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Centrists can’t ignore the rise of populism in East Germany

AfD supporters in Dresden. Credit: Getty

August 19, 2024 - 2:30pm

Dresden

Walking through Dresden this weekend, I was bombarded with political messaging. Posters on every lamppost promise anything from “top education” to “law and order” — whatever it takes to draw voters back from the political fringes ahead of regional elections.

The three German states of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia will elect new parliaments in September, and in all three polling suggests that up to half of voters might opt either for the Right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) or the Left-wing populists of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).

Since all three elections are held in the former East Germany, commentators have been quick to suggest that populism may be in the political DNA of those who once lived under socialism. Really, though, what’s happening in the East is happening all over Germany and Europe. Centrists close their eyes to this at their peril.

The biggest concern for Germany’s political establishment is the AfD, which may win all three states with anything between a quarter and a third of the vote. While other issues play a role, immigration is key. Here in Saxony, where the domestic intelligence service classified the local AfD chapter as “Right-wing extremist”, the party’s election posters advocate “remigration” and border controls to neighbouring EU countries.

While immigration has long been seen as a particular issue in the East, a major survey showed that West Germans have similar concerns — be that regarding the increased costs for the welfare state (an issue to 77% in the West and 82% in the East) or conflicts between immigrants and local communities (a worry to 71% of West Germans and 82% of East Germans).

The AfD also came second in Hesse and third in Bavaria last year — both in the former West. In Bavaria, the Free Voters came second with a Right-wing agenda and the centre-right Christian Social Union won. Together they gained over two-thirds of votes for parties that want to reduce immigration.

Look beyond Germany’s borders and the idea that a shift towards the Right requires recent experience of dictatorship looks increasingly absurd. After all, the results of the European elections were widely described as a “Right turn”, as parties of the populist Right won in France, Italy and Austria.

The appeal of the Left-wing BSW under its eponymous leader Sahra Wagenknecht is a different matter. While Left-wing populism is also a political force in other countries such as France, Italy, Greece and Spain, the residual demand for a party to the Left of the Social Democrats (SPD) in eastern Germany since reunification in 1990 is a specific phenomenon.

Wagenknecht herself was born in East Germany, where she joined the ruling Socialist Unity Party in the summer of 1989. She has since been a prominent figure in its successor parties until she left to form her own, the BSW, earlier this year. It instantly gained 6.2% of the vote in the European elections but, unlike the AfD, it can’t claim to be a major player in the former West Germany.

In the East, however, Wagenknecht’s mix of personal charisma, sympathy for Russia, anti-immigration rhetoric and Left-wing social policies attracts many voters. Her BSW is polling between 15 and 19% in each of the three state elections. This is in part due to Wagenknecht’s critical views on the war in Ukraine which resonate with many easterners, especially as the Berlin government ceases to provide fresh funds for Kyiv. Recent surveys have shown that a slim majority of West Germans think Russia’s aggression in Ukraine should be met with military strength, while only a third of East Germans agreed — a much bigger divergence than on immigration.

Of course, there are historical reasons why East Germans continue to think and vote differently than their West German compatriots on issues such as Ukraine. But their general direction of travel away from the centre isn’t unique.

Dissatisfaction with the status quo, particularly on immigration, has driven more and more voters to the political fringes, not just in the East. If centrists want to reclaim the ground they have lost, they should look at eastern Germany as a case study, not an outlier.


Katja Hoyer is a German-British historian and writer. She is the author, most recently, of Beyond the Wall: East Germany, 1949-1990.

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Caradog Wiliams
Caradog Wiliams
1 month ago

What does ‘populism’ mean? From the text it seems to be anything which is not boringly central.

Sean Lothmore
Sean Lothmore
1 month ago

Opposite of ‘elitism’?

El Uro
El Uro
1 month ago

Anything that academics and MSM disagree with is “populism.”

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
1 month ago
Reply to  El Uro

Or far right.

General Store
General Store
1 month ago
Reply to  El Uro

I’m an academic – and a populist and ‘far right’ LOL

El Uro
El Uro
1 month ago
Reply to  General Store

I am a PhD and I got that title when it was given for something.
That’s not the problem. I remember when we were students, I argued with my friends about who was more important, Einstein or a plumber. I tried to explain to them that from a human point of view, they are equal. They are both humans. It’s like, you know, in the Himalayas there is Everest and there are K-8 mountains, the difference is in meters, but all are 8000m above the sea level. I did not convince my friends. By the way, we were all physicists.

I hope, you understand me and we be of one blood, ye and I.

Benedict Waterson
Benedict Waterson
1 month ago

Democratically popular, but not supported by technocratic elites

A Robot
A Robot
1 month ago

I would like to get a better understanding of “sympathy for Russia” as forming a part of Sahra Wagenknecht’s appeal. (Irritatingly, the hyperlink that Katja provided just takes you to an invitation to subscribe to Bloomberg.)
So if it is genuine sympathy for Russia, why is the average Ossi more sympathetic than the average Wessi? So maybe it is not conventional sympathy, but rather the result of the people from the former East Germany being more aware that if you poke the Bear hard enough, you will come to regret it. The Ossis learnt that the hard way, following the East German uprising in 1953.

Martin M
Martin M
1 month ago
Reply to  A Robot

If that is their plan, it is a silly one. That particular bear has a long standing taste for human flesh, and only a well placed bullet will make it safe.

Micael Gustavsson
Micael Gustavsson
1 month ago
Reply to  A Robot

But that doesn’t explain why Poland and Estonia is among the most hawkish on the Russia question. They also have experience of the bear.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
1 month ago

I don’t like the AfD, I think it’s been shown that many senior members have links to Nazi-sympathising elements. Likewise, far left parties are always similarly unpalatable, especially given Germany’s history

However this is almost entirely the establishment’s fault. Take the German car giant VW for example, in its state sanctioned rush to ditch petrol and diesel entire supply chains and the cottage industries around them have collapsed. These people are jobless and angry. The Chancellor may scoff at and lecture citizens on the evils of the extremes but he and his fellow journeymen/women are certainly ensuring Germans like those in the east get the worst deal. Why wouldn’t they vote for people who actually talk to them?

Richard Calhoun
Richard Calhoun
1 month ago

Proportional Representation has delivered huge dissatisfaction amongst the electorate … decades and decades of coalitions ( think Merkel ) meant promises to the electorate were never delivered.
The politicians coalesced and ignored the demands of the electorate .. now the chickens are coming home to roost

Martin M
Martin M
1 month ago

I have always thought proportional representation was a ridiculous way to elect a government.

Micael Gustavsson
Micael Gustavsson
1 month ago
Reply to  Martin M

Sorry, but the first past the post system is far more ridiculous. Compare the Labour representation in the new U.K. Parliament with what it would have been under proportional representation.

Arthur King
Arthur King
1 month ago

Western elites better start listening to ative working class people’s concerns. Or we could see Europe go the way of Hungary.

Martin M
Martin M
1 month ago

Recent surveys have shown that a slim majority of West Germans think Russia’s aggression in Ukraine should be met with military strength, while only a third of East Germans agreed — a much bigger divergence than on immigration. Curious, because Putin would see East Germany as within Russia’s historical “sphere of influence”, so the chances of invasion cannot be ignored.

UnHerd Reader
UnHerd Reader
1 month ago
Reply to  Martin M

He’d have to get through Poland first! Never upset the Poles, they will be your fiercest ally and a fearsome enemy – just witness their Spitfire pilots shooting parachuting Germans in the Battle of Britain. Some of the highest kills rates came from Poles. Once invaded and carved up, never again

Martin M
Martin M
1 month ago
Reply to  UnHerd Reader

I have a great respect for the Poles, but they have the misfortune that their country has often found itself geographically situated between competing blocs.

Graff von Frankenheim
Graff von Frankenheim
1 month ago

I couldn’t find an explanation in this piece regarding the notable absence of significant populism in West Germany. What is it in these peoples’ blood (or national character) that they don’t revolt when their government – for decades – runs roughshod over their freedoms and economic interests?

Andrew F
Andrew F
1 month ago

So Ms Vagenknecht joined East Germany Commies in 1989?
She is either not very bright or likely Russian agent like Merkel.
How come party like her emerged when Russia needs usefull Lenins idiots to destabilise the West?
Anyone who believes that far left economic policy would solve West problems is mad.
All historical evidence is against it.

John Galt
John Galt
1 month ago

Ya ya ya another hit piece about the evils of the “far-right” the “populists” etc etc.

Here’s the thing is that no one bothers studying real history anymore and in the childish rush to ensure that everyone thinks the Nazis are pure 100% evil (which they are) everyone decided to just play up the Holocaust to the exclusion of everything else about the Nazis and Hitler and so everyone has this idea that the Nazis and Hitler rose to power and that their entire platform was just racism and anti-Semitism. The problem is that ignores all the reasons Hitler actually was popular and actually came to power, by addressing legitimate problems and concerns of the German people. As the new meme goes “and then one day for no reason at all Hitler came to power” to express the fact that most of the people who could address issues are trying to close their eyes put their hands over their ears and scream “Racism, far-right, Nazi” in an attempt to avoid any of the actual concerns people has.

The problem is that if things get bad enough, if the problems are ignored long enough, if people see their entire society and life crumbling before their eyes in a wave of post-moderist, moral relativity while the economy collapses people start to think that maybe the cost of the Nazis cannot be worse than the situation in which they find themselves.

Continue to ignore people’s complaints at your peril.

Martin M
Martin M
1 month ago
Reply to  John Galt

Their platform wasn’t just “racism and anti-semitism”. There was that pesky “Conquer Europe” thing too.

Fran Martinez
Fran Martinez
1 month ago

I wonder if what is really happening is that the East Germans are realising that the ‘centrists’ are becoming ever more authoritarian. And knowing authoritarianism first hand, they readily push back.