorate. Candidates to his left have the support of another quarter, and candidates to his right have the support of about half the electorate. As Macron would probably win a second round contest against any of three candidates to his right, the best way to beat him would be for the 50% rightist vote to split fairly evenly between two candidates, and squeeze Macron into third place. If Zemmour withdrew, that could happen, as his support would probably split fairly evenly between Le Pen and Pécresse. But, assuming he gets on the ballot, Zemmour’s enormous ego and desire to turn this campaign into a book selling promotional tour will likely hand the election to Macron.
If he has the support of a quarter of the electorate and only 40% turn out to vote, he will do well. The other candidates need a very large turnout to have any chance.
Valerie Pecresse! Right wing!! All Macron did was sit with Putin at either end of a big long table.
Right-wing, Left-wing, extreme-Right, extreme-Left – it all depends on where you sit on the spectrum yourself.
This is incorrect. Macron absolutely has the capacity to commit NATO to the one thing Putin says he wants: no further expansion.
The US trumpets NATO’s “open door” policy, but that door is easily closable by Macron. Put a law through parliament tomorrow stating that France will never approve any further members of NATO, or any members east of a particular line, or any members of former Soviet-bloc countries. Because NATO requires unanimous consent from existing members before new members are added, this would effectively give Putin exactly what he wants,
Macron is intent on recentering European foreign policy and defense in Europe instead of Washington. This would be an excellent lever with which to do that, particularly if Scholz in Germany were to do the same in his parliament. They could literally commandeer the leadership of NATO from right under Biden’s nose in one fell swoop.
Russia has a similar play using in Erdogan in Turkey (another NATO member). Even if the rest of NATO were to go along, I can not imagine that Turkey would approve Ukrainian admission. Erdogan is far closer to Moscow politically than he is to Brussels.
What concession could Macron offer that could dissuade Putin at this point? If the invasion does not happen now, then the West will rush to fortify Ukraine’s military and its economy so that Russia cannot so easily hold a gun to its head again. Yet Macron seems confident and is very publicly staking his reputation on achieving peace. What is Putin’s price?
Perhaps the answer lies to the East. Delaying until after the Winter Olympics might mean no invasion this year — but Putin can bank Chinese gratitude for not stealing their limelight, plus the recently concluded agreement for closer economic cooperation in the event of punitive Western sanctions. Another year to deepen this relationship, then, next Winter, when the ground is frozen once again…
Just read this in the Economist’s daily brief:
“The Kremlin rejected Emmanuel Macron’s assertion that the French president had secured a pledge from his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to defuse the crisis with Ukraine. “In the current situation, Moscow and Paris could not make a deal,” said a spokesman. “France is not leading NATO,” he added, implying that Mr Macron lacks the standing to avert any conflict despite his best efforts.”
During the final of the last World Cup, in 2018, when France played in the actual final, staged in Moscow, and won, if my memory serves me well, there on the TV were Macron and Putin all smiles. Obviously standing in very close proximity!
I wonder if Putin was a WEF Young Leader for Klaus Schwab too… https://www.weforum.org/people/emmanuel-macron #WEF-is-Spectre
Ta-da! https://www.weforum.org/people/vladimir-putin
Its not over yet…